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According to the Financial Times: Britain and the United States are about to reach a low-tariff trade agreement.On May 7, according to the results of the U.S. 10-year Treasury auction on Tuesday, the undergraduate loan interest rate in the United States for the 2025-26 academic year is expected to be 6.39%. The annual interest rate calculation formula is usually based on the yield of the May auction, plus 2.05 percentage points. The figure of 6.39% is slightly lower than last years 6.53%, but it is still close to the highest level since the Great Recession in 2008. Under federal law, the upper limit of the loan interest rate is 8.25%.Karen Manna of Federated Hermes said on May 7 that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may not be able to satisfy investors thirst for clarity when he speaks to reporters after tomorrows interest rate decision. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, and Powell may face questions about the impact of tariffs on inflation and the economy. The final level of tariffs and their duration remain unknown, which limits Powells ability to provide more clear information. "Forecasting is always difficult, and it is almost impossible to make forecasts when the target is constantly changing." She expects this uncertainty to continue until the Feds June meeting unless there are substantial changes.Pakistans Defense Minister: Conflict between Pakistan and India is "imminent".On May 7, according to British officials and documents, Britain is pressuring the European Union to more clearly support Britains participation in a 150 billion euro defense fund, after the first draft of the proposed security agreement basically did not mention this request. British Prime Minister Starmers government hopes to have firmer words on defense industry cooperation and joint fight against illegal immigration. The two sides are striving to reach an agreement before the London summit scheduled for May 19. British officials said they will work with the European Union in the coming days to draft a final document to send a stronger message on the ambitions of defense industrial policy. Although the draft mentioned exploring the possibility of both sides participating in their respective defense plans, it did not mention Britains goal of obtaining a 150 billion euro fund, nor did it explain how to achieve this goal.

Hurdles lie in wait for GBP/USD near 1.1500; focus is on US Retail Sales

Alina Haynes

Sep 15, 2022 11:50

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The GBP/USD pair is slightly higher after bouncing off 1.1526 during the late New York session. The pair is expected to move in a narrow range as investors wait for the release of U.S. Retail Sales data. After re-testing a low of 1.1480 twice on Wednesday, the asset's overall price rose sharply. The market's expectation of an increase in the United Kingdom's inflation rate was disproven, which boosted the bullishness of the pound.

 

United Kingdom headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 9.9%, which was below both the forecast of 10.2% and the prior data of 10.1%. Even though the economy is suffering greatly from skyrocketing energy costs, policymakers at the Bank of England (BOE) are ecstatic by the recent drop in headline CPI. With this negative number, the British economy can finally breathe a sigh of relief. Formerly, market experts estimated that inflation in the pound zone would hit 13%-14%. Therefore, it would be incorrect to identify the situation as a "depletion of pricing pressure."

 

Following a meteoric ascent, the value of the US dollar index (DXY) has leveled off. The market has begun pricing in a 1% rate hike at the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting in September, thus the DXY is likely to remain at high levels (Fed). Though it has tightened monetary policy over the previous six months, the Federal Reserve is once again in a neutral position. The Fed has reason to be concerned because the actual reading on core CPI, at 6.3%, was higher than expectations of 6.2%.

 

Data on US retail sales will be the main focus of today's trading session. Preliminary reports indicate there has been no uptick in retail demand. Stagnant consumer demand is a bad sign for the economy since it indicates a decline in consumer confidence.

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