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On June 30th, Goldman Sachs Timothy Moe and John Kwon pointed out that a 1% increase in the combined weighting of Samsung and SK Hynix in the South Korean stock index could lead to foreign investors withdrawing approximately $2 billion from the South Korean market, as the US Investment Company Act requires portfolios to meet diversification thresholds. Goldman Sachs also stated that a large influx of funds into leveraged ETFs, coupled with increased options trading and margin retail trading, has created a structural environment where daily price volatility far exceeds what corporate fundamentals can support. South Koreas asset management growth since last year has primarily stemmed from investment returns rather than new capital inflows. As valuations climb, institutional investors mechanical exposure to market volatility is also increasing—often related to hedging strategies. This means that even a mild market correction could trigger a cascade of forced selling.Hong Kong-listed pharmaceutical company Jieankang-B (02617.HK) saw a significant pullback today, falling more than 10% intraday, after surging nearly 40% yesterday.June 30th - It was learned today that, to further promote the inheritance and innovative development of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), four national standards in the field of TCM, proposed and managed by the State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine and approved by the State Administration for Market Regulation (National Standardization Administration), namely, *Basic Theory and Terminology of Traditional Chinese Medicine*, *Diagnostic Vocabulary of Traditional Chinese Medicine Part 1: Tongue Appearance*, *Diagnostic Vocabulary of Traditional Chinese Medicine Part 2: Pulse Appearance*, and *Quality Control Standards for Clinical Research in Traditional Chinese Medicine*, will be implemented from July 1st. The *Quality Control Standards for Clinical Research in Traditional Chinese Medicine* is the first national standard in the field of TCM clinical research, establishing four main contents around the entire clinical research process. The four standards released this time each have their own focus, concentrating on three key areas: basic theory, diagnostic vocabulary, and clinical research. They take into account both the inheritance of traditional connotations and the needs of modern application, addressing long-standing industry problems such as inconsistent TCM terminology and an imperfect quality control system for clinical research, and are conducive to improving the standardization, scientification, and internationalization of the TCM industry.On June 30th, Maybank analysts pointed out that the yens break above the 162 level against the US dollar has triggered intervention risks, as this level is considered a critical threshold for potential official action. In their report, they wrote that it is currently unclear whether intervention is imminent or underway, but officials have consistently issued warning statements. Maybank is closely monitoring the potential for sharp exchange rate fluctuations accompanying intervention, noting that Japan has ample "ammunition" in the form of deposits and securities, far exceeding the scale of the previous intervention which cost approximately US$74 billion. "Currently, we are watching whether the currency pair can hold the 162.00 level in the short term; if it breaks through, the next resistance level is at 164.00." Maybank set support levels at 158.00 and 155.00.Local media reported that a fire broke out at the Hardia oil refinery in India, the cause of which is still unknown.

EUR/USD recovers from low US inflation, EU energy plans, and trade talks

Daniel Rogers

Sep 14, 2022 11:44

截屏2022-09-14 上午9.45.02.png 

 

EUR/USD bids jumped to 0.9980 during Wednesday's Asian session due to US inflation-driven losses near the weekly low. In doing so, the main currency pair consolidates the greatest daily loss in the past two years prior to diplomatic efforts by the European Union (EU).

 

The US inflation data released on Tuesday revived concerns about the Federal Reserve's rapid rate hike and compounded recession fears. China and Russia-related geopolitical concerns are also acting as bearish factors for the EUR/USD. Despite this, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 8.3% year-over-year in August, above market estimates by 0.1%. In contrast, the monthly data increased to 0.1%, surpassing the -0.1% projected and the 0.0% seen in previous reports. The core CPI, or CPI excluding food and energy, also surpassed the 6.1% consensus and 5.9% prior to printing at 6.3% for the relevant month.

 

In contrast, Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment fell to -60.7 in September, compared to the expected -52 and the prior reading of -54.9. The sentiment indicator for Germany declined to -61.9, compared to market expectations of -60 and previous readings of 55.3. Following the announcement of the statistics on Tuesday, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck warned, "We face the potential of a recession next year." Similarly, the German economic outlook for the second half of the year has deteriorated dramatically, and second-half output may stagnate or decline.

 

Notable is the increase in hawkish Fed bets, with next week's 75 basis point (bps) rate hike looking increasingly plausible. At its meeting on September 21, there is a 25% chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce a full 1% increase in the benchmark Fed rate.

 

After US inflation data, the inversion between short-term and long-term US Treasury bond yields deteriorated and exacerbated recession fears, which impacted on the EUR/USD due to the pair's reputation as a risk-barometer. However, following the announcement of the data, the yields on 10-year US Treasury notes increased to 3.412% and those on 2-year bonds increased to 3.76%, up from approximately 3.411% and 3.745%, respectively. In addition, following the release of the US CPI, US stocks saw their worst daily loss in over two years, which affected the pair.

 

Additionally, Sino-American tensions are exacerbated by US Vice President Joe Biden's efforts to highlight China's problems and the drive for better relations with China. In addition, market sentiment and the EUR/USD exchange rate were impacted by concerns that Russia could retaliate brutally after withdrawing from certain regions of Ukraine.

 

Recently, US President Joe Biden declared, "I am unconcerned by today's inflation figure," adding that the stock market is not always a reliable predictor of the strength of the economy. The cause may be tied to the greatest drop in US stocks in two years following the publication of US inflation data.

 

Ursula von der Leyen's plans for energy price capping and US Trade Representative Katherine Tai's visit to the European Union (EU) to see European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis will be vital to track for future developments. Prior to Thursday's US Retail Sales for the month of August and Friday's preliminary September Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reading, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) will also be crucial.


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