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On June 30th, former Bank of Japan executive director Kenzo Yamamoto stated, "The Bank of Japan is currently in a position where it needs to act quickly." When asked whether the central bank would raise interest rates again in December, as most economists surveyed predicted, Yamamoto said, "Given the current level of monetary easing, the next rate hike is likely to occur before then." Yamamoto pointed out that the banks underlying inflation gauge (excluding special factors such as fresh food and government subsidies) has averaged around 3% over the past four years, well above the central banks 2% target. However, Japans key inflation gauge—the core consumer price index excluding only fresh food—remained at 1.4% in May, mainly due to measures introduced by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to alleviate cost-of-living pressures. The Bank of Japan recently stated that price trends remain slightly below 2%. "I would be concerned if the Bank of Japan claimed that its underlying inflation gauge failed to reflect price trends," Yamamoto said. "The Bank of Japan needs to shift its policy focus to curbing inflation."Samsung Electronics is currently up 2%, and SK Hynix is up 1%.June 30th - The British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported that UK food inflation has fallen to its lowest level in 15 months, the latest sign of easing cost pressures that could prevent the Bank of England from raising interest rates. Data released on Tuesday showed that UK food prices rose 2.4% in early June, down from a 2.7% increase the previous month, mainly due to lower inflation for fresh food. Overall retail price increases remained at 1.2%. BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson said, "Thanks to a bumper harvest and intense market competition, retailers have helped keep prices for summer treats like strawberries and ice cream low." Private sector surveys and official data showed that overall inflation in the UK economy had been more stable than previously expected before the initial peace agreement between the US and Iran led to a drop in oil prices. Therefore, the market no longer fully expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates this year, whereas previously it had anticipated three to four hikes of 25 basis points each.Japans inventory levels fell 0.6% month-on-month in May, compared with a previous decline of 0.3%.Japans industrial production fell 1.7% year-on-year in May, compared with a forecast of 1.2% and a previous reading of 2.00%.

Near 0.8670, the EUR/GBP shows a careless drop; attention is on UK employment

Alina Haynes

Sep 13, 2022 11:02

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The EUR/GBP pair displayed a minor pullback on Monday after hitting a four-day low of about 0.8650. After finishing the retreat, it is projected that the cross will start moving downward and that it will quicken its slide after losing the crucial support level of 0.8650. According to incoming job data from the United Kingdom, the asset will probably change.

 

Forecasts indicate that the unemployment rate in the UK will remain at 3.8%. The unemployment rate won't change even if the number of people collecting unemployment benefits will drop by 9.2k. Due to higher payouts in an inflationary environment, the Average Earnings data is the catalyst that families should take into account. The labor cost index would significantly rise from 4.7% to 5%, helping households offset the higher payments brought on by soaring inflation.

 

Additionally, Wednesday's UK inflation figures will be crucial. It is projected that the UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) will stay over 10% at 10.2%. The Bank of England (BOE) will be forced to raise interest rates as a result. The difference in policy between the Bank of England and the European Central Bank could be made worse by this.

 

The bulls of the single currency must contend with rising energy prices. The quantity of energy needed to run heaters and other heat-generating devices will rise over the upcoming winter season in Europe. As a result, the need for energy will rise even further. The ECB unexpectedly raised interest rates by 75 basis points (bps) last week; this week, it will announce more rate rises as long as price pressures exceed the planned rate.

 

Due to rising energy prices, the corporate sector in the eurozone is going through a period of declining profitability. Major corporations' input costs have increased as a result of rising energy prices, reducing their operating margins and forcing some businesses into bankruptcy. Their financial performance is significantly impacted by rising energy prices and interest rates.

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