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On June 30th, former Bank of Japan executive director Kenzo Yamamoto stated, "The Bank of Japan is currently in a position where it needs to act quickly." When asked whether the central bank would raise interest rates again in December, as most economists surveyed predicted, Yamamoto said, "Given the current level of monetary easing, the next rate hike is likely to occur before then." Yamamoto pointed out that the banks underlying inflation gauge (excluding special factors such as fresh food and government subsidies) has averaged around 3% over the past four years, well above the central banks 2% target. However, Japans key inflation gauge—the core consumer price index excluding only fresh food—remained at 1.4% in May, mainly due to measures introduced by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to alleviate cost-of-living pressures. The Bank of Japan recently stated that price trends remain slightly below 2%. "I would be concerned if the Bank of Japan claimed that its underlying inflation gauge failed to reflect price trends," Yamamoto said. "The Bank of Japan needs to shift its policy focus to curbing inflation."Samsung Electronics is currently up 2%, and SK Hynix is up 1%.June 30th - The British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported that UK food inflation has fallen to its lowest level in 15 months, the latest sign of easing cost pressures that could prevent the Bank of England from raising interest rates. Data released on Tuesday showed that UK food prices rose 2.4% in early June, down from a 2.7% increase the previous month, mainly due to lower inflation for fresh food. Overall retail price increases remained at 1.2%. BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson said, "Thanks to a bumper harvest and intense market competition, retailers have helped keep prices for summer treats like strawberries and ice cream low." Private sector surveys and official data showed that overall inflation in the UK economy had been more stable than previously expected before the initial peace agreement between the US and Iran led to a drop in oil prices. Therefore, the market no longer fully expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates this year, whereas previously it had anticipated three to four hikes of 25 basis points each.Japans inventory levels fell 0.6% month-on-month in May, compared with a previous decline of 0.3%.Japans industrial production fell 1.7% year-on-year in May, compared with a forecast of 1.2% and a previous reading of 2.00%.

AUD/NZD tries to recover 1.125; NZ GDP and Australian Employment are under consideration

Alina Haynes

Sep 14, 2022 11:46

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After recovering to approximately 1.1214 during the Tokyo morning session, the AUD/NZD pair is approaching the critical 1.1250 barrier. In a broader sense, the asset is currently gaining after striking a low of 1.1120 last week. In expectation of favorable Australian employment data, market participants utilize any decline as a buying opportunity.

 

According to the consensus, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish a 35k increase in job creations against a 40.9k fall in payrolls. In addition, it is projected that the unemployment rate would remain constant at 3.4%. A similar situation could prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to immediately increase the Official Cash Rate (OCR). The University of Melbourne's release of the Consumer Inflation Expectation statistics is also of major importance.

 

It is projected that the Consumer Inflation Expectation will increase dramatically to 6.7% from 5.7% earlier. This will prompt RBA Governor Philip Lowe to announce a fifth consecutive 50 basis point (bps) rate hike at the monetary policy committee meeting in October.

 

On the front of New Zealand, investors anticipate the announcement of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers on Thursday. Consensus forecasts indicate a 0.2% expansion in the New Zealand economy, as opposed to the 1.2% reported previously. While the quarterly data will result in an expansion of 0.8% as opposed to a decline of 0.2%.