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On May 14th, US international trade commodity prices rose sharply in April, with import prices (market expectation +1.0%) rising 1.9% month-over-month and export prices (market expectation +1.1%) surging 3.3%. This much-anticipated increase indicates that the ongoing conflict with Iran continues to exert pressure on input costs, a point already reflected in the Feds Beige Book in early April as a compression of corporate profit margins. Core import prices (excluding fuel) had already begun to rise significantly before the Iran conflict, and this months 0.8% increase was the same as in February, but this may already include the secondary impact of rising energy prices. Food and feed prices were also significantly affected by rising oil prices, rising 1.1% in March and then another 0.9% in April. Industrial supplies and raw materials (excluding fuel) rose 1.6%; fuel prices surged 16.3%. Capital goods prices were also worrying, rising 1.1%. Consumer goods rose 0.4%, a relatively moderate increase, but still high; automobile prices fell slightly by 0.1%.On May 14th, executives from over ten well-known American companies accompanied President Trump on his visit to China, including Apple CEO Tim Cook, Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen Huang, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and Qualcomm President and CEO Cristiano Amon. In an interview, Amon stated that the Chinese economy is dynamic.The SC crude oil futures contract fell 2.00% during the day, currently trading at 617.40 yuan per barrel.The European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre reports a 5.5-magnitude earthquake in the Colombian region.May 14th - Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has increased this week, but analysts warn that more vessels are turning off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) tracking signals during transit. According to Lloyds List, a shipping publication, tanker owners are preparing for prolonged shipping disruptions as regional risks remain high. Current traffic volume is still far below pre-conflict levels. At that time, approximately 130 vessels carrying about 20% of the worlds oil and gas supply passed through the strait daily.

AUD/NZD has not changed from 1.1230 despite RBA Lowe's testimony

Daniel Rogers

Sep 16, 2022 14:54

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There has been no movement in the AUD/NZD pair throughout the Tokyo session despite evidence from Philip Lowe, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Despite a recent dip, the asset is trading within a narrow range of 1.1220 to 1.1232. Tuesday's attempt to break through 1.1258 was unsuccessful, and the asset subsequently fell. The likelihood of a negative reversal has grown due to the presence of strong selling pressure at current elevated levels.

 

As Lowe testified, he plans to do so, inflationary pressures will be reduced. The RBA is not as eager as some other central banks would be to attain price stability if it meant sacrificing economic development.

 

Although the central bank is not following a set course, market participants should keep in mind that the RBA has pegged an objective for the Official Cash Rate (OCR) of 3.85%. RBA Despite his conviction that "labor cost rise is consistent with inflation returning to goal," Lowe has painted a bleak outlook for the economy.

 

Earlier, the Aussie bulls were under pressure after weaker-than-expected job data was released in Australia. Statistics on Employment Change fell short, coming in at 33.5k instead of the expected 35k. The economy reported 40,900 job losses in July. The increase in the unemployment rate was also quite large, coming in at 3.5% compared to 3.4% forecasted and 3.4% reported previously.

 

As for New Zealand, the bullish Business NZ PMI data released early in the Tokyo session has not caused a notable reaction from kiwi buyers. Numbers for the economy were better than expected, coming in at 54.9 versus 52.5 and 52.7.