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UBS Group: Global oil demand is expected to hit a peak this month and then decline slightly in the following months.UBS: OPEC+ is expected to pause its production adjustments unless there are larger, sustained, unexpected supply disruptions.Futures data from August 11th revealed that crude oil prices fluctuated downward in early August, leading to a decrease in inquiries for large gasoline and diesel orders. New shipping orders totaled 199,000 tons, a 22.87% decrease from the same period last month. This included 28,000 tons of new orders for 92# gasoline, 64,000 tons for 95# gasoline, and 107,000 tons for diesel. Regarding prices, based on spot or biweekly delivery orders, the transaction price for 95# gasoline is currently around 7,750 yuan/ton, and for diesel around 6,600 yuan/ton.Futures News, August 11th. Economies.com analysts present their latest analysis: WTI crude oil futures prices continued their decline during the previous trading day, maintaining a clear short-term bearish trend and moving along a secondary downward trend line. With prices stabilizing below the 50-day moving average (EMA), selling pressure remains robust. These technical factors suggest that bullish momentum remains weak, with bearish dominance persisting. We anticipate continued weakness in WTI crude oil futures prices.Futures News, August 11th. Economies.com analysts latest analysis: Brent crude oil futures prices closed lower in the previous trading day, attempting to break below the key support level of 66.00. Under the influence of a dominant bearish trend, prices are currently trading along a minor trendline, demonstrating the strength and dominance of this downtrend. This negative pressure is exacerbated by the continued pressure below the EMA50. Furthermore, the RSI indicator has shown a negative signal after crossing overbought levels, further confirming the current bearish sentiment.

GBP/JPY Surpasses 161.00 Due to Firmer Rates, Discussions of UK Tax Cuts, and Concentration on BoE

Daniel Rogers

Jan 30, 2023 15:32

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GBP/JPY demonstrates moderate gains near 161.00 as it reflects the market's cautious disposition at the beginning of a key week that includes multiple monetary policy meetings and important data. Despite this, the cross-currency pair sustains its two-week recovery on the back of rising US Treasury bond yields and hawkish Bank of England forecasts (BoE).

 

Despite a tiny bid at press time, 10-year US Treasury rates remain uninspired about 3.51% after reversing a two-week decline last Friday. Concerns surrounding the Bank of England's 0.50 percentage point interest rate increase to contain inflation appear to keep GBP/JPY purchasers optimistic.

 

Notably, concerns regarding the United Kingdom's opposition to tax cuts appear to help the pair's upward momentum. Reuters quotes British finance minister Jeremy Hunt as saying on Friday that he plans to prioritize corporate tax cuts whenever public finances permit.

 

GBP/JPY sellers, on the other hand, are hopeful due to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) continuing efforts to defend the Yield Curve Control (YCC) with recently higher inflation data from Tokyo. Japan's foundations may be on par with those of the United Kingdom, despite the former's greater stability.

 

The GBP/JPY exchange rate may experience a short-term rebound in the near future as a result of cautious optimism on the market and reduced fears of UK worker strikes. Nonetheless, the Bank of England's (BoE) rate hike and efforts to limit inflation without harming productivity will draw considerable attention.