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Chart: Speculative Sentiment Index on Friday, March 20, 2026Deutsche Bank: This new benchmark (forecast) carries two-way risks. If tensions in the Middle East ease quickly, the ECB may not raise rates at all. Alternatively, if there is a more prolonged disruption to energy supplies, the 2.50% rate may simply be a transitional phase towards a clearly tightening stance.March 20th Futures News: On March 20th, the Shanghai Futures Exchanges energy and chemical warehouse receipts and changes are as follows: 1. Pulp futures warehouse receipts: 165,075 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 2. Pulp futures mill warehouse receipts: 17,000 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 3. Offset paper futures warehouse receipts: 360 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 4. Offset paper futures mill warehouse receipts: 4,160 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 5. Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. 6. Petroleum asphalt futures warehouse receipts: 36,100 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 7. Petroleum asphalt futures factory warehouse receipts: 57,880 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 8. Medium-sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts: 3,511,000 barrels, unchanged from the previous trading day; 9. Low-sulfur fuel oil futures warehouse receipts: 43,120 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 10. Low-sulfur fuel oil futures factory warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day.March 20th - Rising oil prices are a headache for overseas importers, but they may be shifting the burden onto US assets. Following the US-Israeli attack on Iran, global oil import costs have increased, and the currencies of most major economies have been impacted against the US dollar. This double whammy creates a situation where, with a stronger dollar and soaring oil prices, overseas countries and companies may ultimately have to sell off their holdings of US stocks and bonds to pay for the suddenly more expensive oil. This is a risk worth monitoring, especially given the growing share of the US market held by foreign countries and governments. Bridget Kurana, a portfolio manager at Wellington Management, stated that so far, foreign investors havent needed to liquidate US assets to finance higher energy costs. However, if oil prices remain high, these countries (such as Japan and South Korea) may need to reduce their holdings of US stocks and bonds to raise funds for energy imports.Deutsche Bank: It expects the ECB to raise interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and September, whereas its previous forecast was to keep rates unchanged in 2026.

The EUR/USD exchange rate fluctuates below 1.0850 as focus shifts to US PPI and Retail Sales data

Alina Haynes

Jan 16, 2023 10:59

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As U.S. markets are closed on Monday in honor of Martin Luther King Jr.'s birthday, the EUR/USD pair is attempting to establish a trend. As investors anticipate the release of Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales data from the United States, the main currency pair is trading below 1.0840.

 

S&P500 futures had some selling pressure early in the Asian session, but have since recovered their losses and turned positive, signaling an improvement in risk appetite on the market. Under the influence of a positive market mentality, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is attempting to break below the immediate support level of 101.75.

 

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed in December, bolstering the case for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to announce a smaller interest rate increase in the near future. As the Fed seeks to end policy tightening, the USD Index may continue its downward trend for an extended period of time in the future.

 

According to analysts at Wells Fargo, the conclusion of monetary tightening should put an end to the dollar's advances by early 2023. In fact, we believe the trade-weighted dollar has already reached its cyclical peak." Once the Fed begins reducing its policy interest rate at the beginning of the following year, they anticipate an even more pronounced USD depreciation in 2024.

 

On Wednesday, investors will focus on the release of US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. The street anticipated a decline as a result of the decline in gasoline prices, which has enabled manufacturers to drop prices at factory gates as a result of reduced production costs. In addition, price reductions will counteract a decline in retail demand. Additionally, Retail Sales figures will be extensively examined.

 

Meanwhile, Eurozone investors are pleased that Germany's preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded 1.9% on an annualized rate in 2022, compared to the market consensus of 1.8% and the previous release of 2.5%.

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