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July 29th - Joe Kalish, chief macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, predicts the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by September, making this weeks meeting crucial. With the market already pricing in a rate hike this year, Kalish asks rhetorically, "Why wait?" He believes a rate hike would solidify the Feds independence and enhance its credibility. However, he also points out that there are ample reasons to keep rates unchanged, including the latest inflation data and maintaining stable inflation expectations.On July 29th, BNP Paribas Markets 360 team expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, "although the possibility of an unexpected rate hike cannot be completely ruled out." The banks baseline scenario is a rate hike in December, but "there is a significant risk that policymakers will strengthen inflation language in the FOMC statement, which would be tantamount to suggesting a September rate hike is on the agenda." Language regarding price stability will be a focus of discussion at this meeting, and the statement will reflect a willingness to act if necessary. However, even without such language in the statement, a September rate hike is not ruled out; conversely, the inclusion of such language does not guarantee a September rate hike. At the press conference, Warsh is expected to largely follow the pattern of June: a brief opening, concise answers, and very limited forward guidance. Assuming the statement is not significantly different from June, we believe the opening remarks will closely follow Warshs testimony to Congress, and his statements on inflation and labor data, the economic outlook, and his commitment to restoring price stability will also be consistent with his testimony.July 29th - Shanghais central urban area is accelerating its efforts to acquire existing homes. On July 26th, 2026, reporters learned from the Shanghai Municipal Housing Administration Bureau that since the pilot program for acquiring existing homes for use in affordable rental housing was launched in February this year, Xuhui, Pudong, and Jingan districts have actively explored this approach. As of July 25th, the three pilot districts had acquired a total of 551 existing homes, of which 16 households have already completed the replacement and purchase of new homes. Huangpu, Changning, Hongkou, Putuo, and Yangpu districts subsequently expanded the program in May, actively serving residents home replacement needs, promoting the effective flow of existing housing assets, and accelerating the supply of affordable rental housing in the central urban area.On July 29th, Gary Puzzio, Chief Investment Officer of Private Wealth in the US at CIBC, stated that Warshs hawkish stance on price stability, coupled with a batch of weak data (CPI and non-farm payrolls), may be enough to keep the Federal Reserve on hold. This aligns with market sentiment. "Interest rate futures point to a no-go at the July meeting," Puzzio said, "but expectations for a September rate hike have been rising. Given the current geopolitical context, September is still a long time away, and the Fed will have more data to process between now and September 16th."According to data released by the Petroleum Institute of Japan (PAJ) on July 29th, as of the week ending July 25th, Japans commercial crude oil inventories stood at 10.8845 million kiloliters, a decrease of 320,605 kiloliters from the previous weeks 11.2051 million kiloliters. Refinery operational capacity (BPSD) utilization was 88.7%, compared to 89.6% the previous week. Refinery design capacity (BPCD) utilization was 78.0%, compared to 78.8% the previous week.

AUD/NZD Extends Range Above 1.0950 As New Zealand Trade Balance Data Is Positive

Alina Haynes

Jan 30, 2023 15:29

AUD:NZD.png 

 

After opening with a gap down to 1.0926, the AUD/NZD pair displayed a robust recovery in the early Asian session. The cross is gaining ground despite the publication of upbeat New Zealand Trade Balance numbers.

 

December exports grew to $6.72 billion from $6.34 billion, while imports declined to $7.19 billion from $8.52 billion. The annual Trade Balance came in at -14.46 billion New Zealand dollars, as opposed to the previously stated -14.98 billion.

 

The New Zealand Employment Statistics, which will be issued on Wednesday, will provide investors with direction. It is projected that the Employment Change (Q4) will decrease to 0.7% from 1.3% in the previous publication. The unemployment rate is anticipated to hold steady at 3.3%. As a result of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to raise interest rates, the New Zealand economy is unable to create significant employment opportunities (RBNZ).

 

The labor cost index statistics will otherwise dominate the conversation. The employment bills index (annual) is anticipated to rise to 4.45 from 3.8% previously. And the expected quarterly figure is 1.3%, up from 1.1% in the previous report. Since households would have more liquid assets, a rise in labor expenses might keep inflationary pressures on the rise.

 

Notably, the New Zealand economy has shown no indications of inflation abating, as the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Q4) grew to 7.2% from the consensus forecast of 7.1%, and an increase in retail demand will intensify inflationary pressures.

 

On the Australian front, investors are keeping a tight eye on Tuesday's retail sales report, which is expected to reveal a 0.3% fall from the previous release of 1.4%. This could reduce difficulties for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which is battling to contain the persistent inflation in the Australian economy.


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