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On August 12th, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) appeared poised to further cut its official interest rate next week, with economists largely focused on the central banks future forecasts. ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner stated that a 25 basis point cut to 3.00% appeared certain. As weak high-frequency data increasingly emerged in hard economic data, the RBNZ could shift to a more dovish stance, ultimately lowering the official rate to 2.5%. However, she added that a sudden shift in that direction next week might be premature.The Hang Seng Tech Indexs decline widened to 1%, and the Hang Seng Index is now down 0.37%.On August 12, the Suzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued the "Notice on Further Expanding the Scope of Housing Provident Fund Use." This notice states that if a household applying for a housing provident fund loan (excluding commercial-to-public loans) to purchase their first or second self-occupied home has sold the home, the number of loans can be reduced accordingly. For households using housing provident fund loans to purchase their first or second self-occupied home, the down payment ratio will be adjusted to no less than 15% of the total purchase price. A household providing housing provident fund loans must pay for property management fees for self-occupied homes within the citys administrative area and can apply for a housing provident fund withdrawal from any household property. No housing provident fund withdrawals must have been made in the twelve months prior to the application. Withdrawals can be made once a year, with the total withdrawal amount not exceeding the actual annual property fees paid. Individual housing provident fund accounts must maintain at least one months worth of contributions based on the latest contribution base (excluding new employee subsidies).According to the Wall Street Journal: An explosion at a U.S. Steel (XN) plant killed two people and injured ten.Futures News, August 12th: Crude oil prices have recently stabilized and fluctuated after declining from high levels. The market awaits the US-Russia negotiations, with investors cautiously viewing the talks. There are divergent views on the negotiations, with bulls and bears remaining divided, and the market is generally on the sidelines. As the date of the talks approaches, more and more details are being released. Russia and Ukraine are likely to use territory as a bargaining chip, but this increases the difficulty of the negotiations. Therefore, against this backdrop, crude oil prices are showing resistance to declines, with clear support below, and a volatile market in the short term.

AUD/NZD Extends Range Above 1.0950 As New Zealand Trade Balance Data Is Positive

Alina Haynes

Jan 30, 2023 15:29

AUD:NZD.png 

 

After opening with a gap down to 1.0926, the AUD/NZD pair displayed a robust recovery in the early Asian session. The cross is gaining ground despite the publication of upbeat New Zealand Trade Balance numbers.

 

December exports grew to $6.72 billion from $6.34 billion, while imports declined to $7.19 billion from $8.52 billion. The annual Trade Balance came in at -14.46 billion New Zealand dollars, as opposed to the previously stated -14.98 billion.

 

The New Zealand Employment Statistics, which will be issued on Wednesday, will provide investors with direction. It is projected that the Employment Change (Q4) will decrease to 0.7% from 1.3% in the previous publication. The unemployment rate is anticipated to hold steady at 3.3%. As a result of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to raise interest rates, the New Zealand economy is unable to create significant employment opportunities (RBNZ).

 

The labor cost index statistics will otherwise dominate the conversation. The employment bills index (annual) is anticipated to rise to 4.45 from 3.8% previously. And the expected quarterly figure is 1.3%, up from 1.1% in the previous report. Since households would have more liquid assets, a rise in labor expenses might keep inflationary pressures on the rise.

 

Notably, the New Zealand economy has shown no indications of inflation abating, as the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Q4) grew to 7.2% from the consensus forecast of 7.1%, and an increase in retail demand will intensify inflationary pressures.

 

On the Australian front, investors are keeping a tight eye on Tuesday's retail sales report, which is expected to reveal a 0.3% fall from the previous release of 1.4%. This could reduce difficulties for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which is battling to contain the persistent inflation in the Australian economy.


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