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Germanys October PPI rose 1.8% year-on-year, compared with an expected decline of 1.9% and a previous decline of 1.70%.Germanys October PPI rose 0.1% month-on-month, in line with expectations and down from -0.10% previously.Switzerlands trade balance in October was CHF 4.319 billion, revised from CHF 4.073 billion to CHF 3.99 billion in the previous month.On November 20th, analysts stated that Moodys will review Italys credit rating on Friday, potentially offering its first upgrade in nearly 25 years, reflecting growing market confidence in the public finances of the Eurozones third-largest economy. In May, Moodys upgraded Italys rating outlook from "stable" to "positive," while maintaining its "Baa3" rating, the lowest investment grade. At the time, Moodys cited stronger-than-expected fiscal performance and a more stable political environment as the main reasons for the outlook adjustment. Subsequently, the Meloni government further lowered its 2025 budget deficit target to 3% of GDP, complying with the EUs maximum deficit limit a year ahead of schedule. Since May 2002, when Moodys downgraded Italy from Aa3 to Aa2, it has not upgraded its rating. And since its downgrade in October 2018, it has remained unchanged. UniCredit stated that a potential upgrade would further confirm the continued positive trend in the overall assessment of Italys creditworthiness. Among major rating agencies, Moodys remains the most cautious.Barclays has raised its year-end 2026 target for the S&P 500 to 7,400, up from its previous forecast of 7,000.

With eyes on Fed's Powell and BoC's Mackem, USD/CAD falls toward 1.3400 as oil prices rise

Alina Haynes

Feb 07, 2023 15:56

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Tuesday morning's trading near 1.3430 represents the first negative daily performance in four days for the USD/CAD pair, extending losses near the intraday low. Despite this, the Loonie pair remains close to 12-day highs as traders await comments from Governor Tiff Macklem of the Bank of Canada (BoC) and Chairman Jerome Powell of the Federal Reserve (Fed).

 

The recent decline of the quote may be related to the market's cautious optimism in light of receding economic fears. The strengthening of WTI crude oil prices, Canada's principal export commodity, might exacerbate the downturn.

 

WTI crude oil rises 0.40 percent to $75.00, extending yesterday's rebound from a two-month low. The recovery of the price of black gold may be related to diminishing fears of an economic slowdown in the United States as well as recent positive news reports regarding Sino-American ties.

 

Even though the US economic calendar was fairly silent, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and President Joe Biden's growth optimism appeared to weigh on US Dollar bulls. Despite this, it appears that hawkish Fed deliberations strengthen US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar. In an interview with Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic noted, "The robust job market likely indicates 'we have a little bit more work to do.'"

 

A dash on the US diplomatic visit to Beijing and China's angry response to the US shooting down its balloon by labeling it as a spying attempt triggered the market's risk-off mentality and lifted the USD/CAD pair the day before. Recent comments by US Vice President Joe Biden appear reassuring, as he noted, "The balloon incident does not impair US-China relations."

 

After a two-day rebound from the monthly low, the 10-year US Treasury bond struggled for direction at 3.63%, while S&P 500 Futures saw minor gains reflecting the prevalent sentiment.

 

Moreover, bullish readings of the Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index for January, 60.1, compared to 55.2 expected and 49.9 prior, appear to exert downward pressure on the USD/CAD exchange rate.

 

Future USD/CAD traders may react swiftly to the December Canadian trade statistics. However, the words of Bank of Canada Governor Macklem, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, and US Vice President Joe Biden's State of the Union (SOTU) address will be crucial for providing clear directives.