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August 30th - A press conference on the "8.26" mudslide disaster in Gyirong, Tibet, was held today (August 30th) in Gyirong Town. On the morning of August 26th, a mudslide on the Nepalese side caused significant casualties and missing persons at the Gyirong Port in Gyirong County, Shigatse City, Tibet. Analysis indicates that the most prominent risk hindering the disaster response was the landslide dam located above the core area of the border crossing. The dam has already overflowed and is currently in stable condition, with a low probability of a complete collapse.On August 30th, a press conference was held in Gyirong Town, Tibet, regarding the "8.26" mudslide disaster. On the morning of August 26th, a mudslide occurred on the Nepalese side, causing significant casualties and missing persons at the Gyirong Port in Gyirong County, Shigatse City, Tibet. The conference explained that this disaster was caused by glacial instability due to long-term climate warming. The disaster was sudden, with a large peak flow, rapid movement, strong destructive power, and a wide impact area, representing a new and significant characteristic of cryosphere disasters in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and surrounding areas. Monitoring revealed that the ice avalanche took only about 6 to 7 minutes from its occurrence to its impact on the Gyirong Port in my country.On August 30, it was learned from a press conference held by the Information Office of the Peoples Government of Tibet Autonomous Region that, through a joint comprehensive search and comparison of clues conducted by multiple departments including foreign affairs, public security, culture and tourism, and emergency response, 261 missing foreign nationals have been identified in the investigation of the Gyirong landslide disaster in Tibet. These individuals come from 23 countries: Kazakhstan (1), Malaysia (3), Nepal (104), India (49), South Africa (4), Ireland (2), Estonia (2), Germany (3), Russia (3), France (2), Finland (1), Netherlands (2), Latvia (33), Lithuania (1), Portugal (1), Ukraine (1), Spain (1), Hungary (1), United Kingdom (15), Canada (6), United States (18), Australia (6), and New Zealand (2). The Chinese side has notified the relevant embassies and consulates in China.According to Icelandic Broadcasting Corporation: Partial results of Icelands referendum on restarting EU accession negotiations show that the "yes" vote is leading by a narrow margin.On August 30th, it was learned from a press conference held by the Information Office of the Peoples Government of Tibet Autonomous Region that the cause of the mudslide disaster in Tibet has been determined. The Cryosphere Emergency Disaster Reduction Team of the Chengdu Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, through analysis of remote sensing monitoring data and on-site feedback data, combined with field surveys and visits, concluded that: at approximately 10:52 AM Beijing time on August 26th, a glacier on the southern slope of Mount Lamtang in Nepal broke off at an altitude of approximately 5200 meters, causing an ice-rock collapse. The debris flow rapidly fell from a high altitude to approximately 4000 meters, eroding the mountain and forming a giant mudslide. After traveling at high speed for approximately 22 kilometers, it reached the Gyirong Port in China at an altitude of approximately 1800 meters, resulting in the razing of approximately 0.7 square kilometers and 27 buildings and related facilities in the area.

EUR/USD falls to 1.0850 as German/US Data escalates the ECB-Fed Conflict

Alina Haynes

Feb 01, 2023 15:32

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Mid-1.0800s intraday support is reestablished for EUR/USD on Wednesday morning, reversing Tuesday's rebound gains. This demonstrates the market's uneasiness ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. German economic risks to the EU, as well as mixed data from the United States and fears that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will yet support hawks, might potentially weigh on the currency.

 

The Eurozone's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (Q4) climbed 0.1% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) on Tuesday, compared to 0.0% expected and 0.3% earlier. The year-over-year statistics were also good for the bloc, topping the market consensus of 1.8% to achieve 1.9%, compared to 2.3% previously. Nevertheless, German Retail Sales decreased 5.3% month-over-month in December, which was substantially worse than expected. Earlier in the week, the German GDP likewise disappointed EUR/USD pair speculators.

 

In contrast, the US Employment Cost Index (ECI) for the fourth quarter declined to 1.0% compared to market estimates of 1.1% and previous readings of 1.2%. In addition, the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence index dropped from 108.3 to 107.10 in January. The US Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January, which rose to 44.3 vs 41 expected and 44.9 previous readings, does not merit substantial attention.

 

Aside from the United States, higher profit reports from industry leaders including General Motors, Exxon, and McDonald's alleviated the economic downturn and lifted Wall Street indices. Nevertheless, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq all reported daily gains of greater than 1.0% on the previous trading day. In contrast, the yields on 10-year US Treasury notes reversed a three-day rise and returned to 3.51 percent, while their two-year equivalents plummeted to 4.20 percent.

 

It should be noted that JP Morgan's annual survey uncovered a reduction in inflation fears and a rise in recession fears, which tests the risk profile in the middle of pre-Fed anxiety. In spite of this, the world's largest rating agency, Fitch, forecasts that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) would moderate to the mid-3.0% band in 2023 and the high-2.0% range in 2024, putting pressure on EUR/USD bears.

 

As a result of these variables, S&P 500 Futures see minor losses, while US Treasury bond rates remain sluggish and halt their slide from the previous day. This allows the EUR/USD pair to prepare for the Federal Reserve's dovish rate hike of 0.25 percentage points.

 

While the 0.25 basis point Fed rate hike is virtually expected and has been priced in, EUR/USD traders will also pay close attention to January activity data and Jerome Powell's ability to defend aggressive rate hikes.


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