• English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
Futures News, September 14th: Crude oil prices were volatile over the weekend, and domestic fuel oil transactions were sluggish at high levels, with trading slightly declining. However, the surge in the oil market at the open provided some support for oil prices. Industry players remained cautious, and it is expected that the focus of domestic fuel oil negotiations today will be on stabilization after the weekends decline, with most transactions driven by immediate needs.Oil pipeline closures, meeting postponements, ship attacks: A quick overview of pre-market crude oil prices converted between domestic and international markets in one chart.On September 14th, it was learned from industry sources that the Securities Association of China recently issued a notice to all securities companies, soliciting industry opinions on the "Implementation Rules for Integrity Practice of Securities Business Institutions and Their Staff (Revised Draft for Public Comment)," with a feedback deadline of September 29th. Article 13 clarifies the salary recovery and deduction mechanism, stipulating that once an institution confirms that a staff member has violated integrity practices, it can recover and deduct the salary in accordance with the labor contract and company policy. A positive incentive mechanism will also be established simultaneously, giving priority to those who proactively resist the transfer of benefits and report significant integrity risks in performance evaluations and promotions. This combination of recovery and incentives creates a more complete closed-loop constraint mechanism.As of 8:30 AM Beijing time, spot platinum was down 0.10% and spot palladium was down 0.16%.On September 14th, a research report from CICC stated that looking ahead to the year, we believe oil prices may have a "supply floor" and a "demand ceiling." On the one hand, the recovery of Middle Eastern crude oil production since the third quarter has fallen short of expectations, and the recent escalation of geopolitical tensions will prompt the market to reassess the sustainability of Middle Eastern crude oil supply losses, supporting a rise in the "supply floor" for oil prices. On the other hand, domestic demand remains weak, and the summer demand recovery should not be linearly extrapolated; a "demand ceiling" may emerge after oil prices break through $100. Based on the above, we have raised our 4Q26 Brent crude oil price forecast to $85/barrel (from $80/barrel in June) to reflect a more sustained supply gap and lower inventory levels. In the refined oil market, short-term increases in oil prices and freight rates are impacting refining margins in Europe and Asia, and the crack spreads for gasoline and other refined oil products are under pressure to decline from their high levels. In contrast, we suggest paying attention to the structural shortage and resilience of crack spreads in the overseas diesel market.

USD/CHF Continues Fed-Induced Declines Toward 0.9020 Support; Central Banks and US NFP in Focus

Daniel Rogers

Feb 02, 2023 16:13

During Thursday's Asian session, USD/CHF remained depressed at the lowest levels since August 2021 as bears enjoy a three-day slump near 0.9065. The Swiss Franc (CHF) pair extends its losses triggered by the US Federal Reserve as market participants expect the main central bank decision and January employment statistics.

 

The USD/CHF retested a multi-day low the day before in response to dismal US data and the Fed's dovish rate hike.

 

Despite the fact that the Fed matched market expectations by raising the benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage points, the statement that inflation "has eased but remains high" impacted on the U.S. currency.

 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's statement that "We may pronounce that a deflationary process has begun" contributed to the depreciation of the US usd. In addition, the policymaker acknowledges the need for a rate cut by the end of 2023 if inflation decreases much faster than projected. Powell of the Federal Reserve stated that a couple more rate hikes are still required to achieve this.

 

Elsewhere, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to its lowest level since June 2020, reaching 47.4 in January compared to the forecasted 48.0 and the prior reading of 48. In addition, the ADP Employment Change dropped to a one-year low with 106K, compared to the 178K market forecast and the upwardly revised previous figure of 253K. In contrast, the number of JOLTS Job Openings grew to 11.01 million in December, exceeding both the average estimate of 10.25 million and the previous figure of 10.44 million.

 

Wall Street soared against this backdrop as 10-year US Treasury yields fell the most in two weeks. Note that benchmark interest rates are licking their wounds near 3.41 percent, while S&P 500 Futures are showing slight increases as of press time.

 

Prior to the monetary policy meetings of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England, USD/CHF traders should pay attention to market movements affected by these central banks (BoE). However, significant attention should be paid to Friday's US Employment report. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which is expected to decline to 185K from 223K earlier, will be an important indicator to track.