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On September 14th, Israeli Defense Minister Katz issued a statement on the 13th, local time, stating that the IDF plans to maintain control of the Ali Tahir Heights in southern Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah or any other party from returning and re-establishing a foothold. Katz stated that the heights remain part of Israels so-called "safe zone" in southern Lebanon, and the IDF will not withdraw or redeploy until Hezbollah is disarmed throughout Lebanon. Katz asserted, "Anyone who approaches the heights will be eliminated."Musk: I am confident that SpaceX will deploy the Nvidia VR NLV72 AI computer in space next year.September 14th - According to CMEs "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 13.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 86.2%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by October is 6.9%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 50.1%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 42.9%.On September 14th, Argentine Defense Minister Carlos Alberto Presti stated on the 13th that the US government has not taken sides in the sovereignty dispute over the Falkland Islands (Malvinas Islands). In a media interview on the 13th, Presti said that the US government supports a peaceful resolution to the Falklands sovereignty dispute and has not favored Argentina or the UK.On September 14th, according to the Financial Times, British Prime Minister Burnham will pledge to business leaders on Monday that the government will be a "partner in economic growth" and acknowledges the need for a cultural shift in the UK to encourage entrepreneurship. He will hold a roundtable discussion with entrepreneurs from sectors such as artificial intelligence, fintech, healthtech, manufacturing, and quantum computing, followed by a reception hosted by executives from several large companies at Downing Street. Downing Street stated that the event will focus on how the government can streamline the processes of starting, developing, and investing, while ensuring that any resulting economic benefits reach local communities. On Sunday, Burnham said that the UK has the talent, universities, and visionary communities needed for success, but to unlock its full potential, "We need a cultural shift in how businesses operate in the UK."

As the Fed confirms the disinflationary process, the USD/CAD exchange rate may fall to 1.3250

Alina Haynes

Feb 02, 2023 16:05

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The USD/CAD pair resumed its two-day losing run after slipping below 1.3270 in Asia. Following two days of declining US inflation, the Canadian dollar fell on Wednesday.

 

The US Manufacturing PMI (Jan) dropped for a third consecutive month to 47.4, below the consensus estimate of 48.0 and the prior reading of 48.4. The Index of New Orders for Manufactured Goods, which indicates future demand, decreased to 42.5 from 46.1 and 45.1. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated in his comments that consumer spending has slowed significantly and that the central bank will now focus on labor cost balance. The US Employment Cost Index (Q4) fell by 1%.

 

The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) have decreased for three consecutive months, while economic activity and consumer spending have slowed, signaling deflation. Powell stated, "Can now for the first time announce, 'The disinflationary process has begun.'"

 

The market participants' risk appetite has raised the demand for risky assets. After a solid performance on Wednesday, S&P500 futures increased in the Asian morning. The US Dollar Index (DXY) found limits following a decline to about 100.80 amid risk-on market mood. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries has surpassed 3.41 percent.

 

Monthly GDP (Nov) data for the Canadian dollar were 0.1%, above the consensus forecast of flat. Since the Bank of Canada (BoC) ceased policy tightening after increasing interest rates to 4.50 percent, the Canadian economy has not declined on a monthly basis.

 

After plunging to nearly $76, the price of oil is recovering. Black gold dipped on Wednesday after the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported 4.14 million oil inventories for the week ending January 27. Because Canada is a major oil exporter to the United States, lower oil prices influence the Canadian Dollar.


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