EUR/USD
1.15384
-0.026%
Gold
4403.92
0.822%
Oil
82.339
0.187%
USD/JPY
159.328
0.019%
GBP/USD
1.35108
0.027%
GBP/JPY
215.271
0.046%
Real-time News
August 12th - According to statistics from the Guangdong Branch of the General Administration of Customs, in the first seven months of this year, Guangdongs foreign trade import and export reached 6.49 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, accounting for 21.6% of the national total and contributing 24.9% to the national import and export growth. Guangdongs import and export scale continues to rank first in the country. Specifically, exports reached 3.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.8%; imports reached 2.69 trillion yuan, an increase of 37.4%; and the trade surplus was 1.11 trillion yuan, narrowing by 24.5%. Looking at the monthly data, the import and export scale has maintained double-digit growth from January to July this year. In July alone, Guangdongs import and export reached 1.01 trillion yuan, an increase of 19%, maintaining its position above one trillion yuan after breaking the one trillion yuan mark for the first time in June. Specifically, exports reached 582.48 billion yuan, an increase of 7%; and imports reached 423.46 billion yuan, an increase of 40.7%.The onshore yuan closed at 6.7456 against the US dollar at 16:30 on August 12, up 1 point from the previous trading day.On August 12th, a research report from Yide Futures pointed out that ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have recently encountered frequent attacks, increasing navigational risks. Shipping data shows that only 6 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday (August 10th), and the daily number of ships passing through has been 11 over the past 10 days, significantly lower than the normal level of 125-140 ships. Our tracked shipping data also shows that both Middle Eastern seaborne exports and imports from the four Asian countries (China, Japan, India, and South Korea) have declined compared to the previous month. Considering that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are using pipeline detours, it is estimated that the Strait of Hormuz only needs to recover to 70% to be considered normal, but the current navigation situation is far below the pre-war 70%. Our valuation model shows that WTIs valuation remains around $76/barrel, and the current geopolitical premium has returned to $7/barrel. Overall, under the influence of geopolitical disturbances, oil prices will continue to exhibit high volatility and wide-range fluctuations. (This content and opinion are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.)IEA Monthly Report: Middle East oil exports peaked at 20 million barrels per day in early July, but then fell to 12 million barrels per day later in the month.On August 12, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that with the renewed escalation of the war with Iran, even as the impact of high oil prices on demand intensifies, global oil inventories will still fall by more than double the previous forecast this quarter. In its monthly report, the IEA stated that the global oil market will face a supply gap of 1.8 million barrels per day due to "a new round of hostilities and shipping disruptions" hindering production recovery, and the supply gap could reach its largest level in five years by 2026. The IEA revised its forecast for the decline in global oil demand this year by nearly 50% to 1.6 million barrels per day, while global inventories are tightening again. This would be the largest annual average demand decline since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The IEA expects that the reduced global inventories will be replenished next year as the oil market returns to a supply surplus. The agency stated that member countries such as the United States, Japan, and Germany need to replenish their emergency oil reserves after announcing record releases of oil reserves in March.
