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On June 4th, the Federal Reserve, in its Beige Book, noted that employment was virtually unchanged in 11 districts, while one district saw slight growth. Manufacturing hiring was strongest in several districts, driven by defense-related business and growing demand for data centers. Wage growth generally remained moderate to moderate, largely in line with inflation. However, districts reported needing to adjust for wage and cost-of-living increases more frequently to cope with rising fuel and other household cost pressures. Most districts described a cautious hiring and laying-off environment, with employees increasingly reluctant to change jobs due to economic uncertainty. Hiring remained cautious, focusing primarily on key positions or filling gaps in staff. Demand in the professional services sector was mixed, partly reflecting the impact of technological and operational changes.On June 4th, the Federal Reserve, in its Beige Book, noted that economic activity grew at a moderate to moderate pace in ten of the twelve Fed districts, declined slightly in one district, and remained unchanged in one district. Consumer spending varied across districts, with spending disparities between income groups widening as cost pressures increased. High-income households were relatively robust and less sensitive to price increases; middle-income households were described as "saving as much as possible before deciding to spend"; while low-income consumers faced greater financial pressure. Overall, reports indicated increased credit card usage, decreased retail spending, and stronger demand for necessities. Car dealers reported decreased demand for new cars due to costs and fuel expenses, while more people turned to used cars and hybrid vehicles. In contrast, manufacturing activity grew at a moderate to strong pace in nine districts, with only one district reporting a slight decline from the previous period. Banking conditions remained stable in most districts; however, in several districts, delinquencies on mortgages, consumer loans, and agricultural loans increased. Overall, business expectations for the next six months show little change in anticipated growth, as higher uncertainty and signs of weakening consumer spending have impacted market sentiment.June 4th - The Federal Reserve stated that economic activity in most parts of the United States has grown at a moderate pace in recent weeks, while employment has remained largely unchanged. In its latest Beige Book, the Fed indicated that inflation levels in most Fed districts were higher than in the previous report, primarily due to the impact of the Middle East wars on energy prices. Since the outbreak of the war with Iran, rising energy prices have raised concerns about sustained inflation, leading more policymakers to believe they need to retain all policy options, including a tighter monetary policy. However, many officials stated that current interest rate conditions remain favorable.The Central Bank of Tunisia maintained its benchmark interest rate at 7%.June 4th - The Federal Reserve stated on Wednesday that U.S. economic activity has increased slightly in recent weeks, while employment has remained largely flat, and the effects of rising energy prices due to the Middle East conflict have spread across various sectors. In its latest Beige Book report, the Fed stated, "The business outlook for the next six months is little changed in terms of expected growth, as heightened uncertainty and signs of weak consumer spending dampened market sentiment." The report added, "Regions noted that energy costs related to the Middle East conflict were the primary driver of inflationary pressures, with their impact spilling over into the transportation, packaging, grocery, and fertilizer sectors."

WTI struggles at $87 as recession worries probe OPEC's forecast and supply deficit fears intensify

Daniel Rogers

Sep 14, 2022 11:42

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After reverting from the weekly high, WTI crude oil traders seek clear direction around $87.50 during Wednesday's Asian session. However, the present hesitation in the price of black gold may be attributable to the mixed concerns regarding the demand-supply matrix.

 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) indicated in a monthly report that oil consumption will climb by 3,1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and by 2,7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, which is unchanged from last month. Despite obstacles such as rising prices, the news also highlighted indications that major economies were performing better than projected.

 

The news that the United States intends to replenish its emergency oil reserves, as well as the German and European move to control Russian oil and gas prices, could also be favorable for energy prices. In addition, rumors that the Western oil deal with Iran is a long way off are bolstering fears of a supply bottleneck and should have helped energy bulls.

 

Tuesday's US inflation statistics revived concerns about the Federal Reserve's fast rate hike and exacerbated recession concerns. Also acting as downward drivers for WTI crude oil are expectations of economic slowdown due to China and Russia-related concerns.

 

In spite of this, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 8.3% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations by 0.1%. However, the monthly data increased to 0.1%, exceeding the -0.1% projected and the 0.0% shown in previous assessments. The core CPI, or CPI excluding food and energy, likewise exceeded the 6.1% consensus and 5.9% prior to printing at 6.3% for the month in question.

 

It should be mentioned that the weekly prints of the American Petroleum Institute's (API) industry inventory report also contributed to the commodity's downfall. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock climbed to 6,035 million during the week ending September 9, up from 3,645,000 the previous week.

 

In the future, the price of black gold may stay under pressure due to a stronger US dollar and economic troubles. Before today's official weekly inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, however, the supply crisis concerns could test the bears (EIA). Thursday's US Retail Sales for the month of August and Friday's preliminary reading of the September Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will also warrant close attention.