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Federal Reserve Statement: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously elected Kevin Warsh as Chairman of the FOMC.On May 23, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulcie Gabbard announced on social media on May 22 that she had submitted her resignation to President Trump that day to care for her husband, who is battling cancer. U.S. media reports indicate that Gabbard was effectively "forced out" by the White House. In her resignation letter, Gabbard stated that her husband had recently been diagnosed with "an extremely rare form of bone cancer," and her resignation would take effect on June 30. Trump announced on social media that day that Deputy Director of National Intelligence Aaron Lucas would serve as acting Director of National Intelligence. According to multiple U.S. media reports, Gabbard had been marginalized within the White Houses national security decision-making system, and in recent months, Trump had expressed considerable dissatisfaction with her and considered replacements. Gabbard has long opposed U.S. government military intervention abroad and disagreed with Trump on the Iranian nuclear issue. After the U.S. and Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran in late February, she testified before Congress that Iran had not attempted to rebuild its nuclear program and refused to confirm that Iran posed an imminent threat as the U.S. claimed.According to the Wall Street Journal, sources say the United States has suspended visa issuance to people who have visited Ebola-affected areas. This policy applies to individuals planning to travel to the United States within 21 days in South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, or Uganda.According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), in the week ending May 19, speculators reduced their net short positions in CBOT U.S. 2-year Treasury futures by 41,775 contracts to 1,560,837 contracts; increased their net short positions in CBOT U.S. 10-year Treasury futures by 66,885 contracts to 848,052 contracts; increased their net short positions in CBOT U.S. ultra-long-term Treasury futures by 15,470 contracts to 254,464 contracts; and reduced their net short positions in CBOT U.S. 5-year Treasury futures by 11,629 contracts to 1,350,516 contracts.According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), in the week ending May 19, crude oil speculators increased their net long positions in WTI crude oil by 15,017 contracts, reaching 110,348 contracts.

WTI struggles at $87 as recession worries probe OPEC's forecast and supply deficit fears intensify

Daniel Rogers

Sep 14, 2022 11:42

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After reverting from the weekly high, WTI crude oil traders seek clear direction around $87.50 during Wednesday's Asian session. However, the present hesitation in the price of black gold may be attributable to the mixed concerns regarding the demand-supply matrix.

 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) indicated in a monthly report that oil consumption will climb by 3,1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and by 2,7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, which is unchanged from last month. Despite obstacles such as rising prices, the news also highlighted indications that major economies were performing better than projected.

 

The news that the United States intends to replenish its emergency oil reserves, as well as the German and European move to control Russian oil and gas prices, could also be favorable for energy prices. In addition, rumors that the Western oil deal with Iran is a long way off are bolstering fears of a supply bottleneck and should have helped energy bulls.

 

Tuesday's US inflation statistics revived concerns about the Federal Reserve's fast rate hike and exacerbated recession concerns. Also acting as downward drivers for WTI crude oil are expectations of economic slowdown due to China and Russia-related concerns.

 

In spite of this, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 8.3% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations by 0.1%. However, the monthly data increased to 0.1%, exceeding the -0.1% projected and the 0.0% shown in previous assessments. The core CPI, or CPI excluding food and energy, likewise exceeded the 6.1% consensus and 5.9% prior to printing at 6.3% for the month in question.

 

It should be mentioned that the weekly prints of the American Petroleum Institute's (API) industry inventory report also contributed to the commodity's downfall. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock climbed to 6,035 million during the week ending September 9, up from 3,645,000 the previous week.

 

In the future, the price of black gold may stay under pressure due to a stronger US dollar and economic troubles. Before today's official weekly inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, however, the supply crisis concerns could test the bears (EIA). Thursday's US Retail Sales for the month of August and Friday's preliminary reading of the September Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will also warrant close attention.

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