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① Iran 1. Iranian lawmakers say the US attack on Iran again is actually a form of pressure. 2. Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that Iran is now stronger and better prepared than ever before, and is "ready to act" at any time against any act of aggression. ② United States 1. US media: Officials from multiple countries called to persuade Trump to postpone military action. 2. US officials stated that the US military shot down two Iranian one-way attack drones. 3. Trump: The terms leaked by Iran to "fake news" have nothing to do with the terms of the written agreement. 4. According to CNN, citing defense officials, the US shot down two Iranian attack drones last night. 5. US officials: The Strait of Hormuz will be open under the agreement. Iran will not receive any funds until it fulfills its obligations. 6. According to Reuters: An informed source revealed that the US military shot down several Iranian one-way attack drones flying towards the Strait of Hormuz. The source said that Iranian drones pose a threat to commercial shipping. 7. US Vice President Vance: There is a lot of misinformation surrounding the potential agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end Irans nuclear weapons program. Iranians have not received any cash, nor will their funds be unfrozen simply because they signed an agreement or attended a meeting. ③ Israel 1. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: As long as I am Prime Minister of Israel—Iran will not possess nuclear weapons. President Trump and I are completely aligned on this issue. 2. Israeli Defense Minister: He and Prime Minister Netanyahu have instructed the Israeli military to prepare to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Israel will not withdraw from the safe zones in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza. ④ Strait of Hormuz 1. Iranian Foreign Minister: Services related to the Strait of Hormuz will be charged. The management model of the Strait of Hormuz will not be restored to the pre-war state. 2. The US military claims to have diverted 136 ships during the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz; it has rendered 9 ships incapable of navigation to ensure compliance with the blockade. 3. According to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA): Iran will not restore the state of the Strait of Hormuz to the pre-war level. According to the memorandum of understanding with the United States, Iran made no commitments regarding the transfer of control over the Strait of Hormuz. The future management of the strait will be resolved as a regional matter through dialogue and joint decision-making between Iran and Oman. 4. According to Iranian reports, 50 ships are awaiting passage permission from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy after the suspension of passage in the Strait of Hormuz due to US hostile actions. ⑤ Ceasefire Negotiations 1. Iranian media released new details of the Iran-US memorandum of understanding, stating that final confirmation from relevant departments is still required. 2. Reports indicate that the UAE has agreed to unfreeze billions of dollars in funds for Iran, which the UAE Foreign Ministry denied. 3. According to Al Arabiya: Iran is demanding an agreement with the US in a European country to give the agreement international legitimacy. 4. According to CNN, citing sources, Israel is pressuring to prevent the unfreezing of Iranian assets in the ceasefire agreement. 5. Iranian Foreign Minister: The Iran-US memorandum of understanding may be signed within days; the draft includes provisions for a ceasefire on the Lebanese front. The US pledged not to wage war in the memorandum. The only preferred solution for disposing of highly enriched uranium stockpiles is to de-enrich and dilute the relevant materials. 6. G7 official: The US-Iran memorandum of understanding could be signed as early as Sunday in Geneva; Iran subsequently denied the claim that an agreement would be signed in Geneva on Sunday. 7. According to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA): Iran seeks war reparations within a "realistic framework." The current memorandum does not reach any agreement on the nuclear issue. Nuclear negotiations will take place within 60 days of the agreements signing. 8. According to the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA): A spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that both sides have reached consensus on most issues in the negotiations, and we are currently in the final stages of the internal decision-making process. 9. US official: The US and Iran are close to reaching an agreement, which will be signed in the coming days. The terms of the memorandum of understanding include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the US blockade of Iranian ports. Irans highly enriched uranium will also be destroyed on-site and subsequently shipped out of the country. Under the agreement, the US will acquire Irans enriched nuclear materials. ⑥ Other situations: 1. Egypt urges the US and Iran to seize the "current opportunity" to end the war. 2. Lebanese President: The state of hostilities will only end when conditions such as Israels withdrawal are met. 3. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs has conveyed to US diplomats that it will ensure that US forces operating in the region take necessary measures to prevent civilian casualties.US President Trump: Before I returned to the Oval Office, Joe Biden opened our southern border to millions of criminals, allowing this foreign army to rape, mutilate, and murder American citizens with complete impunity.Anthropic: Our understanding is that the US government believes it has learned of a way to bypass or "jailbreak" Fable 5. We doubt that any current model provider can achieve a perfect jailbreak defense.Anthropic: We received instructions from the U.S. government at 5:21 p.m. today. The letter did not specify details of its national security concerns.Anthropic: The U.S. government has issued an export control order suspending access to the artificial intelligence models FABLE 5 and Mythos 5 for all foreign nationals.

WTI struggles at $87 as recession worries probe OPEC's forecast and supply deficit fears intensify

Daniel Rogers

Sep 14, 2022 11:42

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After reverting from the weekly high, WTI crude oil traders seek clear direction around $87.50 during Wednesday's Asian session. However, the present hesitation in the price of black gold may be attributable to the mixed concerns regarding the demand-supply matrix.

 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) indicated in a monthly report that oil consumption will climb by 3,1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and by 2,7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, which is unchanged from last month. Despite obstacles such as rising prices, the news also highlighted indications that major economies were performing better than projected.

 

The news that the United States intends to replenish its emergency oil reserves, as well as the German and European move to control Russian oil and gas prices, could also be favorable for energy prices. In addition, rumors that the Western oil deal with Iran is a long way off are bolstering fears of a supply bottleneck and should have helped energy bulls.

 

Tuesday's US inflation statistics revived concerns about the Federal Reserve's fast rate hike and exacerbated recession concerns. Also acting as downward drivers for WTI crude oil are expectations of economic slowdown due to China and Russia-related concerns.

 

In spite of this, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 8.3% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations by 0.1%. However, the monthly data increased to 0.1%, exceeding the -0.1% projected and the 0.0% shown in previous assessments. The core CPI, or CPI excluding food and energy, likewise exceeded the 6.1% consensus and 5.9% prior to printing at 6.3% for the month in question.

 

It should be mentioned that the weekly prints of the American Petroleum Institute's (API) industry inventory report also contributed to the commodity's downfall. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock climbed to 6,035 million during the week ending September 9, up from 3,645,000 the previous week.

 

In the future, the price of black gold may stay under pressure due to a stronger US dollar and economic troubles. Before today's official weekly inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, however, the supply crisis concerns could test the bears (EIA). Thursday's US Retail Sales for the month of August and Friday's preliminary reading of the September Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will also warrant close attention.

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