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Real-time News
Conflict Status 1. Houthi rebels again claim to have attacked Saudi oil tankers. 2. According to Irans Tasnim News Agency: Yemen is preparing for a full-scale confrontation with Saudi Arabia. US-Iran Negotiations 1. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: The Foreign Minister or Speaker of Parliament has no plans to visit Pakistan or Qatar at the moment. 2. Trump: A US-Iran agreement will be decided within 48 hours; US-Iran negotiations are "progressing well," but Iran is unwilling to acknowledge it. 3. According to CNN: A Gulf state official believes there is a 50% chance that the US and Iran will reach an agreement by Friday. Strait of Hormuz 1. Yemeni Armed Forces: A total of 29 Saudi oil tankers were blocked and forced to retreat or return in the Red Sea and Arabian Sea. 2. UK Maritime Trade Operations Office: Received a report on an incident that occurred 9 nautical miles from the Mocha region of Yemen on August 4. On August 4, a ship near Yemen was attacked, resulting in a fire on board. 3. US—① According to Axios, the US plans to announce an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday. ② Trump: The Strait of Hormuz will open soon, or Iran will be attacked. ③ US Central Command: As of August 5, US forces had altered the routes of 48 merchant ships, rendered two ships inoperable, and boarded and inspected two other vessels. 4. Iran—① Iranian Foreign Ministry: Iran is close to reaching an agreement with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz, which would close two existing shipping lanes. A new shipping lane for entering the Strait of Hormuz and part of the journey out of the Strait will pass through Iranian territorial waters. However, the new lane is also temporary and is expected to be usable for 2 to 4 months. The Iranian Foreign Minister or Speaker of Parliament has no plans to visit Pakistan or Qatar at present. ② Foreign media: Iran is seeking to charge ships transiting the Strait a fee of 5% to 7% of the cargo value. Other: 1. US media: The Israel-Lebanon Rome talks ended prematurely due to changes in the situation. 2. Iran—① Iranian President: Communication with the Supreme Leader of Iran is currently "very difficult." ② Iran and Pakistan signed a new partnership agreement, aiming for a $10 billion trade target. 3. Israel—① Israel Defense Forces: An attack will be launched against Hezbollah in a southern Lebanese town. This attack is a response to Hezbollahs violation of the ceasefire agreement. ② The Israeli Ministry of Defense: Just conducted a scheduled test of the long-range Arrow missile defense system. ③ Israeli sources say the response to Hezbollahs serious violation of the agreement is not yet over.Conflict Updates: 1. A Russian drone factory director was attacked by a car bomb. 2. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy: Ukraines air defense system supply has decreased by two-thirds compared to last year. 3. Reports indicate that 16 people have been killed and 36 injured in the Kyiv region following the Russian attack. 4. Russian Ministry of Defense: Three ships were damaged near Odessa; Russia disrupted logistics hubs in and around Kyiv. 5. According to TASS: A fire broke out at the Russian State Space Corporation research facility in Korolyov, near Moscow. Other Updates: 1. French President Macron: The EU and its partners will continue to increase pressure on Russia, including through sanctions. 2. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: Russia must pay the price for the damage it has caused. We will allocate an additional €1.4 billion from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. 3. Russian President Putin reshuffled the Russian military leadership, appointing Denis Lyamin to lead the newly formed unmanned systems force and appointing new frontline combat and military logistics commanders. 4. Ukrainian Prime Minister: The EU will allocate €1.4 billion to Ukraine from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets. These funds will be used to strengthen Ukraines defense capabilities and enhance the countrys resilience.Sequoia Capital has completed a new round of financing of $10 billion.Faraday Future (FFIE.O): Plans to reduce its debt of $230 million as of the end of the first quarter to below $100 million within four quarters.On August 6th, Federal Reserve Governor Tim Cook reiterated her stance: she is prepared to raise interest rates if inflation does not slow, and warned that policymakers may not have room to wait for inflation to return to the 2% target. While Cook supported the Feds decision to keep interest rates unchanged at the July policy meeting, she cautioned that the longer inflation remains above the Feds target, the more difficult it will be to curb it. Speaking at an event in Alaska, Cook said, "If I dont see signs of a sustained decline in inflation anytime soon, Im prepared to act. With inflation above target for five consecutive years, the risk of inflation becoming entrenched in price and wage-setting behavior is rising, which will lead to more persistent inflation that we will find harder to manage." However, Cook indicated that the waning impact of tariffs, the potential for lower oil prices, and easing pressures related to the AI boom might provide a buffer for inflation, thus necessitating policy tightening. She stated that her primary task remains getting inflation back to the Feds target level.

WTI struggles at $87 as recession worries probe OPEC's forecast and supply deficit fears intensify

Daniel Rogers

Sep 14, 2022 11:42

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After reverting from the weekly high, WTI crude oil traders seek clear direction around $87.50 during Wednesday's Asian session. However, the present hesitation in the price of black gold may be attributable to the mixed concerns regarding the demand-supply matrix.

 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) indicated in a monthly report that oil consumption will climb by 3,1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and by 2,7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, which is unchanged from last month. Despite obstacles such as rising prices, the news also highlighted indications that major economies were performing better than projected.

 

The news that the United States intends to replenish its emergency oil reserves, as well as the German and European move to control Russian oil and gas prices, could also be favorable for energy prices. In addition, rumors that the Western oil deal with Iran is a long way off are bolstering fears of a supply bottleneck and should have helped energy bulls.

 

Tuesday's US inflation statistics revived concerns about the Federal Reserve's fast rate hike and exacerbated recession concerns. Also acting as downward drivers for WTI crude oil are expectations of economic slowdown due to China and Russia-related concerns.

 

In spite of this, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 8.3% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations by 0.1%. However, the monthly data increased to 0.1%, exceeding the -0.1% projected and the 0.0% shown in previous assessments. The core CPI, or CPI excluding food and energy, likewise exceeded the 6.1% consensus and 5.9% prior to printing at 6.3% for the month in question.

 

It should be mentioned that the weekly prints of the American Petroleum Institute's (API) industry inventory report also contributed to the commodity's downfall. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock climbed to 6,035 million during the week ending September 9, up from 3,645,000 the previous week.

 

In the future, the price of black gold may stay under pressure due to a stronger US dollar and economic troubles. Before today's official weekly inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, however, the supply crisis concerns could test the bears (EIA). Thursday's US Retail Sales for the month of August and Friday's preliminary reading of the September Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will also warrant close attention.

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