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On September 18, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, in response to questions about the central banks statutory requirement to achieve "moderate long-term interest rates" at a press conference following the interest rate decision on Wednesday, explained why the three missions given to the Federal Reserve by Congress can be reduced to two major tasks in practice. Central bank officials have long positioned their mission as a dual task, with monetary policy focusing on keeping inflation low and stable and ensuring a continued strong job market, with little emphasis on the third task. Powell told reporters that the third task is real, but in the eyes of central bankers, it is a derivative of the two more well-known goals stipulated by law. He said: "We believe that moderate long-term interest rates are the result of achieving low and stable inflation and maximum employment." For some time, Federal Reserve officials did not believe that the third task required "independent action."1. The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.57%, the S&P 500 down 0.1%, and the Nasdaq down 0.33%. American Express and Caterpillar rose over 2%, leading the Dow higher. The Wind US Tech 7 Index fell 0.66%, with Nvidia down over 2% and Amazon down over 1%. Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with Baidu Group up over 11% and ACM Semiconductor up over 9%. The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut as expected. The markets positive reaction to the policy shift provided support for U.S. stocks, but the divergent performance of technology stocks curbed overall gains. 2. U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year Treasury yield up 4.99 basis points to 3.545%, the 3-year Treasury yield up 6.40 basis points to 3.533%, the 5-year Treasury yield up 6.77 basis points to 3.652%, the 10-year Treasury yield up 6.12 basis points to 4.089%, and the 30-year Treasury yield up 3.86 basis points to 4.690%. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized that inflation remains high and stated that future rate cuts will be data-dependent, prompting the market to reassess tightening risks. 3. International precious metals futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 0.82% to $3,694.60 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 2.15% to $41.99 per ounce. 4. International oil prices fell slightly, with the main US crude oil contract closing down 0.85% at $63.97 per barrel; the main Brent crude oil contract fell 0.82% to $67.91 per barrel. 5. Most base metals prices in London fell, with LME zinc down 1.64% to $2,943 per ton, LME copper down 1.51% to $9,974 per ton, LME tin down 1.41% to $34,390 per ton, LME aluminum down 1.01% to $2,689.50 per ton, LME lead down 0.25% to $2,005 per ton, and LME nickel up 0.11% to $15,445 per ton. Expectations of loose monetary policy pushed the US dollar index to a yearly low, providing support for dollar-denominated base metals from a cost perspective.On September 18, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points overnight.Market news: The U.S. House of Representatives cleared procedural obstacles to voting on a temporary appropriations bill.On September 18th, Venezuelan Defense Minister Lopez Obrador announced the three-day "Sovereign Caribbean 200" military exercises on Orchila Island. The exercises, personally ordered by President Maduro, are intended to respond to US threats. The exercises will mobilize over 2,500 military personnel. The exercises will involve coordinated operations by the navy, army, and air force, involving 12 naval vessels of various classes, 22 military aircraft, and over 20 auxiliary vessels.

WTI struggles at $87 as recession worries probe OPEC's forecast and supply deficit fears intensify

Daniel Rogers

Sep 14, 2022 11:42

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After reverting from the weekly high, WTI crude oil traders seek clear direction around $87.50 during Wednesday's Asian session. However, the present hesitation in the price of black gold may be attributable to the mixed concerns regarding the demand-supply matrix.

 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) indicated in a monthly report that oil consumption will climb by 3,1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and by 2,7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, which is unchanged from last month. Despite obstacles such as rising prices, the news also highlighted indications that major economies were performing better than projected.

 

The news that the United States intends to replenish its emergency oil reserves, as well as the German and European move to control Russian oil and gas prices, could also be favorable for energy prices. In addition, rumors that the Western oil deal with Iran is a long way off are bolstering fears of a supply bottleneck and should have helped energy bulls.

 

Tuesday's US inflation statistics revived concerns about the Federal Reserve's fast rate hike and exacerbated recession concerns. Also acting as downward drivers for WTI crude oil are expectations of economic slowdown due to China and Russia-related concerns.

 

In spite of this, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 8.3% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations by 0.1%. However, the monthly data increased to 0.1%, exceeding the -0.1% projected and the 0.0% shown in previous assessments. The core CPI, or CPI excluding food and energy, likewise exceeded the 6.1% consensus and 5.9% prior to printing at 6.3% for the month in question.

 

It should be mentioned that the weekly prints of the American Petroleum Institute's (API) industry inventory report also contributed to the commodity's downfall. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock climbed to 6,035 million during the week ending September 9, up from 3,645,000 the previous week.

 

In the future, the price of black gold may stay under pressure due to a stronger US dollar and economic troubles. Before today's official weekly inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, however, the supply crisis concerns could test the bears (EIA). Thursday's US Retail Sales for the month of August and Friday's preliminary reading of the September Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will also warrant close attention.