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U.S. sources say that U.S. Marines opened fire on protesters at the U.S. consulate in Karachi, Pakistan, last Sunday.Futures analyst Guangda Futures reports: On March 2nd, COMEX gold opened higher and trended upwards, before a sharp sell-off at the close, ending slightly higher at $5335.9 per ounce, a gain of 1.68%. Domestic SHFE gold opened higher but then fell in the night session, closing at 1184.90 yuan per gram, a gain of 1.14%. 1. Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday showed that the US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell slightly to 52.4 in February, expanding for the second consecutive month, but the input price index surged to 70.5, a near four-year high. Its worth noting that this data reflects market conditions prior to the US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran this weekend. Afterwards, tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz nearly ceased, and international oil prices recorded their largest single-day increase since the Russia-Ukraine war in early 2022 on Monday, meaning that price pressure may continue to rise. Given that tariffs and geopolitical conflicts are creating a persistent undercurrent of inflation, manufacturers may be forced to pass on costs to consumers, squeezing the Federal Reserves room for interest rate cuts. Last night, the US dollar index rose by more than 1%, and precious metals rose and then fell back. 2. Geopolitically, the US-Iran conflict escalated rapidly over the weekend. The joint US-Israel assassination attempt plunged Iran into regime chaos, unexpectedly reigniting geopolitical risks and initially reflecting some safe-haven demand. However, as the conflict progressed, the market gradually withdrew from this safe-haven panic, shifting towards concerns about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a rebound in oil prices due to disruptions in oil production facilities, and renewed expectations of global inflation. This had a mixed impact on gold. Inflation expectations are generally favorable for gold prices, but the expectation of a Fed rate cut and further easing has been further delayed. Investors should continue to closely monitor the US-Iran situation. Whether the conflict slows down or escalates further will determine the subsequent trend of gold prices. Strategically, timing is more important than directional choice; avoid chasing highs excessively. (This content and opinion are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.)Japans energy minister stated that the suspension of Qatars liquefied natural gas (LNG) operations will not immediately affect the countrys energy supply.The main Shanghai silver futures contract plunged in the short term, falling more than 4.00% intraday, and is currently trading at 22,888.00 yuan/kg.March 3 - Oil prices rose in early Asian trading due to the ongoing Middle East conflict and the persistent high risk of supply disruptions. Kerstin Hottner, head of commodities at Vontobel, stated, "The ongoing military conflict between the US/Israel and Iran has caused turmoil in the global energy market. The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint for global energy trade, has effectively ceased operation due to the conflict. As the situation develops, the duration and intensity of the conflict will be key factors shaping the energy landscape in the short term."

WTI struggles at $87 as recession worries probe OPEC's forecast and supply deficit fears intensify

Daniel Rogers

Sep 14, 2022 11:42

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After reverting from the weekly high, WTI crude oil traders seek clear direction around $87.50 during Wednesday's Asian session. However, the present hesitation in the price of black gold may be attributable to the mixed concerns regarding the demand-supply matrix.

 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) indicated in a monthly report that oil consumption will climb by 3,1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and by 2,7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, which is unchanged from last month. Despite obstacles such as rising prices, the news also highlighted indications that major economies were performing better than projected.

 

The news that the United States intends to replenish its emergency oil reserves, as well as the German and European move to control Russian oil and gas prices, could also be favorable for energy prices. In addition, rumors that the Western oil deal with Iran is a long way off are bolstering fears of a supply bottleneck and should have helped energy bulls.

 

Tuesday's US inflation statistics revived concerns about the Federal Reserve's fast rate hike and exacerbated recession concerns. Also acting as downward drivers for WTI crude oil are expectations of economic slowdown due to China and Russia-related concerns.

 

In spite of this, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 8.3% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations by 0.1%. However, the monthly data increased to 0.1%, exceeding the -0.1% projected and the 0.0% shown in previous assessments. The core CPI, or CPI excluding food and energy, likewise exceeded the 6.1% consensus and 5.9% prior to printing at 6.3% for the month in question.

 

It should be mentioned that the weekly prints of the American Petroleum Institute's (API) industry inventory report also contributed to the commodity's downfall. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock climbed to 6,035 million during the week ending September 9, up from 3,645,000 the previous week.

 

In the future, the price of black gold may stay under pressure due to a stronger US dollar and economic troubles. Before today's official weekly inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, however, the supply crisis concerns could test the bears (EIA). Thursday's US Retail Sales for the month of August and Friday's preliminary reading of the September Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will also warrant close attention.

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