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On August 22nd, it was reported that long-term government bond yields in major global economies have continued to rise recently, increasing selling pressure in the bond market. However, Chinas bond market and exchange rate have remained relatively stable, with Panda bond issuance reaching a record high for the same period. Data shows that as of August 21st, the cumulative issuance of Panda bonds in 2026 reached 209.975 billion yuan, an increase of over 73% year-on-year. Against the backdrop of sharp fluctuations in the global bond market, the increased investment by international institutions in domestic RMB financing has attracted attention. Industry insiders explained, "We and overseas markets are in completely different economic and monetary cycles. Foreign capital accounts for only about 5%-8% of my countrys bond market, while domestic capital holds absolute pricing power. Coupled with our monetary policy adhering to a self-reliant approach, overseas shocks cannot reverse the overall trend of the domestic bond market." Looking ahead, industry insiders believe that overseas bond yields are likely to remain highly volatile, highlighting the investment value of RMB bonds, and potentially leading to continued foreign investment in the medium to long term. However, it should be noted that rising US Treasury yields have raised the return threshold for global investment funds, which may disrupt the willingness of overseas institutions to increase their holdings of RMB bonds. In addition, the rapid rise in bond yields in developed countries overseas may also constrain the valuation of domestic risky assets.On August 22, the U.S. Department of Defense dismissed Eric Slavin, editor-in-chief of the military newspaper Stars and Stripes, publisher Max Laidler, and senior Middle East correspondent Lara Cortt on August 21 for "insubordination." This followed the newspapers recent report on poor working conditions and sailors mental breakdowns aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, sparking renewed criticism within the U.S. regarding the Trump administrations inability to end the conflict with Iran. Slavin stated in an interview on August 21 that he was dismissed for "insubordination." He had previously discussed his disagreements with the Department of Defense in an interview. Cortt wrote on the social media platform X on the same day: "Today, I was informed that the Department of Defense has dismissed me for insubordination."According to Irans Tasnim News Agency, Iranian officials have called on Qatar to transfer the detained Iranian pilot to a land-based hospital. Iranian officials stated that the detained pilot is currently on the water and is in "very poor" condition.According to Al Jazeera: Alarms sounded in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, as the government warned of a possible missile attack.On August 22, the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters and the Ministry of Emergency Management organized a joint consultation meeting with the China Meteorological Administration, the Ministry of Water Resources, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Ministry of Transport, and key provinces including Hainan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, and Fujian. The meeting assessed the development of Typhoon Saudel (No. 18) and Typhoon Zitan (No. 19), as well as the development of heavy rainfall and the flood control situation in the Heilongjiang River main stream and Taihu Lake basin. The meeting also deployed flood and typhoon prevention work. The State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters and the Ministry of Emergency Management maintained a Level IV emergency response for flood and typhoon prevention in Hainan, Guangxi, and Guangdong, and a Level IV emergency response for flood control in Jiangsu.

WTI struggles at $87 as recession worries probe OPEC's forecast and supply deficit fears intensify

Daniel Rogers

Sep 14, 2022 11:42

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After reverting from the weekly high, WTI crude oil traders seek clear direction around $87.50 during Wednesday's Asian session. However, the present hesitation in the price of black gold may be attributable to the mixed concerns regarding the demand-supply matrix.

 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) indicated in a monthly report that oil consumption will climb by 3,1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and by 2,7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, which is unchanged from last month. Despite obstacles such as rising prices, the news also highlighted indications that major economies were performing better than projected.

 

The news that the United States intends to replenish its emergency oil reserves, as well as the German and European move to control Russian oil and gas prices, could also be favorable for energy prices. In addition, rumors that the Western oil deal with Iran is a long way off are bolstering fears of a supply bottleneck and should have helped energy bulls.

 

Tuesday's US inflation statistics revived concerns about the Federal Reserve's fast rate hike and exacerbated recession concerns. Also acting as downward drivers for WTI crude oil are expectations of economic slowdown due to China and Russia-related concerns.

 

In spite of this, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 8.3% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations by 0.1%. However, the monthly data increased to 0.1%, exceeding the -0.1% projected and the 0.0% shown in previous assessments. The core CPI, or CPI excluding food and energy, likewise exceeded the 6.1% consensus and 5.9% prior to printing at 6.3% for the month in question.

 

It should be mentioned that the weekly prints of the American Petroleum Institute's (API) industry inventory report also contributed to the commodity's downfall. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock climbed to 6,035 million during the week ending September 9, up from 3,645,000 the previous week.

 

In the future, the price of black gold may stay under pressure due to a stronger US dollar and economic troubles. Before today's official weekly inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, however, the supply crisis concerns could test the bears (EIA). Thursday's US Retail Sales for the month of August and Friday's preliminary reading of the September Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will also warrant close attention.

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