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Japanese chip-related stocks surged, with Kioxia rising 6.9%, SoftBank up 6.2%, and Advantest up 6.5%.On August 14th, Mitsuhiro Furusawa, a former senior Japanese foreign exchange diplomat and former deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), stated that the yen is clearly too weak at current exchange rate levels and is harming the Japanese economy by pushing up import costs. He indicated that if the yen returns to levels before last months coordinated intervention, Japan and the United States may intervene in the foreign exchange market again at any time, and the action will not be tied to a specific level such as 160 or 162 yen. Furusawa stated that intervention can only buy time; a more fundamental solution is for the Bank of Japan to accelerate its pace of interest rate hikes. He predicts that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in September, followed by another hike in December or January next year. He estimates that the Bank of Japan ultimately hopes to raise interest rates to approximately 1.5% to 1.75%. This assessment is based on his estimate of the neutral interest rate, which is 1.1% to 2.5%; if the economy maintains its growth momentum, further interest rate hikes are possible in the fiscal year beginning in April 2027.On August 14th, U.S. Central Command posted on social media that several media outlets had published "false reports" about the USS Lincolns deployment to the Middle East in the past 48 hours. The U.S. military confirmed that one report claimed "seven sailors died in a fight on board," while others suggested a "surge in suicidal thoughts among sailors"—these reports were "pure fabrications." U.S. Central Command stated that the USS Lincoln has consistently maintained "one of the highest personnel renewal rates" among all U.S. aircraft carriers. After more than 260 consecutive days at sea, conducting 10,000 sorties, and dropping 1.5 million pounds of ordnance, the Navy and Marine Corps personnel of the USS Lincoln Carrier Strike Group remain "determined and in high spirits." "No service members have died," and the sailor who fell overboard on August 3rd was quickly and safely rescued.On August 14, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that, at the invitation of President Xi Jinping, President Daniel Roy-Hilchrist Noboa Asin of the Republic of Ecuador will pay a state visit to China from August 16 to 23.Former senior Japanese foreign exchange diplomat Mitsuhiro Furusawa: The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in September, followed by another rate hike in December or January.

WTI struggles at $87 as recession worries probe OPEC's forecast and supply deficit fears intensify

Daniel Rogers

Sep 14, 2022 11:42

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After reverting from the weekly high, WTI crude oil traders seek clear direction around $87.50 during Wednesday's Asian session. However, the present hesitation in the price of black gold may be attributable to the mixed concerns regarding the demand-supply matrix.

 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) indicated in a monthly report that oil consumption will climb by 3,1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and by 2,7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, which is unchanged from last month. Despite obstacles such as rising prices, the news also highlighted indications that major economies were performing better than projected.

 

The news that the United States intends to replenish its emergency oil reserves, as well as the German and European move to control Russian oil and gas prices, could also be favorable for energy prices. In addition, rumors that the Western oil deal with Iran is a long way off are bolstering fears of a supply bottleneck and should have helped energy bulls.

 

Tuesday's US inflation statistics revived concerns about the Federal Reserve's fast rate hike and exacerbated recession concerns. Also acting as downward drivers for WTI crude oil are expectations of economic slowdown due to China and Russia-related concerns.

 

In spite of this, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 8.3% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations by 0.1%. However, the monthly data increased to 0.1%, exceeding the -0.1% projected and the 0.0% shown in previous assessments. The core CPI, or CPI excluding food and energy, likewise exceeded the 6.1% consensus and 5.9% prior to printing at 6.3% for the month in question.

 

It should be mentioned that the weekly prints of the American Petroleum Institute's (API) industry inventory report also contributed to the commodity's downfall. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock climbed to 6,035 million during the week ending September 9, up from 3,645,000 the previous week.

 

In the future, the price of black gold may stay under pressure due to a stronger US dollar and economic troubles. Before today's official weekly inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, however, the supply crisis concerns could test the bears (EIA). Thursday's US Retail Sales for the month of August and Friday's preliminary reading of the September Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will also warrant close attention.

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