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On September 20th, the German Institute for Economic Research released its autumn economic forecast, significantly raising its 2026 economic growth forecast for Germany from 0.4% to 1.2%. The institute stated that the upward revision was mainly due to strong economic growth in the first half of this year. However, the institute predicts that "growth momentum will slow again in the second half of 2026." This is attributed to the expiration of special export incentives, high energy prices suppressing private consumption, and the continued crisis in the construction industry, primarily driven by government investment. The institute projects German economic growth to be slightly below 1% in 2027. The institute also warned that the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Middle East situation, international trade conflicts, and declining water levels in major European rivers could all negatively impact the German economy. Furthermore, influenced by rising energy prices, the institute predicts that Germanys inflation rate in 2026 will be slightly above 2.5%, while consumption is expected to grow by only 0.3%.September 20 - According to the website of the China Maritime Safety Administration, the Tangshan Maritime Safety Administration issued a navigation warning that live-fire shooting activities will be conducted in parts of the Bohai Sea from 00:00 on September 21 to 24:00 on September 24, and entry is prohibited.On September 20, local time, the Central Command of Irans Hatem Anbia issued a statement saying that intelligence indicated the United States, in an attempt to cover up its failures and gain benefits from the war, decided, with the tacit approval of certain Middle Eastern countries, to take hostile action against Iran again after a joint meeting in a European country. The statement warned that if the United States makes any mistakes against Iran, all its bases and interests in the region will suffer sustained, effective, and devastating blows without reservation. The statement also indicated that Iran warned regional countries that if they continue to pursue a "double-dealing policy" towards Iran and cooperate with its enemies, they will be considered accomplices; at that point, they will no longer be able to expect restraint or tolerance from the Iranian armed forces.On September 20th, local time, explosions were heard in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. Kyiv Mayor Viktor Klitschko reported that Russian military drones were attacking the city, and Kyivs air defense system was operational. There has been no response from Russia at this time.According to Iranian state media, the Central Command of the Iranian Armed Forces stated that the United States is planning new actions against Iran with the permission of its regional allies. The plan was coordinated and formulated at a European summit.

WTI struggles at $87 as recession worries probe OPEC's forecast and supply deficit fears intensify

Daniel Rogers

Sep 14, 2022 11:42

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After reverting from the weekly high, WTI crude oil traders seek clear direction around $87.50 during Wednesday's Asian session. However, the present hesitation in the price of black gold may be attributable to the mixed concerns regarding the demand-supply matrix.

 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) indicated in a monthly report that oil consumption will climb by 3,1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and by 2,7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, which is unchanged from last month. Despite obstacles such as rising prices, the news also highlighted indications that major economies were performing better than projected.

 

The news that the United States intends to replenish its emergency oil reserves, as well as the German and European move to control Russian oil and gas prices, could also be favorable for energy prices. In addition, rumors that the Western oil deal with Iran is a long way off are bolstering fears of a supply bottleneck and should have helped energy bulls.

 

Tuesday's US inflation statistics revived concerns about the Federal Reserve's fast rate hike and exacerbated recession concerns. Also acting as downward drivers for WTI crude oil are expectations of economic slowdown due to China and Russia-related concerns.

 

In spite of this, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 8.3% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations by 0.1%. However, the monthly data increased to 0.1%, exceeding the -0.1% projected and the 0.0% shown in previous assessments. The core CPI, or CPI excluding food and energy, likewise exceeded the 6.1% consensus and 5.9% prior to printing at 6.3% for the month in question.

 

It should be mentioned that the weekly prints of the American Petroleum Institute's (API) industry inventory report also contributed to the commodity's downfall. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock climbed to 6,035 million during the week ending September 9, up from 3,645,000 the previous week.

 

In the future, the price of black gold may stay under pressure due to a stronger US dollar and economic troubles. Before today's official weekly inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, however, the supply crisis concerns could test the bears (EIA). Thursday's US Retail Sales for the month of August and Friday's preliminary reading of the September Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will also warrant close attention.

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