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On September 17th, Goldman Sachs stated that gasoline prices are poised for further increases as tight supply conditions spread in the global fuel market. The bank has adjusted its trading strategy, shifting its focus from diesel to this widely used vehicle fuel. Analysts, including Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and Daan Struyven, noted in a report: "The key reason behind this new recommendation is that refiners are shifting production from gasoline to diesel, leading to a rapid tightening of the gasoline market supply." In a report dated September 16th, analysts stated that while diesel prices may still rise further, gasoline currently offers "greater upside potential" due to factors such as more resilient demand and relative inventory changes. Therefore, the bank closed out previous positions on different diesel contract spreads (i.e., time spreads) and recommended establishing long positions in European gasoline targeting mid-2027.On September 17th, according to the Financial Times, Emulate, a UK-based AI startup founded just one month ago by former DeepMind researchers, is launching a new funding round worth hundreds of millions of dollars at a post-money valuation of nearly $4 billion. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the company is in advanced talks with potential investors, planning to raise up to $700 million, which would bring its valuation to $3.7 billion upon completion. The sources also stated that this massive funding round will be jointly led by prominent UK venture capital firm Index Ventures and Silicon Valley-based Lightspeed Venture Partners.According to the Financial Times, Emulate, a British startup founded by former DeepMind researchers, is raising hundreds of millions of dollars in a new funding round just one month after its founding, with a valuation of nearly $4 billion.On September 17th, Robert Sorkin, chief U.S. economist at PGIM, stated that the latest Federal Reserve meeting signaled that the Fed could implement three rate hikes, or even more if necessary, with just a slight push. This rate hike was hawkish, signaling another rate hike this year. Of the 18 Fed officials who submitted forecasts, eight expect three rate hikes in this cycle by the end of 2027. In a report, Sorkin noted that Fed Chairman Warshs mention of the Fed "withdrawing some easing measures" suggested that he and other participants viewed Wednesdays action as merely a small step towards tightening financial conditions, implying further action is possible. Sorkin added that the risk of further Fed rate hikes remains high if inflation continues to be high.On September 17th, Futures News reported that Zhang Guoqing, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, stated in his concluding remarks that it is essential to thoroughly study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinpings important instructions and the requirements of Premier Li Qiangs speech, and to earnestly enhance the sense of urgency, responsibility, and mission in developing advanced manufacturing. He emphasized the need to focus on key areas and crucial aspects, deeply implement the high-quality development action plan for key industrial chains, vigorously develop next-generation intelligent manufacturing, accelerate the upgrading and integrated development of the industrial system, and solidly promote the implementation of various tasks. He also stressed the importance of better leveraging the role of market mechanisms, accelerating the construction of a high-quality standard system, continuously rectifying disorderly and irrational competition, actively helping enterprises solve practical difficulties, and striving to create a favorable ecosystem for the development of advanced manufacturing.

WTI struggles at $87 as recession worries probe OPEC's forecast and supply deficit fears intensify

Daniel Rogers

Sep 14, 2022 11:42

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After reverting from the weekly high, WTI crude oil traders seek clear direction around $87.50 during Wednesday's Asian session. However, the present hesitation in the price of black gold may be attributable to the mixed concerns regarding the demand-supply matrix.

 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) indicated in a monthly report that oil consumption will climb by 3,1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2022 and by 2,7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, which is unchanged from last month. Despite obstacles such as rising prices, the news also highlighted indications that major economies were performing better than projected.

 

The news that the United States intends to replenish its emergency oil reserves, as well as the German and European move to control Russian oil and gas prices, could also be favorable for energy prices. In addition, rumors that the Western oil deal with Iran is a long way off are bolstering fears of a supply bottleneck and should have helped energy bulls.

 

Tuesday's US inflation statistics revived concerns about the Federal Reserve's fast rate hike and exacerbated recession concerns. Also acting as downward drivers for WTI crude oil are expectations of economic slowdown due to China and Russia-related concerns.

 

In spite of this, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 8.3% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations by 0.1%. However, the monthly data increased to 0.1%, exceeding the -0.1% projected and the 0.0% shown in previous assessments. The core CPI, or CPI excluding food and energy, likewise exceeded the 6.1% consensus and 5.9% prior to printing at 6.3% for the month in question.

 

It should be mentioned that the weekly prints of the American Petroleum Institute's (API) industry inventory report also contributed to the commodity's downfall. The API Weekly Crude Oil Stock climbed to 6,035 million during the week ending September 9, up from 3,645,000 the previous week.

 

In the future, the price of black gold may stay under pressure due to a stronger US dollar and economic troubles. Before today's official weekly inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, however, the supply crisis concerns could test the bears (EIA). Thursday's US Retail Sales for the month of August and Friday's preliminary reading of the September Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will also warrant close attention.