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WTI fluctuates near $87.00 due to contradictory demand-supply data

Alina Haynes

Sep 13, 2022 10:54

 截屏2022-08-04 下午5.10.59_1024x576.png


After reclaiming the weekly high, the price of WTI crude oil remained stagnant at approximately $87.80, amidst mixed concerns regarding the supply and demand of black gold. In addition to the market's hesitance ahead of critical US inflation data and the weekly industry report on oil inventories, the commodity prices could be affected by the market's disposition.


In October, oil production in the Permian Region in Texas and New Mexico, the largest U.S. shale oil basin, is expected to increase by 66,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a record 5.413 million bpd, according to a study released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Monday. During the past week, the United States stopped releasing more oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), signaling a significant improvement in the supply situation. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm is quoted by Reuters as saying, "The Biden administration is assessing the need for more SPR releases after the present program concludes in October."


Reuters, citing statistics from the US Department of Energy (DOE), reports that emergency oil inventories in the United States plummeted to their lowest level since October 1984, falling 8.4 million barrels to 434.1 million barrels in the week ending September 9. In the same vein are the rumors concerning the European Union's oil embargo and the oil price cap imposed by Western leaders on Moscow's energy exports.


In addition to the probable increase in China's stimulus, uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran oil deal and the likely retribution of Russia after retreating from portions of Ukraine further support the oil's upward movement.


Notable is the correlation between the risk-on sentiment and the dollar's depreciation, which helps oil purchasers. In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell for a second straight day to levels not seen in two weeks, near 108.30 at the latest.


After the most recent softening in price pressure, the US CPI for August becomes key. The projections indicate that the headline number will decrease to -0.1% MoM from 0.0% previously, while the CPI excluding food and energy will likely remain steady at 0.3% MoM. Also significant will be the previous 3.645M Weekly Crude Oil Stock data from the American Petroleum Institute (API).