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The Bank of Japan reported that core CPI, excluding special factors, rose 2.7% year-on-year in June, the same as in May. Core-core CPI, also excluding special factors, rose 2.0% year-on-year in June, compared to 2.1% in May.On July 28, the Ministry of Commerce released Chinas position on the so-called "overcapacity" issue. The document states that openness brings progress, while isolation inevitably leads to backwardness. All parties should dismantle barriers, expand openness, continuously tap market potential, and provide greater space for industrial cooperation. Reducing trade barriers is crucial. The larger the trade volume, the more difficult it is to avoid disagreements and frictions. Focusing solely on "building walls" will only exacerbate conflicts and will not help solve the problem. All parties should adhere to open cooperation, facilitate the cross-border flow of domestic and foreign factors, promote full market competition, stimulate enterprise vitality, and continuously enrich new supply and create new demand. Isolation will only result in a lack of market vitality and greater obstruction to innovative development. Reducing barriers to investment cooperation is also essential. Investment cooperation is an important way to expand the pie, strengthen ties, and enhance mutual benefit, meeting local needs while also driving the development of host countries. All parties should relax restrictions on investment access, simplify procedures, eliminate barriers, provide a fair, transparent, and predictable environment for foreign investors, and better protect their legitimate rights and interests.On July 28, the Ministry of Commerce released its "Chinas Position on the So-Called Overcapacity Issue," stating that the claim that "insufficient domestic demand in China leads to overcapacity" is untrue. China is not only a manufacturing powerhouse but also a major consumer market. Domestic demand has consistently been the main engine of Chinas economy, contributing an average of 93% to Chinas economic growth from 2013 to 2024. According to World Bank purchasing power parity calculations, Chinas total retail sales of consumer goods will be 1.7 times that of the United States by 2025, making it the worlds largest consumer market. Currently, China ranks first globally in physical consumption, with per capita annual consumption of some industrial products approaching that of developed countries. In recent years, the growth rate of Chinas total retail sales of consumer goods has slowed, consistent with Chinas economic shift from high-speed growth to high-quality development, and reflecting the upgrading trend of Chinas consumption structure. Attributing the slowdown in Chinas retail sales growth to insufficient domestic demand is neither objective nor comprehensive. The argument that "insufficient domestic demand in China leads to overcapacity" is a fallacy of applying a micro-level market phenomenon to the macro-level structural level.On July 28, the Ministry of Commerce released its "Chinas Position on the So-Called Overcapacity Issue." The document states that China never deliberately pursues a trade surplus. Chinas export growth stems from both economies of scale and increased innovation capabilities, as well as the demands of green transformation and industrialization in various countries. For example, Chinas export growth to Europe is mainly concentrated in photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and chemical products, reflecting the demand for energy products driven by green transformation and the increased production costs in European chemical and other industries due to the energy crisis. China also never deliberately pursues a larger share of labor-intensive product exports; the export share of these products is projected to decrease from 20.7% in 2012 to 15.1% in 2025. Regarding the distribution of trade benefits, "the surplus is in China, but the benefits are shared by all parties." In 2025, foreign-invested enterprises will account for 27% of Chinas exports and 16% of the surplus, with both surplus and profit growth rates exceeding those of domestic enterprises. Looking at the overall balance of payments, although China has a large surplus in goods trade, it has deficits in services trade and investment income. Overall, the current account surplus accounts for approximately 3.7% of GDP, which is within the internationally recognized reasonable range.On July 28, the Ministry of Commerce released "Chinas Position on the So-Called Overcapacity Issue," clarifying relevant facts and outlining Chinas policy stance on the issue. The document states that China has always maintained that the issue of overcapacity should be viewed comprehensively, objectively, and fairly, taking a historical and dialectical perspective, upholding openness, cooperation, and mutual benefit, and jointly resolving contradictions and differences. Protectionism will only disrupt the global economic and trade order, hinder the security and stability of global supply chains and the healthy and orderly development of industrial cooperation, and pose long-term risks to global economic growth.

In a risk-on environment with a weaker US dollar, WTI consolidates weekly losses above $83,000

Alina Haynes

Sep 09, 2022 17:17

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The price of WTI crude oil is higher for the second day in a row while paring the weekly losses at the eight-month low on Friday during the Asian session. However, by the time of publication, the black gold has reached a new intraday high of around $83.50.

 

Recent news reports from the US Treasury Department regarding the oil price cap appear to have helped drive up energy prices together with stronger sentiment and a weaker US dollar. According to the US Treasury source, "the oil price cap should be set above the marginal production cost, taking into account past Russian oil prices."

 

In other news, stronger sentiment and slow US Treasury yields cause the US Dollar Index (DXY) to fall intraday by 0.55%, to 109.05 at the latest. It's interesting to see that after a solid day, the US 10-year Treasury yields are still stuck around 3.32%, while the S&P 500 Futures tracks Wall Street's gains at approximately 4,020.

 

Recent market sentiment appeared to be aided by remarks made by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, which suggested that trade relations between the US and China were set to improve. The market's attitude also appeared to have been aided by recently stronger US statistics and expectations that global central bankers will be able to offset the shock caused by inflation with a comprehensive strategy and higher rates. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article, on the other hand, raises some concerns about the future of China's technological enterprises and casts some doubt on the optimism.

 

A price document examined by Reuters on Friday revealed that Kuwait has decreased the official selling prices for its oil grades for the month of October from the previous month. Before the present program ends in October, US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said the administration of US President Joe Biden is considering whether additional releases of crude oil from the country's emergency stockpiles are necessary. Prior to that, a Department of Energy official reportedly told Reuters that the White House was only considering releasing the 180 million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) that the president had already stated.

 

It should be highlighted that the recent decline in China's inflation data, coupled with the hawkish central bank activities, presents a challenge to oil purchasers. Both China's Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) show unfavorable results for August. However, compared to 2.8% market expectations and 2.7% in the prior year, the headline CPI declined to 2.5% YoY, and the PPI fell to 2.3% from 3.1% projected and 4.2% in the preceding year.