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Conflict Situation 1. United States – ① Trump: Agreed to cancel strikes against Iran. ② U.S. Central Command: A U.S. Marine Corps F-35C stealth fighter took off from the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, which is sailing in the Arabian Sea to support the U.S. blockade of Iran. 2. Israel – Israel Defense Forces: Killed two Hamas commanders in Gaza over the weekend. ② Israel claims Netanyahu learned of the U.S. call for a halt to strikes against Iran through Trumps social media. ③ The Israel Defense Forces remain on high alert today, believing Iran may create unforeseen circumstances. 3. Iran – ① Iranian military: Trump called Irans demand to stop the attacks a "lie." ② A spokesperson for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard said the strike on the Amazon data center in Bahrain was a response to U.S. action; the spokesperson did not specify the timing of the strike. U.S.-Iran Negotiations 1. Iran – ① Iranian President: The memorandum of understanding with the United States will be central to our future diplomatic relations. ② Iranian Parliament National Security Committee: Mediators are assisting in the restoration of the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States, and all parties have exchanged views on all issues. 2. United States – ① Rubio: The US strikes have made Iran more willing to negotiate; the era of "negotiating without consequences" is over. Strait of Hormuz 1. Iranian media: Reports that Iran has agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are false. 2. Diplomatic sources report that Qatari diplomats are negotiating with Iran to secure the support of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard for arrangements related to the Strait of Hormuz. 3. Iranian Foreign Ministry: Negotiations with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz have entered the final stage. The Strait of Hormuz will not return to its pre-war state, and the issue of reopening is unrelated to the negotiations with Oman. Other developments 1. Saudi Foreign Minister speaks with Qatari Prime Minister. 2. Gulf states are dissatisfied with the US lack of a strategy against Iran. 3. Acting Iranian Defense Minister: Iran will not be "caught off guard" by its enemies, nor will it stand idly by. 4. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi speaks with Iraqi Foreign Minister; they discuss the latest developments in the region and ways to strengthen bilateral and regional cooperation. 5. The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) met on Sunday and stressed the importance of protecting international sea lanes to ensure the continued flow of energy.In early trading, the US dollar fell 0.3% against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY), currently trading at 157.16, down about 30 points from Fridays close.U.S. Senate Minority Leader Schumer: The continuing resolution announced today is a responsible choice.On August 3, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi spoke by phone with the Iraqi Foreign Minister, discussing the latest developments in the region, ways to strengthen bilateral and regional cooperation, and the most important issues of common concern to both countries.On August 3rd, US President Trump stated on Saturday evening (Eastern Time) that he would suspend a new round of attacks on Iran, awaiting the resumption of negotiations to end the war and restore cargo transport halted in the Strait of Hormuz. This is the latest example in a series of US presidents threatening large-scale attacks only to cancel them later. This sudden shift has become a prominent feature of the five-month-long US-Iran conflict. According to statistics, similar "scripts" have played out eight times so far. 1. April 7th: Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran less than two hours before the "deadline." At that time, he demanded Iran submit, or face attacks on bridges and power plants—which he claimed would mean "the destruction of an entire civilization." 2. April 21st: Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire agreement with Iran, just one day before the agreement expired, the same day the US launched attacks on Iranian oil tankers. 3. May 18th: After issuing harsh threats to Iran over the weekend, Trump stated he was suspending a large-scale military strike plan because "serious negotiations" were underway. By May 27th, the negotiations had broken down, and the US resumed attacks. 4. June 11: After two days of mutual attacks, Trump escalated his threats further, saying the U.S. would "strike hard tonight" Iran and "take full control" of its oil and gas industry. However, hours later, Trump posted on social media that negotiations had made a breakthrough and canceled the strikes. 5. June 17: Trump and Iran signed a preliminary agreement requiring a permanent cessation of hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while launching a 60-day countdown to negotiations to reach a final agreement on the future of Irans nuclear program. 6. July 7: Following Iranian attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump launched new strikes against Iran while attending the NATO leaders summit in Ankara, Turkey. He then again threatened to "get the job done," saying he believed the ceasefire was over. 7. July 27: Trump said he had paused two weeks of intensive daily strikes against Iran to give negotiations another chance. During the 13-day strikes, the U.S. military targeted key military and commercial facilities as tensions along shipping routes continued to escalate. 8. August 1: After telling reporters that the United States would strike Iran “severely,” Trump said on social media that he had canceled the planned strike, claiming that Middle Eastern allies had reached a framework agreement to end the war, including reopening the Straits.

In a risk-on environment with a weaker US dollar, WTI consolidates weekly losses above $83,000

Alina Haynes

Sep 09, 2022 17:17

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The price of WTI crude oil is higher for the second day in a row while paring the weekly losses at the eight-month low on Friday during the Asian session. However, by the time of publication, the black gold has reached a new intraday high of around $83.50.

 

Recent news reports from the US Treasury Department regarding the oil price cap appear to have helped drive up energy prices together with stronger sentiment and a weaker US dollar. According to the US Treasury source, "the oil price cap should be set above the marginal production cost, taking into account past Russian oil prices."

 

In other news, stronger sentiment and slow US Treasury yields cause the US Dollar Index (DXY) to fall intraday by 0.55%, to 109.05 at the latest. It's interesting to see that after a solid day, the US 10-year Treasury yields are still stuck around 3.32%, while the S&P 500 Futures tracks Wall Street's gains at approximately 4,020.

 

Recent market sentiment appeared to be aided by remarks made by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, which suggested that trade relations between the US and China were set to improve. The market's attitude also appeared to have been aided by recently stronger US statistics and expectations that global central bankers will be able to offset the shock caused by inflation with a comprehensive strategy and higher rates. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article, on the other hand, raises some concerns about the future of China's technological enterprises and casts some doubt on the optimism.

 

A price document examined by Reuters on Friday revealed that Kuwait has decreased the official selling prices for its oil grades for the month of October from the previous month. Before the present program ends in October, US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said the administration of US President Joe Biden is considering whether additional releases of crude oil from the country's emergency stockpiles are necessary. Prior to that, a Department of Energy official reportedly told Reuters that the White House was only considering releasing the 180 million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) that the president had already stated.

 

It should be highlighted that the recent decline in China's inflation data, coupled with the hawkish central bank activities, presents a challenge to oil purchasers. Both China's Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) show unfavorable results for August. However, compared to 2.8% market expectations and 2.7% in the prior year, the headline CPI declined to 2.5% YoY, and the PPI fell to 2.3% from 3.1% projected and 4.2% in the preceding year.