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On September 19th, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Stournaras stated that the ECB must be wary of upward inflation risks but should not act hastily. He noted that while a second-round effect through channels such as wages has not yet materialized, this situation cannot be taken for granted. "We are seeing a series of ongoing supply-side shocks that cannot be simply ignored. At the same time, there are strong demand factors due to fiscal expansion and the AI investment boom. We must remain vigilant." With more than a month until the next policy decision, Stournaras said he has not yet made a decision, and the various economic outlook forecasts prepared by the ECB may provide some guidance. "If inflation surges in September, or if rising energy costs clearly put us in an adverse scenario, then a rate hike in October cannot be ruled out. But if there are some doubts, we will not take any action but will wait for the next round of forecasts." Stournaras emphasized that this weeks Fed rate hike also helped the ECB, stating, "The Feds rate decision enhanced its credibility and also enhanced the credibility of global monetary policy, because the Fed and the dollar play a central role."September 19th - The French government stated that its draft budget for 2027 will meet EU recommendations, despite the countrys debt burden being projected to exceed 120% of economic output. The French Budget Ministry stated in a statement on Saturday that the budget plan projects net primary spending to increase by 0.7%, while the European Commission recommends an increase of no more than 1.2%. France is struggling to control its public finances amid weak economic growth and rising interest costs. On Thursday, the government announced that this years fiscal trajectory has deviated from its target, with the budget deficit projected to rise to 5.4% of GDP, while the previous fiscal law aimed to slightly narrow the deficit to 5%. The French Budget Ministry stated that the draft budget submitted to the public finance oversight body aims to reduce spending as a percentage of economic output to 56.9% by 2027, from 57.1% in 2026. On the same basis, tax revenue will account for 44.2%. Under this plan, Frances debt ratio is projected to rise from 119.3% this year and 115.7% in 2025 to 121.7% of economic output in 2027.On September 19, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce answered a reporters question regarding the US signing the "Graham Act of 2026 on Sanctions Against Russia and Iran" into law. China has consistently opposed unilateral sanctions lacking UN authorization and a basis in international law, and opposes so-called secondary sanctions against other countries based on the involvement of third parties. China has always conducted normal economic and trade cooperation with all countries in the world on the basis of equality and mutual benefit. Such cooperation is neither targeted at any third party nor subject to interference or coercion from any third party. We will continue to closely monitor subsequent US actions and reserve the right to take all necessary measures to firmly safeguard Chinas national sovereignty and development interests, as well as the legitimate rights and interests of its enterprises. We hope the US will work with China to maintain stable economic and trade relations through dialogue and consultation, and make greater contributions to maintaining world trade order and the security and stability of global supply chains.On September 19, the General Office of the Peoples Government of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region recently issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Guangxis Financial Industry." The plan states that by 2030, the overall strength of the financial industry will be significantly enhanced, the quality and efficiency of financial services to the real economy will be comprehensively improved, the function of Guangxi as a financial gateway to ASEAN will be fully upgraded, artificial intelligence and the financial industry will be deeply integrated, the financial market service system will be further optimized, financial governance capabilities and risk prevention and control levels will be significantly improved, the system and mechanism for the Partys leadership over financial work will be further improved, and a modern financial system that matches the positioning of "one region, two places, one park, and one channel" and adapts to the requirements of Guangxis chapter in Chinas modernization will be established.September 19th - At 18:50 Beijing time on September 19, 2026, my country successfully launched the Zhuzhou Space PIESAT-2 13-16 satellites into their predetermined orbit using a Long March-2D carrier rocket from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center. The launch mission was a complete success. This mission marked the 668th flight of the Long March series carrier rockets.

In a risk-on environment with a weaker US dollar, WTI consolidates weekly losses above $83,000

Alina Haynes

Sep 09, 2022 17:17

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The price of WTI crude oil is higher for the second day in a row while paring the weekly losses at the eight-month low on Friday during the Asian session. However, by the time of publication, the black gold has reached a new intraday high of around $83.50.

 

Recent news reports from the US Treasury Department regarding the oil price cap appear to have helped drive up energy prices together with stronger sentiment and a weaker US dollar. According to the US Treasury source, "the oil price cap should be set above the marginal production cost, taking into account past Russian oil prices."

 

In other news, stronger sentiment and slow US Treasury yields cause the US Dollar Index (DXY) to fall intraday by 0.55%, to 109.05 at the latest. It's interesting to see that after a solid day, the US 10-year Treasury yields are still stuck around 3.32%, while the S&P 500 Futures tracks Wall Street's gains at approximately 4,020.

 

Recent market sentiment appeared to be aided by remarks made by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, which suggested that trade relations between the US and China were set to improve. The market's attitude also appeared to have been aided by recently stronger US statistics and expectations that global central bankers will be able to offset the shock caused by inflation with a comprehensive strategy and higher rates. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article, on the other hand, raises some concerns about the future of China's technological enterprises and casts some doubt on the optimism.

 

A price document examined by Reuters on Friday revealed that Kuwait has decreased the official selling prices for its oil grades for the month of October from the previous month. Before the present program ends in October, US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said the administration of US President Joe Biden is considering whether additional releases of crude oil from the country's emergency stockpiles are necessary. Prior to that, a Department of Energy official reportedly told Reuters that the White House was only considering releasing the 180 million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) that the president had already stated.

 

It should be highlighted that the recent decline in China's inflation data, coupled with the hawkish central bank activities, presents a challenge to oil purchasers. Both China's Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) show unfavorable results for August. However, compared to 2.8% market expectations and 2.7% in the prior year, the headline CPI declined to 2.5% YoY, and the PPI fell to 2.3% from 3.1% projected and 4.2% in the preceding year.


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