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Market news: Leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have signed a memorandum of understanding on independence.September 14th - According to a Reuters survey, a majority of economists believe the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this week and at least once more before the end of March next year, reversing the previously fragile consensus that interest rates would remain unchanged. Following Fridays inflation report, the Reuters survey showed that 85% of economists believe the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, bringing the rate to 3.75%-4.00%, the first rate hike since July 2023. Nearly 53% of forecasters expect at least one more rate hike by the end of March, compared to 56% last week who believed rates would remain unchanged. The prevailing view of a rate cut in 2027 is no longer valid. Stephen Juneau, senior economist at Bank of America, said, "Wash has actually put himself in a position where the Fed will only abandon rate hikes if the data is very weak." He has been expecting three rate hikes this year since June. "We didnt initially meet that expectation... then we received this inflation report, and things became clearer."On September 14th, exclusive data compiled from reliable industry sources revealed that the outstanding assets of 14 wealth management companies (including 6 state-owned bank wealth management companies and 8 joint-stock bank wealth management companies, accounting for approximately 80% of the market share) with assets under management exceeding 1 trillion yuan reached approximately 27.4 trillion yuan as of the end of August, representing a net inflow of over 280 billion yuan compared to July. Data from the China Banking Wealth Management Registration and Custody Center shows that the total outstanding assets in the market reached 33.66 trillion yuan at the end of June this year. Based on the compiled data, even considering only the increase in assets under management by the 14 wealth management companies in the past two months (1.46 trillion yuan in July and 0.28 trillion yuan in August), the total size of the wealth management market has reached approximately 35.4 trillion yuan. In the first eight months of this year, the outstanding assets of the 14 major wealth management companies increased by approximately 1.96 trillion yuan. By product category, the scale of equity-inclusive products increased by over 1.98 trillion yuan, non-cash pure debt products increased by only about 176 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year, and cash products decreased by over 180 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year.September 14th - The German Finance Ministry stated on Monday that Germany will push for a windfall profits tax on energy companies during Fridays informal meeting of EU finance ministers. Meanwhile, the German government expressed growing concern about rising gasoline prices. A government spokesperson said, "We are closely monitoring developments with increasing concern." He added that recent price increases are placing a heavy burden on businesses and the public.GAIL, India’s state-owned natural gas company, says that liquefied natural gas prices exceeding $20 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) have impacted demand.

In a risk-on environment with a weaker US dollar, WTI consolidates weekly losses above $83,000

Alina Haynes

Sep 09, 2022 17:17

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The price of WTI crude oil is higher for the second day in a row while paring the weekly losses at the eight-month low on Friday during the Asian session. However, by the time of publication, the black gold has reached a new intraday high of around $83.50.

 

Recent news reports from the US Treasury Department regarding the oil price cap appear to have helped drive up energy prices together with stronger sentiment and a weaker US dollar. According to the US Treasury source, "the oil price cap should be set above the marginal production cost, taking into account past Russian oil prices."

 

In other news, stronger sentiment and slow US Treasury yields cause the US Dollar Index (DXY) to fall intraday by 0.55%, to 109.05 at the latest. It's interesting to see that after a solid day, the US 10-year Treasury yields are still stuck around 3.32%, while the S&P 500 Futures tracks Wall Street's gains at approximately 4,020.

 

Recent market sentiment appeared to be aided by remarks made by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, which suggested that trade relations between the US and China were set to improve. The market's attitude also appeared to have been aided by recently stronger US statistics and expectations that global central bankers will be able to offset the shock caused by inflation with a comprehensive strategy and higher rates. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article, on the other hand, raises some concerns about the future of China's technological enterprises and casts some doubt on the optimism.

 

A price document examined by Reuters on Friday revealed that Kuwait has decreased the official selling prices for its oil grades for the month of October from the previous month. Before the present program ends in October, US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said the administration of US President Joe Biden is considering whether additional releases of crude oil from the country's emergency stockpiles are necessary. Prior to that, a Department of Energy official reportedly told Reuters that the White House was only considering releasing the 180 million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) that the president had already stated.

 

It should be highlighted that the recent decline in China's inflation data, coupled with the hawkish central bank activities, presents a challenge to oil purchasers. Both China's Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) show unfavorable results for August. However, compared to 2.8% market expectations and 2.7% in the prior year, the headline CPI declined to 2.5% YoY, and the PPI fell to 2.3% from 3.1% projected and 4.2% in the preceding year.


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