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August 13th - As of 2:30 PM closing, the main Shanghai gold futures contract rose 0.36% to 959 yuan/gram, the main Shanghai silver futures contract rose 0.63% to 16,024 yuan/kilogram, and the main SC crude oil futures contract rose 0.63% to 556 yuan/barrel.August 13th - According to the Globe and Mail, the Canadian government is considering a proposed auto tariff package, hoping to accept some U.S. auto tariffs in exchange for lower U.S. tariffs on vehicles compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The package includes maintaining the exemption policy, meaning the value of U.S.-made parts in Canadian-exported cars will not be included in the tariff calculation. Sources indicate that U.S. and Canadian negotiators have discussed the proposal. Preliminary details suggest that the auto tariffs imposed by Trump under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 could be further reduced from the current 25% tariff on all USMCA-compliant Canadian auto exports. Furthermore, the value of U.S. parts in Canadian-made cars will remain excluded from the tariff calculation. Approximately 50% of the parts in a Canadian-made car come from the U.S., and businesses believe that a 10% to 15% tariff level would be acceptable if U.S. components were excluded. The goal is to reach an agreement by August 19th. Canadian officials believe that a deferral of the next round of tariffs is more likely by August 19th than a comprehensive resolution to the Section 232 tariff issue.On August 13th, the U.S. Treasury Department reported on Wednesday that the U.S. budget deficit has surged to its highest monthly level in more than five years, driven by soaring Medicare costs and continued pressure from federal debt interest payments. In addition to the significant single-month increase, the cumulative deficit for the first 10 months of fiscal year 2026 has approached $1.8 trillion, exceeding the figure for the same period in fiscal year 2025. The total deficit in July reached $432.3 billion, an increase of approximately 48% compared to the same period last year, marking the largest single-month deficit since March 2021 and setting a new July record. Medicare spending reached $174 billion that month, up from $103 billion in June, bringing the total for the year to $955 billion. This was the largest single expenditure in July, far exceeding Social Security spending of $141 billion and net interest payments on national debt of $104 billion. Furthermore, tariff rebates also impacted the budget by $33 billion. Additionally, U.S. fiscal revenue was negatively affected by a calendar factor of $99 billion, as the first day of the month was a non-working day. For years, Trump has urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to ease debt costs. Since his nominee, Warsh, took over as chairman in May, he has ceased criticizing the Fed.On August 13th, Reuters, citing sources, reported that Alphabet, the parent company of Google (GOOG.O), is undergoing a major leadership reshuffle at Google DeepMind, with some teams moving from DeepMind to the Google corporate system, further weakening DeepMinds autonomy. Sources said that Google co-founder Sergey Brin has been urging core AI employees in recent months to "fully commit" to the Gemini model and push for AI research in areas such as "recursive self-improvement." Following this reshuffle, DeepMind head Demis Hassabis will become chairman, with his deputy Kolai Kavukuoğlu taking over leadership responsibilities. Google stated that Kavukuoğlu will have final say on major decisions at DeepMind. Sources said that Google has postponed the release of the new flagship Gemini model by two months because internal testing showed it still lags behind competitors in areas such as programming. Analysts believe that Alphabets restructuring aims to accelerate AI commercialization and regain a competitive edge in model development, but some employees worry that DeepMinds long-term research autonomy may further decline.On August 13, according to a statement from the Iraqi Prime Ministers Media Office, Iraqi Prime Minister Mullah Zaidi met with visiting U.S. Central Command Commander General Robert Cooper on August 12. During the meeting, Zaidi reiterated Iraqs commitment to the established timetable, namely, September 30th is the final date for the international coalition forces to end their military mission in Iraq and complete their withdrawal. Zaidi stated that October 1st will be a new day in Iraqi history, when Iraq will completely rid itself of all foreign military presence, realize its territorial sovereignty, continuously enhance its national security and military capabilities, and safeguard its own security and stability.

In a risk-on environment with a weaker US dollar, WTI consolidates weekly losses above $83,000

Alina Haynes

Sep 09, 2022 17:17

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The price of WTI crude oil is higher for the second day in a row while paring the weekly losses at the eight-month low on Friday during the Asian session. However, by the time of publication, the black gold has reached a new intraday high of around $83.50.

 

Recent news reports from the US Treasury Department regarding the oil price cap appear to have helped drive up energy prices together with stronger sentiment and a weaker US dollar. According to the US Treasury source, "the oil price cap should be set above the marginal production cost, taking into account past Russian oil prices."

 

In other news, stronger sentiment and slow US Treasury yields cause the US Dollar Index (DXY) to fall intraday by 0.55%, to 109.05 at the latest. It's interesting to see that after a solid day, the US 10-year Treasury yields are still stuck around 3.32%, while the S&P 500 Futures tracks Wall Street's gains at approximately 4,020.

 

Recent market sentiment appeared to be aided by remarks made by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, which suggested that trade relations between the US and China were set to improve. The market's attitude also appeared to have been aided by recently stronger US statistics and expectations that global central bankers will be able to offset the shock caused by inflation with a comprehensive strategy and higher rates. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article, on the other hand, raises some concerns about the future of China's technological enterprises and casts some doubt on the optimism.

 

A price document examined by Reuters on Friday revealed that Kuwait has decreased the official selling prices for its oil grades for the month of October from the previous month. Before the present program ends in October, US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said the administration of US President Joe Biden is considering whether additional releases of crude oil from the country's emergency stockpiles are necessary. Prior to that, a Department of Energy official reportedly told Reuters that the White House was only considering releasing the 180 million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) that the president had already stated.

 

It should be highlighted that the recent decline in China's inflation data, coupled with the hawkish central bank activities, presents a challenge to oil purchasers. Both China's Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) show unfavorable results for August. However, compared to 2.8% market expectations and 2.7% in the prior year, the headline CPI declined to 2.5% YoY, and the PPI fell to 2.3% from 3.1% projected and 4.2% in the preceding year.