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On April 3, Carson Groups chief macro strategist, Sonu Varghese, stated that the latest labor force data indicates that the economy is adding enough jobs to keep pace with population growth. However, he pointed out, "This will complicate matters for the Federal Reserve, making it pointless to consider rate cuts, especially given the scale of the impending inflationary shock." He added that inflation was already present before the Middle East crisis that caused energy prices to soar, "ultimately, last years rate cuts appear to have been a mistake."April 3rd - According to foreign media reports, strong US labor market data reduced market bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut this year, causing US Treasury prices to fall and yields to rise by 3 to 5 basis points, with the policy-sensitive two-year Treasury yield leading the gains. The market had previously expected the Fed to ease monetary policy by only about 1 basis point this year, compared to about 4 basis points before the report was released. David Robin, interest rate strategist at TJM Institutional Services LLC, said the Fed is "very likely to keep rates unchanged until the end of June, or even longer." He added, "This is pre-conflict data, but even so, it shows a higher baseline (for rate cuts)."Iranian media quoted the deputy political governor of Ilam province as saying that claims of US troops entering or being deployed in Ilam province by helicopter are untrue, and that the security situation in Ilam province is currently completely stable; we urge the public not to pay attention to rumors and to obtain information through official channels.According to AXIOS: Iranian media and a source said that Iran shot down a U.S. fighter jet and a search and rescue operation is underway to find the two crew members.On April 3rd, WeChat Mini Games announced a further upgrade to its 2026 IAP (In-App Purchase) incentive program. New games launching for the first time will enjoy two phases of rewards, with a maximum of 20 million RMB in incentive funds for games that achieve a 50 million RMB revenue share without revenue sharing. For long-term operation, WeChat Mini Games will provide a 5% cash incentive for games that meet the launch period criteria, for every 2 million RMB in revenue generated in the past 30 days. Once the launch growth incentive fund is achieved, it will be settled monthly, providing cash flow support for developers. In addition, WeChat Mini Games will continue its PC incentive policy, with an additional targeted incentive in the first half of 2026 (while other incentive policies are in effect), returning 10% of PC advertising revenue from IAP mini games to promote the continued healthy growth of IAP mini games on PC.

In a risk-on environment with a weaker US dollar, WTI consolidates weekly losses above $83,000

Alina Haynes

Sep 09, 2022 17:17

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The price of WTI crude oil is higher for the second day in a row while paring the weekly losses at the eight-month low on Friday during the Asian session. However, by the time of publication, the black gold has reached a new intraday high of around $83.50.

 

Recent news reports from the US Treasury Department regarding the oil price cap appear to have helped drive up energy prices together with stronger sentiment and a weaker US dollar. According to the US Treasury source, "the oil price cap should be set above the marginal production cost, taking into account past Russian oil prices."

 

In other news, stronger sentiment and slow US Treasury yields cause the US Dollar Index (DXY) to fall intraday by 0.55%, to 109.05 at the latest. It's interesting to see that after a solid day, the US 10-year Treasury yields are still stuck around 3.32%, while the S&P 500 Futures tracks Wall Street's gains at approximately 4,020.

 

Recent market sentiment appeared to be aided by remarks made by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, which suggested that trade relations between the US and China were set to improve. The market's attitude also appeared to have been aided by recently stronger US statistics and expectations that global central bankers will be able to offset the shock caused by inflation with a comprehensive strategy and higher rates. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article, on the other hand, raises some concerns about the future of China's technological enterprises and casts some doubt on the optimism.

 

A price document examined by Reuters on Friday revealed that Kuwait has decreased the official selling prices for its oil grades for the month of October from the previous month. Before the present program ends in October, US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said the administration of US President Joe Biden is considering whether additional releases of crude oil from the country's emergency stockpiles are necessary. Prior to that, a Department of Energy official reportedly told Reuters that the White House was only considering releasing the 180 million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) that the president had already stated.

 

It should be highlighted that the recent decline in China's inflation data, coupled with the hawkish central bank activities, presents a challenge to oil purchasers. Both China's Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) show unfavorable results for August. However, compared to 2.8% market expectations and 2.7% in the prior year, the headline CPI declined to 2.5% YoY, and the PPI fell to 2.3% from 3.1% projected and 4.2% in the preceding year.


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