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April 17th - Gold prices rebounded somewhat amid optimism surrounding US-Iran negotiations, but further gains may be limited until the geopolitical situation becomes clearer. Analysts at Commerzbank stated, "Gold prices also rebounded on hopes of an end to the war, as this eased concerns that central banks would have to adopt tighter monetary policies to combat higher inflation risks, thus increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, as long as uncertainty remains high, the potential recovery in the gold market may be temporarily exhausted."On April 17th, Goldman Sachs Head of Asset Allocation Research, Mueller Grissmann, stated that the recent stock market rally needs the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts to maintain its momentum. He described the recent stock market rebound as a "rapid and intense recovery phase," driven in part by technical factors, including hedge funds that had previously sold off stocks to reduce risk and are now forced to rebuild their positions. While the S&P 500 is on track for a third consecutive week of gains exceeding 3%, he questioned whether the rally could be sustained without monetary policy support. He noted that the stock market rally coincided with high oil prices and a lagging credit market. The stock markets strong performance is partly due to its high exposure to technology stocks.The Kremlin warned that Europes provision of drones to Ukraine is dragging Europe toward war with Russia, and that these countries involvement in the war is escalating.On April 17th, Ebury strategist Matthew Ryan stated in a report that the pound would face downside risk if the ruling Labour Party performs poorly in the May local elections. He said this would further increase pressure on Prime Minister Starmers position, and the pound would be under pressure if the market anticipates that his potential successor will lead to greater spending and debt. Starmers fate has been questioned after media reports that former US Ambassador Peter Mandelson failed a security vetting process but was still approved for the position. Ryan stated that the betting market now considers the possibility of Starmer leaving before the end of June to be a real possibility.On April 17th, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), based on the public consultation in March 2023, and considering new situations and problems encountered in the regulatory practice of the futures industry, further studied and demonstrated the relevant institutional arrangements of the "Measures for the Supervision and Management of Futures Companies," resulting in a new "Draft Measures for the Supervision and Management of Futures Companies (for Public Comment)." Simultaneously, an "Announcement on Relevant Implementation Matters (for Public Comment)" was drafted as supporting implementation regulations. Public comments are now being solicited. The new "Draft Measures for the Supervision and Management of Futures Companies (for Public Comment)" changes the management of futures market-making and derivatives trading businesses, which were previously operated by risk management subsidiaries and subject to registration and self-regulation by the China Futures Association, to be operated by futures companies. It also implements licensing and administrative supervision, and strengthens the supervision of futures company subsidiaries and branches.

WTI fluctuates around $80.00 following a V-shaped recovery as OPEC and allies intervene

Alina Haynes

Nov 22, 2022 14:53

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Futures for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) have had a steep comeback to near the psychological resistance of $80.00 after reaching an 11-month low of $75.27. The black gold is hovering at the $80.00 threshold as Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman Al-comments Saud's have sparked supply concerns.

 

The Saudi Energy Minister affirmed that the existing OPEC+ agreement will remain until the end of 2023, confirming rumors that OPEC+ will intervene in the oil market to maintain oil prices from their unbalanced fluctuations. Previously, oil exporting nations agreed to reduce daily oil output by two million barrels in order to increase oil prices. The action is expected to disrupt the current demand-supply mechanism; consequently, oil prices are becoming more efficient.

 

On the demand side, the escalation of Covid-19 infections in China has prompted concerns over the future oil consumption. The present trend of increasing Covid-19 cases could push the Chinese government to reinstate Covid-19 limitations, as they are the sole means of restricting the virus's spread. The investment banking firm Goldman Sachs has reduced its projection for Brent crude oil prices in the fourth quarter from US$110 per barrel to US$100 per barrel due to the rising infection rates in China.

 

In the meantime, the demand for US Durable Goods will also reveal the future oil consumption in the US economy. According to forecasts, US Durable Goods Orders will settle at 0.4%, the same as their previous publication. Additional growth in the market for durable goods would eventually indicate oil demand forecasts.