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On April 19th, according to Hubei Daily, on April 16th, the V1000 passenger-type eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) prototype made its first public appearance after rolling off the assembly line at the Wuhan Xunqi Technology Co., Ltd. workshop in the Wuhan Economic and Technological Development Zone Low-Altitude Economy Industrial Park, attracting the attention of visitors. Reporters at the scene observed that the V1000 passenger-type aircrafts appearance is closer to that of a passenger plane, with windows and added seats. Xu Zhilin, chief engineer of the Wuhan Xunqi Technology project, said, "The V1000 passenger-type aircraft is expected to make its maiden flight in June this year. Currently, airworthiness certification work is underway, and it is expected to be officially launched to the market around 2030."US-Israel-Iran Conflict: ① Iran 1. Iran claims missile and drone production continues. 2. Irans Chief Justice: The enemy must pay war reparations. 3. Iran announces suspension of ticket sales; flights must be approved on a case-by-case basis. 4. Irans Civil Aviation Organization announces the reopening of some Iranian airspace. 5. Iranian Army Commander: The failure of the operation in Isfahan province was the main reason for the enemys ceasefire. 6. Irans First Vice President: Trumps remarks stem from his delusions and lies; there is no need to respond. 7. Satellite images show fires at two Iranian oil refineries, just days after multiple crude oil storage tanks at these refineries were damaged. 8. According to Iranian media Mizan: Iran will not open the Strait of Hormuz while the US blockade remains in place; Iran is reviewing recent US proposals. 9. According to Iranian media: Irans First Vice President stated that Iran is responsible for the management of the Strait of Hormuz. Either they (the US) give us rights at the negotiating table, or we will go to war. 10. Iran claims US-Israel attacks have killed 3,468 Iranians. 11. According to Irans Press TV: Iranian commanders claim to have shot down 170 US and Israeli drones during the war. ②US 1. US military: 21 ships have turned back to Iran as instructed by the US military. 2. US media: Trump convened a White House Situation Room meeting on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran negotiations, attended by the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, Secretary of the Treasury, and other senior officials. 3. US Central Command: The guided-missile destroyer USS Pinckney (DDG 91) patrolled the area to support the blockade operation. This blockade has completely blocked maritime economic and trade activities in and out of Iran. 4. According to the New York Times: US intelligence assessments suggest that Iran still retains about 40% of its pre-war drone inventory and has dug underground missile cities during the ceasefire. It currently possesses about 60% of its missile launchers and possibly as much as 70% of its missile inventory. ③Israel 1. The Israeli military established a new "Yellow Line" in southern Lebanon, aiming to implement the "Gaza Model." ④Strait of Hormuz 1. Trump stated that there will be no tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. 2. Several ships attempted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz but ultimately turned back. 3. Maritime News: Iranian Revolutionary Guard opened fire on oil tankers attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz. 4. US Central Command: Since the blockade began, 23 ships have turned back at the instruction of the US military. 5. Five Iranian oil tankers attempted to break through the US blockade by concealing navigation data. US destroyers forced three Iranian oil tankers to return and are pursuing two more. 6. Indian Government: The Indian Foreign Secretary expressed deep concern over the shooting incident involving two Indian-flagged vessels in the Strait of Hormuz earlier today. 7. According to Axios: A US Department of Defense official stated that the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard has launched at least three attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz since Saturday morning (local time). 8. Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard: The Strait of Hormuz has been blocked from the evening of the 18th until the US blockade is lifted. 9. Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has come to a standstill again. ⑤ Ceasefire Negotiations 1. Islamabad traffic control escalates in preparation for US-Iran negotiations. 2. Iran is reviewing new US proposals and has not yet responded. 3. Iran stated it has not yet agreed to hold the next round of negotiations with the US. 4. Trump responded to the inconsistency in US and Iranian messages: because Iran also has people it needs to appease. 5. Advisor to Irans Supreme Leader: Internal unity and the resistance front cannot be used as bargaining chips. 6. Trump warned that if negotiations fail, he might acquire Irans uranium stockpile in a "more unfriendly way." 7. On the 17th, Trump stated regarding Iran that he had just received "some pretty good news, mainly that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons." 8. Trump: If an agreement cannot be reached with Iran by the 22nd, the ceasefire may not be extended. 9. Trump: The US and Iran are in dialogue, and there will be news before the end of today. Iran cannot blackmail us by closing the Strait again. 10. The Iranian Parliament Speaker stated that there is still a long way to go before reaching a final agreement with the US. ⑥ Other situations: 1. The Pakistani delegation concluded its visit to Iran. 2. UNIFIL was attacked in southern Lebanon, resulting in 1 death and 3 injuries. 3. The US announced sanctions against 7 commanders of Iraqi militia groups. 4. International Maritime Organization: Approximately 20,000 seafarers are stranded in the Persian Gulf. 5. Iraq claims oil exports from all oil fields will resume within days. 6. British Foreign Secretary urges full resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. 7. Hezbollah leader: Will respond to violations of the ceasefire agreement. 8. Israeli military says its attacks on militants in several Lebanese regions are "unrestricted by the ceasefire." 9. Hezbollah denies attacking UNIFIL soldiers in Lebanon. 10. Rosatom CEO: Rosatom is prepared to assist Iran in transporting enriched uranium. 11. IATA: Flight cancellations in Europe could begin as early as the end of next month; countries need to coordinate responses. 12. Élysée Palace: Macron, after speaking with the Lebanese president and prime minister, stated that the attack on UNIFIL soldiers in Lebanon is unacceptable. 13. Lloyds Ship Daily reports that the average price of ultra-low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) for marine propulsion has fallen to $856 per ton. The price is down 19% from the wartime peak in the Middle East, but is still 73% higher than the average price in January and February.On April 19th, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf stated in an interview with local media that Iran accepted the ceasefire to express its demands. He emphasized that negotiations are a form of struggle, and Irans primary goal should be to advance and consolidate national rights within this framework. Regarding the progress of negotiations with the United States, Ghalibaf stated that while the negotiations have not eliminated mutual distrust, both sides have gained a more pragmatic understanding of each other. Some issues have been resolved, while others remain unresolved, and he believes there is still a long way to go before a final agreement is reached. He also stressed that Iran maintains its position on certain issues, and these demands are non-negotiable.On April 19, local time, the South Korean National Security Office held an emergency security briefing regarding North Koreas ballistic missile launch. According to the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff, North Korea launched several unidentified ballistic missiles from the Sinpo area into the East Sea (Sea of Japan) at approximately 6:10 AM. North Korea has not yet responded.On April 19th, according to Israeli sources, the Israeli military has established a new "Yellow Line" in southern Lebanon, aiming to implement a "Gaza Model" there. Previously, the "Yellow Line" only referred to the ceasefire line in the Gaza Strip. According to the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, the area outside the "Yellow Line" was under Israeli control, and the Israeli military had repeatedly shot and killed Palestinians who crossed the "Yellow Line." According to Israeli sources, the new "Yellow Line" refers to a strip of "defense zone" controlled by the Israeli military, extending approximately 10 kilometers along the temporary Israeli-Lebanese border towards the Lebanese side. Even during the ceasefire, the Israeli military continued operations along the new "Yellow Line" closer to the Israeli side. Other Israeli reports indicate that the Israeli military is implementing the "Gaza Model" in southern Lebanon, setting up obstacles within the newly demarcated "Yellow Line buffer zone" to prevent residents from returning to their homes, clearing Hezbollah infrastructure there, and strengthening a "multi-layered defense line" extending to the Litani River in southern Lebanon.

WTI crude oil drifts above $80.00 amidst a US Dollar rebound and supply shortage concerns

Alina Haynes

Apr 10, 2023 14:16

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In the early hours of Monday, purchasers of WTI crude oil struggled to maintain the price above $80.70 as risk aversion and hawkish Fed forecasts bolstered the US Dollar. However, threats to Oil supplies, primarily emanating from China and OPEC+, appear to keep purchasers of black gold optimistic.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses a four-day downtrend near 102.25 despite the inability of US Treasury bond yields to recover due to recession concerns. However, US 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields remain under pressure near 3.37 percent and 3.95 percent, respectively. In doing so, the benchmark bond coupons extend the previous day's losses and illustrate the market's flight to protection in response to concerns of an economic decline.

 

In spite of this, the recent disappointing US data reignite concerns of a recession in the world's largest economy and challenge the optimists in the energy sector. However, the positive US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data enabled Fed hawks to return to the table and renew demands for a 0.25 percentage point rate hike in May. The same constrains the value of the US dollar and stimulates demand for WTI crude oil.

 

On the other hand, geopolitical concerns surrounding China, particularly after the dragon nation's military exercises near Taiwan, combine with last week's unexpected OPEC+ production cut to keep Oil purchasers optimistic.

 

China's willingness to defend the global economy through robust monetary and fiscal easing at home also enables Oil purchasers to maintain optimism in the face of optimism among the world's largest Oil consumers.

 

The Easter Monday holiday in spot markets may limit Oil price movements, but the investors appear to be out of steam, so US inflation and Fed Minutes will be closely monitored for signs of a pullback.