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According to Reuters, a senior Iranian official said that indirect negotiations with the United States, which began in Doha on Tuesday evening (local time), are still ongoing. The indirect talks with the US focus on releasing funds from Tehran and the Strait of Hormuz.The number of Challenger job cuts in the U.S. in June will be released in ten minutes.July 1st - 9 Air announced today that it will reduce domestic fuel surcharges starting July 5th, 2026 (ticket issuance date). The surcharge will be 100 yuan per passenger for routes over 800 kilometers and 50 yuan per passenger for routes of 800 kilometers or less. This represents a reduction of 50 yuan and 30 yuan respectively compared to the previous rates. Domestic fuel surcharges saw significant increases in April and May of this year, followed by a reduction of 20 yuan and 10 yuan starting June 5th. With declining fuel prices, the July reduction will be even more substantial.July 1st - Eurozone inflation slowed more than expected as Middle East peace efforts pushed global energy prices lower. Data released by Eurostat on Wednesday showed that consumer prices rose 2.8% year-on-year in June, down from 3.2% in the previous month. This increase was also below the median forecast of 3% in a Bloomberg survey. Core inflation, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, also fell more than expected, while the closely watched services inflation indicator fell to 3.2%. The European Central Bank is assessing whether last months interest rate hike was sufficient to curb inflationary pressures stemming from the conflict between the US and Iran. June data already showed that consumer price increases in the Eurozones three largest economies were all lower than expected; in particular, Frances inflation rate even fell sharply to the ECBs 2% target level.July 1st - Eurozone inflation fell far more than expected in June, further easing pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates again this month to curb rapid price increases. The Eurozones overall inflation rate fell to 2.8% in June from 3.2% in May, below the expected 3.0%; inflation in food, energy, and services prices all slowed. Meanwhile, inflation excluding volatile food and fuel prices fell to 2.4% from 2.6%, with services price inflation falling to 3.2% from 3.5%. Although the June figures remain well above the ECBs 2% target, recent oil price declines driven by market bets on a US-Iran peace agreement have fueled optimism that price pressures may be easing and the widespread negative impact of soaring energy prices will remain limited. In fact, several ECB policymakers have stated that the ECB does not need to rush into action this month, and policymakers have time to observe the evolution of price pressures.

WTI crude oil drifts above $80.00 amidst a US Dollar rebound and supply shortage concerns

Alina Haynes

Apr 10, 2023 14:16

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In the early hours of Monday, purchasers of WTI crude oil struggled to maintain the price above $80.70 as risk aversion and hawkish Fed forecasts bolstered the US Dollar. However, threats to Oil supplies, primarily emanating from China and OPEC+, appear to keep purchasers of black gold optimistic.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses a four-day downtrend near 102.25 despite the inability of US Treasury bond yields to recover due to recession concerns. However, US 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields remain under pressure near 3.37 percent and 3.95 percent, respectively. In doing so, the benchmark bond coupons extend the previous day's losses and illustrate the market's flight to protection in response to concerns of an economic decline.

 

In spite of this, the recent disappointing US data reignite concerns of a recession in the world's largest economy and challenge the optimists in the energy sector. However, the positive US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data enabled Fed hawks to return to the table and renew demands for a 0.25 percentage point rate hike in May. The same constrains the value of the US dollar and stimulates demand for WTI crude oil.

 

On the other hand, geopolitical concerns surrounding China, particularly after the dragon nation's military exercises near Taiwan, combine with last week's unexpected OPEC+ production cut to keep Oil purchasers optimistic.

 

China's willingness to defend the global economy through robust monetary and fiscal easing at home also enables Oil purchasers to maintain optimism in the face of optimism among the world's largest Oil consumers.

 

The Easter Monday holiday in spot markets may limit Oil price movements, but the investors appear to be out of steam, so US inflation and Fed Minutes will be closely monitored for signs of a pullback.


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