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May 6th - According to data released by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Wednesday, wage growth in the Eurozone is expected to slow this year, despite rising energy prices due to the Middle East conflict. The ECBs wage tracker shows wages are projected to rise by 2.6% this year, following a 3% increase in 2025. This figure for 2026 remains unchanged from the March forecast. ECB officials have emphasized that the outcome of wage negotiations is a key indicator for determining whether rising energy prices will trigger a sustained rise in inflation above its 2% target. ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the ECB will closely monitor the data and conduct in-depth analysis of the wage agreement and collective bargaining agreement to be negotiated soon. The ECB kept its key interest rate unchanged last week but hinted that it might raise rates at its June meeting if the upward momentum in inflation since the start of the conflict in late February continues. The tracker indicates that there are currently no clear signs that the wage agreement will exacerbate inflation this year.European Central Bank: Wage growth is expected to reach 2.6% in the third and fourth quarters of 2026.1. UniCredit: +55,000; Sparta Capital Securities: +55,000; Standard Chartered Bank: +70,000; ING: +75,000; 2. Bank of America: +75,000; Sumitomo Mitsui: +98,000; Bank of Montreal: +120,000; Deutsche Bank: +120,000; 3. HSBC: +120,000; Mizuho Securities: +145,000; Pansen Macro: +150,000; Scotiabank: +150,000; 4. BNP Paribas: +155,000; Oxford Economics: +160,000; Goldman Sachs: +170,000; [Reuters forecast: +99,000]On May 6th, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated that the final Eurozone PMI data for April confirmed previous signs of a recession. The ongoing Middle East conflict disrupted the recovery momentum that was forming before the conflict, and the Eurozone economy slipped into a downturn in April. While the data so far only shows a slight 0.1% decline in quarterly GDP, there is no indication that the crisis will ease in the short term, meaning the economic downturn could deepen soon. So far, the service sector has been hit the hardest, with consumer-facing industries particularly strained by the double whammy of soaring energy prices and travel disruptions. However, while the manufacturing sector has shown resilience so far, this reflects stockpiling by businesses fearing further price increases and supply shortages. This not only means that manufacturing growth will be subdued in the coming months as the stockpiling effect subsides, but also, if these supply and price concerns materialize, it will have a ripple effect on service sector businesses that rely on inputs for manufactured goods, especially food, and of course, refined fuels.German Engineering Federation: Orders for German construction machinery increased by 27% year-on-year in March.

WTI crude oil drifts above $80.00 amidst a US Dollar rebound and supply shortage concerns

Alina Haynes

Apr 10, 2023 14:16

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In the early hours of Monday, purchasers of WTI crude oil struggled to maintain the price above $80.70 as risk aversion and hawkish Fed forecasts bolstered the US Dollar. However, threats to Oil supplies, primarily emanating from China and OPEC+, appear to keep purchasers of black gold optimistic.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses a four-day downtrend near 102.25 despite the inability of US Treasury bond yields to recover due to recession concerns. However, US 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields remain under pressure near 3.37 percent and 3.95 percent, respectively. In doing so, the benchmark bond coupons extend the previous day's losses and illustrate the market's flight to protection in response to concerns of an economic decline.

 

In spite of this, the recent disappointing US data reignite concerns of a recession in the world's largest economy and challenge the optimists in the energy sector. However, the positive US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data enabled Fed hawks to return to the table and renew demands for a 0.25 percentage point rate hike in May. The same constrains the value of the US dollar and stimulates demand for WTI crude oil.

 

On the other hand, geopolitical concerns surrounding China, particularly after the dragon nation's military exercises near Taiwan, combine with last week's unexpected OPEC+ production cut to keep Oil purchasers optimistic.

 

China's willingness to defend the global economy through robust monetary and fiscal easing at home also enables Oil purchasers to maintain optimism in the face of optimism among the world's largest Oil consumers.

 

The Easter Monday holiday in spot markets may limit Oil price movements, but the investors appear to be out of steam, so US inflation and Fed Minutes will be closely monitored for signs of a pullback.


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