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Hindustan Petroleum executives: Oil supplies for August have been secured.Vietnam National Oil and Gas Group: Nghe Son refinery has secured crude oil supplies and can maintain operations until the end of September.On July 23, futures markets reported that CBOT soybean futures closed 1.3% higher as the US Midwest was expected to experience another period of high temperatures unfavorable for soybean growth, and rising international crude oil futures provided support to the market. US soybeans are entering the most critical period for yield formation. Concerns about weather in major producing areas, strong demand, and support from rising crude oil prices have injected upward momentum into the US soybean market, driving up the cost of imported soybeans. The domestic soybean meal market, led by costs and expectations, followed the US soybean rebound. However, with ample supply of imported soybeans and continuously rising soybean meal inventories but limited downstream demand, prices continued to rise slightly.1. Commerzbank: Expects the rate to remain unchanged at this meeting, with another rate hike in September. President Lagarde will emphasize inflation risks but is unlikely to commit to a September rate hike ahead of schedule. 2. Scotiabank: Expects the rate to remain unchanged at this meeting due to the current period of high uncertainty. However, market sentiment indicators suggest a hawkish stance remains dominant overall. 3. ING: Expects the rate to remain unchanged at this meeting, but the possibility of an unexpected rate hike cannot be ruled out. The central bank is expected to release hawkish signals, and a September rate hike remains the main market theme. 4. Daiwa Securities: Expects the rate to remain unchanged at this meeting. The September meeting will be a possible point for the next rate hike. The meeting statement is expected to continue to avoid forward guidance and reiterate that there is no predetermined path for interest rates. 5. TD Securities: Expects the rate to remain unchanged at this meeting. President Lagarde is expected to continue to leave open the possibility of a September rate hike at the press conference, but will not provide clear forward guidance. 6. Nuveen: Expects the rate to remain unchanged at this meeting, but will maintain a tighter tone. If renewed tensions drive up energy prices, the central bank will remain open to further tightening policy. 7. Deutsche Bank: Expects the meeting to keep interest rates unchanged and maintains its baseline expectation of a second and final rate hike (to 2.50%) in September. 8. Morgan Stanley: Expects the meeting to keep interest rates unchanged; only the uncertainty surrounding oil prices is enough to prompt the central bank to avoid a clear bias in either direction in its policy statement or press conference. 9. Danske Bank: Expects the meeting to keep interest rates unchanged; President Lagarde is expected to continue to maintain ample flexibility in the future policy path, leaving the possibility of a September rate hike uncommitted. 10. BNY Mellon: Expects the meeting to keep interest rates unchanged; the central banks policy communication will remain closely linked to its macroeconomic scenario, and a "severe" deterioration path remains a tail risk. 11. MUFG: The possibility of consecutive rate hikes at this meeting is extremely low; the continued rebound in energy prices supports the forecast of a further 25 basis point rate hike in September. 12. Nordea Bank: A July rate hike may not be under consideration by the central bank if energy prices do not rise significantly, but the probability of a September rate hike remains high, suggesting the central banks rate hike cycle is not yet over. 13. Reuters poll: All 74 economists said the central bank will keep rates unchanged in July. 52 of the 74 economists expect the central bank to raise rates again in 2026. 14. Franklin: Expects the European Central Bank to raise rates for the last time in September, then remain on hold and begin easing policy in 2027.July 23 (Futures News) – Zhengzhou rapeseed meal futures opened higher and then fluctuated upwards. Rapeseed futures closed higher, with the benchmark contract rising 2.42%, reaching its highest level in three years. This mainly reflected the strength of crude oil futures and market concerns about weather conditions in parts of the grasslands. Rapeseed meal spot prices rose slightly. Soybean meals strong substitution advantage squeezed rapeseed meal demand. Currently, rapeseed meal demand is mainly driven by immediate needs, while supply is increasing, leading to continued market volatility and adjustment.

WTI crude oil drifts above $80.00 amidst a US Dollar rebound and supply shortage concerns

Alina Haynes

Apr 10, 2023 14:16

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In the early hours of Monday, purchasers of WTI crude oil struggled to maintain the price above $80.70 as risk aversion and hawkish Fed forecasts bolstered the US Dollar. However, threats to Oil supplies, primarily emanating from China and OPEC+, appear to keep purchasers of black gold optimistic.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses a four-day downtrend near 102.25 despite the inability of US Treasury bond yields to recover due to recession concerns. However, US 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields remain under pressure near 3.37 percent and 3.95 percent, respectively. In doing so, the benchmark bond coupons extend the previous day's losses and illustrate the market's flight to protection in response to concerns of an economic decline.

 

In spite of this, the recent disappointing US data reignite concerns of a recession in the world's largest economy and challenge the optimists in the energy sector. However, the positive US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data enabled Fed hawks to return to the table and renew demands for a 0.25 percentage point rate hike in May. The same constrains the value of the US dollar and stimulates demand for WTI crude oil.

 

On the other hand, geopolitical concerns surrounding China, particularly after the dragon nation's military exercises near Taiwan, combine with last week's unexpected OPEC+ production cut to keep Oil purchasers optimistic.

 

China's willingness to defend the global economy through robust monetary and fiscal easing at home also enables Oil purchasers to maintain optimism in the face of optimism among the world's largest Oil consumers.

 

The Easter Monday holiday in spot markets may limit Oil price movements, but the investors appear to be out of steam, so US inflation and Fed Minutes will be closely monitored for signs of a pullback.