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A Reuters poll showed that 65% of economists surveyed expect the Bank of Japan to raise its key interest rate to 1.00% in June.A Reuters poll shows that the Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates to 1.25% in the fourth quarter and to 1.50% in the third quarter of 2027 (unchanged from the April poll results).The Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia stated that the country will inevitably be directly and indirectly affected by the Middle East conflict. The Malaysian economy is expected to remain resilient in 2026, with growth projected at 4%-5%. Despite external headwinds, technological expansion will support export growth. Strong domestic demand will provide strong support against external headwinds.Central Bank of Malaysia: Indicators show that overall price conditions remained relatively under control as of early May. Overall inflation is expected to rise slightly in 2026. The ringgit remains resilient despite ongoing Middle East conflicts.On May 15th, the Bank of Japan stated that Japan may face another round of across-the-board price increases around the summer as businesses ranging from food manufacturers to hot spring resorts consider passing on soaring energy costs caused by the Middle East conflict to consumers. In a report based on a survey of regional businesses conducted from January to April, the Bank of Japan noted that many service sector companies are gradually passing on rising raw material and labor costs to consumers, abandoning their long-standing practice of maintaining low prices. The report stated that rising energy costs due to the Middle East conflict have also prompted companies to accelerate price increases in their fiscal year business plans starting in April. Some companies, including those in the food, restaurant, and hot spring resort industries, have decided to raise prices at a faster pace. The report stated, "Other companies indicated they will soon decide whether to raise prices. As for the specific timing, some companies indicated they will decide around the summer or later." This report highlights the Bank of Japans growing concern about accumulating inflationary pressures in the economy, which could provide further justification for a near-term interest rate hike.

WTI crude oil drifts above $80.00 amidst a US Dollar rebound and supply shortage concerns

Alina Haynes

Apr 10, 2023 14:16

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In the early hours of Monday, purchasers of WTI crude oil struggled to maintain the price above $80.70 as risk aversion and hawkish Fed forecasts bolstered the US Dollar. However, threats to Oil supplies, primarily emanating from China and OPEC+, appear to keep purchasers of black gold optimistic.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses a four-day downtrend near 102.25 despite the inability of US Treasury bond yields to recover due to recession concerns. However, US 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields remain under pressure near 3.37 percent and 3.95 percent, respectively. In doing so, the benchmark bond coupons extend the previous day's losses and illustrate the market's flight to protection in response to concerns of an economic decline.

 

In spite of this, the recent disappointing US data reignite concerns of a recession in the world's largest economy and challenge the optimists in the energy sector. However, the positive US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data enabled Fed hawks to return to the table and renew demands for a 0.25 percentage point rate hike in May. The same constrains the value of the US dollar and stimulates demand for WTI crude oil.

 

On the other hand, geopolitical concerns surrounding China, particularly after the dragon nation's military exercises near Taiwan, combine with last week's unexpected OPEC+ production cut to keep Oil purchasers optimistic.

 

China's willingness to defend the global economy through robust monetary and fiscal easing at home also enables Oil purchasers to maintain optimism in the face of optimism among the world's largest Oil consumers.

 

The Easter Monday holiday in spot markets may limit Oil price movements, but the investors appear to be out of steam, so US inflation and Fed Minutes will be closely monitored for signs of a pullback.


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