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The commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard stated that the United States and Israel have completely failed in achieving their goals against the Islamic regime, and their leaders have shown no response to their repeated failures in the face of public opinion, elites, and their own people.According to Irans Fars News Agency, Bulgaria claims that a Ukrainian drone attacked the Trans-Balkan Gas Pipeline this morning, which carries Russian gas to Europe via Türkiye.August 9th - Analysts point out that the market generally expects the US CPI to rise 0.1% month-on-month in July, after a 0.4% decline in June. The core CPI, excluding fuel and food, is expected to rise 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, the smallest year-on-year increase since February. The slowdown in inflation may help alleviate inflationary anxieties within the Federal Reserve following Fridays weak July non-farm payroll report. Previously, at the July 29th meeting, three officials voted to raise interest rates. The CPI report is likely to show that energy-related price pressures have eased, pressures that intensified sharply in the months following the start of the US-Iran conflict in late February. Retail gasoline prices fell to their lowest point in nearly four months in early July before rebounding to above $4 per gallon by the end of the month. The report may also show that airfares have declined as jet fuel costs have stabilized.On August 9th, local time, the U.S. Central Command stated that on August 8th, U.S. Navy personnel were performing maintenance on F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jets aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier to ensure the carrier strike groups equipment remained operational and to continue strictly enforcing the naval blockade against Iran. As of that day, the U.S. military had diverted 53 merchant ships, rendered two ships inoperable, and boarded and inspected two other vessels. In addition, the U.S. military allowed more than 30 ships carrying humanitarian aid to pass through the blockade zone.On August 9th, US Vice President Vance stated on the 8th that the US and Iran are in dialogue, and the US-Iran conflict remains in the "middle of the game." In an interview with Fox News that day, Vance said the US-Iran conflict is not over, "but its clearly no longer in the initial stages, but has entered the middle stages." He stated that the US is using a combination of diplomatic, economic, and military means to ensure the best possible outcome. Vance said the USs current primary focus is "to maximize the amount of oil and gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz," and the US is observing whether Iran is willing to make the necessary long-term changes to establish a better relationship with the US. If Iran is unwilling, the US will continue to exert pressure. Vance also said the US is trying to establish a navigation mechanism to ensure the safe passage of ships. This includes mine-clearing operations, and "also requires a commitment from Iran to guarantee that it will not fire on merchant ships."

WTI crude oil drifts above $80.00 amidst a US Dollar rebound and supply shortage concerns

Alina Haynes

Apr 10, 2023 14:16

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In the early hours of Monday, purchasers of WTI crude oil struggled to maintain the price above $80.70 as risk aversion and hawkish Fed forecasts bolstered the US Dollar. However, threats to Oil supplies, primarily emanating from China and OPEC+, appear to keep purchasers of black gold optimistic.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses a four-day downtrend near 102.25 despite the inability of US Treasury bond yields to recover due to recession concerns. However, US 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields remain under pressure near 3.37 percent and 3.95 percent, respectively. In doing so, the benchmark bond coupons extend the previous day's losses and illustrate the market's flight to protection in response to concerns of an economic decline.

 

In spite of this, the recent disappointing US data reignite concerns of a recession in the world's largest economy and challenge the optimists in the energy sector. However, the positive US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data enabled Fed hawks to return to the table and renew demands for a 0.25 percentage point rate hike in May. The same constrains the value of the US dollar and stimulates demand for WTI crude oil.

 

On the other hand, geopolitical concerns surrounding China, particularly after the dragon nation's military exercises near Taiwan, combine with last week's unexpected OPEC+ production cut to keep Oil purchasers optimistic.

 

China's willingness to defend the global economy through robust monetary and fiscal easing at home also enables Oil purchasers to maintain optimism in the face of optimism among the world's largest Oil consumers.

 

The Easter Monday holiday in spot markets may limit Oil price movements, but the investors appear to be out of steam, so US inflation and Fed Minutes will be closely monitored for signs of a pullback.