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July 11th - According to the official WeChat account of Hangzhou Metro, due to the impact of Typhoon Bavi (No. 9), Hangzhou City has activated a Level I typhoon emergency response. Starting at 6:00 AM on July 12th, the entire metro network will be suspended, with the resumption time to be announced separately.On July 11, Claudio Descalzi, CEO of Eni, the Italian state-owned holding group, stated that if the Middle East conflict continues, the global oil market will break through the current range of approximately $80 to $100 per barrel by the first quarter of 2027 at the latest, pushing up inflation and reducing energy demand. In an interview published Saturday in Il Sole 24 Ore, Descalzi said that the release of strategic reserves has so far helped keep crude oil prices roughly within this range, but this strategy is facing increasing risks because global reserves are finite. “The long-term solution is to enhance energy security through the diversification of supply sources and routes,” he said. Descalzi noted that global oil inventories have fallen by an average of 3.8 million barrels per day due to disruptions related to the war with Iran that began at the end of February, accelerating to an average of 4.6 million barrels per day in May. He stated that countries should focus on producers in North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia, while reducing reliance on controlled maritime routes.July 11th - Industry insiders stated that historically, during periods of high demand in the memory chip industry, manufacturers tend to simultaneously expand production capacity, leading to a concentrated release of new capacity, a price crash, and industry-wide losses. Subsequently, manufacturers collectively reduce capital expenditures, and when demand recovers, another boom occurs – this cycle constitutes the industrys unique cyclical pattern. Since reaching its peak in late June, US memory chip stocks have experienced a collective correction due to concerns about overcapacity, triggered by news such as Metas sale of computing power. Data shows that industry leaders such as SanDisk, Micron Technology, Seagate Technology, and Western Digital have all seen their stock prices fall by more than 20% in the past few weeks. Analysts point out that the underlying logic supporting current demand for memory chips is facing a reassessment, with the core variable being whether the technological gap between various AI large-scale models will continue to narrow. Analysts also pointed out that the memory chip industry is undergoing a profound change in its business model: in the past, memory was more like a commodity, with prices fluctuating with the market, and contracts were mostly on a quarterly or annual basis; now, cloud vendors and AI data centers are increasingly signing long-term supply agreements with original equipment manufacturers for three to five years, with price ranges, minimum purchase quantities, and customer deposits, in order to ensure critical supply.July 11 - Due to the impact of Typhoon Bavi, the ninth typhoon of this year, the Hangzhou Bay Bridge will be closed in both directions starting at 19:30 today, prohibiting all vehicles from passing through.The CEO of Italian oil company Eni said that if the Middle East conflict continues, the oil market may break out of its current range in early 2027.

WTI crude oil drifts above $80.00 amidst a US Dollar rebound and supply shortage concerns

Alina Haynes

Apr 10, 2023 14:16

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In the early hours of Monday, purchasers of WTI crude oil struggled to maintain the price above $80.70 as risk aversion and hawkish Fed forecasts bolstered the US Dollar. However, threats to Oil supplies, primarily emanating from China and OPEC+, appear to keep purchasers of black gold optimistic.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses a four-day downtrend near 102.25 despite the inability of US Treasury bond yields to recover due to recession concerns. However, US 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields remain under pressure near 3.37 percent and 3.95 percent, respectively. In doing so, the benchmark bond coupons extend the previous day's losses and illustrate the market's flight to protection in response to concerns of an economic decline.

 

In spite of this, the recent disappointing US data reignite concerns of a recession in the world's largest economy and challenge the optimists in the energy sector. However, the positive US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data enabled Fed hawks to return to the table and renew demands for a 0.25 percentage point rate hike in May. The same constrains the value of the US dollar and stimulates demand for WTI crude oil.

 

On the other hand, geopolitical concerns surrounding China, particularly after the dragon nation's military exercises near Taiwan, combine with last week's unexpected OPEC+ production cut to keep Oil purchasers optimistic.

 

China's willingness to defend the global economy through robust monetary and fiscal easing at home also enables Oil purchasers to maintain optimism in the face of optimism among the world's largest Oil consumers.

 

The Easter Monday holiday in spot markets may limit Oil price movements, but the investors appear to be out of steam, so US inflation and Fed Minutes will be closely monitored for signs of a pullback.