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July 19th - According to CNN, the US military announced that two US troops stationed in Jordan were killed in action yesterday, and another is missing. This news is bound to further fuel anger among those in the US who oppose the war. In the first phase of the US-Iran war, 13 US military personnel have already died. Subsequently, a pilot died in a plane crash, bringing the death toll to 14. The latest casualties will bring the total number of US military deaths to 16, or even 17. This is clearly an extremely difficult moment for Trump. The American public generally does not support the war, and these casualties are likely to further erode public support for the war.According to Israels Channel 13, the United States is preparing to expand its operations against Iran by sending approximately 100 refueling aircraft to the Middle East. Israeli defense agencies are preparing for a potential major escalation in the region.July 19th - According to Axios, US military officials stated that two US service members were killed and several others injured in an Iranian ballistic missile attack on a Jordanian airbase on Saturday. This attack marks the first US military deaths since the conflict resumed two weeks ago. It also brings the total number of US military deaths in this round of the war to 16. It is reported that Iran launched at least two ballistic missiles on Saturday, hitting the Mowafak Salti airbase in Jordan. This base houses US troops and fighter jets.U.S. Central Command: Two U.S. service members were killed in Jordan on July 17, and another U.S. service member is missing.July 19th - A study released on the 18th by the Italian Confederation of Business, Tourism and Services Businesses indicates that with increasingly frequent extreme weather events, prolonged heatwaves could cause Italy economic losses of €6 billion to €12 billion (approximately RMB 46.5 billion to 93 billion) annually. The report points out that if Italy experiences 30 to 60 days of extreme heat each year, businesses will face multiple pressures, including rising energy costs, decreased labor productivity, forced increases in adaptive investments, and reduced turnover. High temperatures will also alter consumer and tourism habits, further impacting the commerce and tourism sectors.

WTI crude oil drifts above $80.00 amidst a US Dollar rebound and supply shortage concerns

Alina Haynes

Apr 10, 2023 14:16

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In the early hours of Monday, purchasers of WTI crude oil struggled to maintain the price above $80.70 as risk aversion and hawkish Fed forecasts bolstered the US Dollar. However, threats to Oil supplies, primarily emanating from China and OPEC+, appear to keep purchasers of black gold optimistic.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses a four-day downtrend near 102.25 despite the inability of US Treasury bond yields to recover due to recession concerns. However, US 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields remain under pressure near 3.37 percent and 3.95 percent, respectively. In doing so, the benchmark bond coupons extend the previous day's losses and illustrate the market's flight to protection in response to concerns of an economic decline.

 

In spite of this, the recent disappointing US data reignite concerns of a recession in the world's largest economy and challenge the optimists in the energy sector. However, the positive US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data enabled Fed hawks to return to the table and renew demands for a 0.25 percentage point rate hike in May. The same constrains the value of the US dollar and stimulates demand for WTI crude oil.

 

On the other hand, geopolitical concerns surrounding China, particularly after the dragon nation's military exercises near Taiwan, combine with last week's unexpected OPEC+ production cut to keep Oil purchasers optimistic.

 

China's willingness to defend the global economy through robust monetary and fiscal easing at home also enables Oil purchasers to maintain optimism in the face of optimism among the world's largest Oil consumers.

 

The Easter Monday holiday in spot markets may limit Oil price movements, but the investors appear to be out of steam, so US inflation and Fed Minutes will be closely monitored for signs of a pullback.


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