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June 2nd - Eurozone inflation surpassed 3% for the first time in two and a half years, further reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates at its meeting next week. Eurostat reported on Tuesday that the CPI rose 3.2% year-on-year in May, up from 3% in the previous month and in line with the median forecast. Core inflation, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, rose sharply to 2.5%, exceeding expectations, while the closely watched services index jumped to 3.5%. Markets expect the ECB to raise interest rates in June for the first time since September 2023. Officials appear to have concluded that they can no longer wait and must respond immediately to the impact of the Middle East conflict.On June 2nd, the State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Accelerating the Modernization of Agriculture and Rural Areas." The plan mentions promoting the research and application of high-end, intelligent agricultural machinery and equipment suitable for hilly and mountainous areas. It also calls for the categorized cultivation of leading enterprises in the agricultural machinery and equipment sector, manufacturing single-item champion enterprises, and specialized and innovative SMEs, supporting enterprises in strengthening production line technological transformation and accelerating digital transformation, and building strong advanced manufacturing clusters and SME characteristic industrial clusters in the agricultural machinery and equipment sector. The plan systematically promotes the research and development of new energy agricultural machinery and equipment technologies, industrial collaboration, and infrastructure construction. It also calls for the orderly development of the low-altitude economy in the agricultural and rural sectors. Furthermore, it emphasizes strengthening independent research and development of modern facility agriculture equipment and the categorized and orderly upgrading and renovation of old facilities. Finally, it implements a "preferential subsidy for superior machinery" and "entry and exit" system for agricultural machinery purchase and application subsidies, as well as the scrapping and replacement of old agricultural machinery.The UK government has unveiled its proposed seventh carbon budget, setting a target of reducing emissions by 87% between 2038 and 2042.Scotiabank raised its price target for Oracle (ORCL.N) from $215 to $290.On June 2nd, the State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Accelerating Agricultural and Rural Modernization," clarifying the guiding principles, objectives, key tasks, and policy measures for accelerating agricultural and rural modernization during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The plan emphasizes using accelerated agricultural and rural modernization to better advance Chinas modernization drive. The plan proposes that by 2030, the foundation of food security will be continuously strengthened, the quality, efficiency, and competitiveness of agriculture will be continuously improved, the achievements in poverty alleviation will be further consolidated and expanded, the level of self-reliance in agricultural science and technology will be significantly enhanced, significant progress will be made in building agriculture into a modern large-scale industry, farmers income will continue to grow rapidly, the construction of livable, workable, and beautiful villages will be accelerated, new breakthroughs will be achieved in urban-rural integration, and remarkable results will be achieved in high-quality agricultural and rural development. The plan also provides an outlook for 2035.

WTI crude oil drifts above $80.00 amidst a US Dollar rebound and supply shortage concerns

Alina Haynes

Apr 10, 2023 14:16

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In the early hours of Monday, purchasers of WTI crude oil struggled to maintain the price above $80.70 as risk aversion and hawkish Fed forecasts bolstered the US Dollar. However, threats to Oil supplies, primarily emanating from China and OPEC+, appear to keep purchasers of black gold optimistic.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses a four-day downtrend near 102.25 despite the inability of US Treasury bond yields to recover due to recession concerns. However, US 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields remain under pressure near 3.37 percent and 3.95 percent, respectively. In doing so, the benchmark bond coupons extend the previous day's losses and illustrate the market's flight to protection in response to concerns of an economic decline.

 

In spite of this, the recent disappointing US data reignite concerns of a recession in the world's largest economy and challenge the optimists in the energy sector. However, the positive US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data enabled Fed hawks to return to the table and renew demands for a 0.25 percentage point rate hike in May. The same constrains the value of the US dollar and stimulates demand for WTI crude oil.

 

On the other hand, geopolitical concerns surrounding China, particularly after the dragon nation's military exercises near Taiwan, combine with last week's unexpected OPEC+ production cut to keep Oil purchasers optimistic.

 

China's willingness to defend the global economy through robust monetary and fiscal easing at home also enables Oil purchasers to maintain optimism in the face of optimism among the world's largest Oil consumers.

 

The Easter Monday holiday in spot markets may limit Oil price movements, but the investors appear to be out of steam, so US inflation and Fed Minutes will be closely monitored for signs of a pullback.