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On June 23, according to Futures News, as of June 22, the closing price of benzene in the mainstream market in East China was 7185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 485 yuan/ton from 7670 yuan/ton on June 1. Progress in US-Iran negotiations and the drop in European and American crude oil futures to their early March lows dragged down market confidence. Coupled with the continued pressure of losses in downstream industries, there was low enthusiasm for purchasing raw material benzene, with priority given to fulfilling existing contracts. Spot trading was inactive, putting downward pressure on benzene prices to some extent. However, the lack of imported cargo ships arriving at major ports in East China for an extended period provided support at the market bottom, limiting the decline in benzene prices. Looking ahead, inventory reduction at major ports in East China is expected to continue in June, and market sentiment remains cautious, with few willing to short sell. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term, but the downside is limited.On June 23rd, Futures News reported that crude oil prices fluctuated significantly during the day. Following the strait blockade, oil prices initially rose, but subsequently retreated from their highs after the successful negotiations between the US and Iran and the reopening of the strait. The Middle East situation remains the core factor driving wide price fluctuations. Zhuochuang Information predicts that with the successful US-Iran negotiations and the resulting agreements, market anxieties have significantly eased, and the center of gravity for oil price fluctuations will gradually shift downwards. In the short term, oil prices are expected to continue their weak trend.Indias preliminary composite PMI for June was 57.4, below the expected 59 and the previous reading of 59.3.Indias June services PMI preliminary reading was 57.3, below the expected 58.8 and the previous reading of 59.8.The yield on Japans two-year government bonds rose 1.0 basis point to 1.415%.

WTI crude oil drifts above $80.00 amidst a US Dollar rebound and supply shortage concerns

Alina Haynes

Apr 10, 2023 14:16

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In the early hours of Monday, purchasers of WTI crude oil struggled to maintain the price above $80.70 as risk aversion and hawkish Fed forecasts bolstered the US Dollar. However, threats to Oil supplies, primarily emanating from China and OPEC+, appear to keep purchasers of black gold optimistic.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses a four-day downtrend near 102.25 despite the inability of US Treasury bond yields to recover due to recession concerns. However, US 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields remain under pressure near 3.37 percent and 3.95 percent, respectively. In doing so, the benchmark bond coupons extend the previous day's losses and illustrate the market's flight to protection in response to concerns of an economic decline.

 

In spite of this, the recent disappointing US data reignite concerns of a recession in the world's largest economy and challenge the optimists in the energy sector. However, the positive US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data enabled Fed hawks to return to the table and renew demands for a 0.25 percentage point rate hike in May. The same constrains the value of the US dollar and stimulates demand for WTI crude oil.

 

On the other hand, geopolitical concerns surrounding China, particularly after the dragon nation's military exercises near Taiwan, combine with last week's unexpected OPEC+ production cut to keep Oil purchasers optimistic.

 

China's willingness to defend the global economy through robust monetary and fiscal easing at home also enables Oil purchasers to maintain optimism in the face of optimism among the world's largest Oil consumers.

 

The Easter Monday holiday in spot markets may limit Oil price movements, but the investors appear to be out of steam, so US inflation and Fed Minutes will be closely monitored for signs of a pullback.


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