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On May 5th, following the Reserve Bank of Australias (RBA) third consecutive interest rate hike and raising its cash rate target to 4.35%, the rate remains below Societe Generales year-end forecast of 4.7%. Societe Generale economists stated in a report, "The RBA still has room to maneuver and may raise rates at least one more time." Economists expect the RBA to maintain interest rates at 4.7% throughout 2027 and the first half of 2028, predicting core inflation will peak at 3.8% in the second quarter, before falling to 3.1% by the end of 2026. They added, "A pause in rate hikes in June seems inevitable," noting that RBA Governor Bullocks more neutral tone prompted demand for short-term rates, simultaneously pushing the yield curve for Australian 2-year and 10-year government bonds into a "bull market steepening."The World Health Organization says it plans to medically evacuate the two people on board who are infected with Hantavirus, and the cruise ship will continue its journey to the Canary Islands.World Health Organization: Our hypothesis is that the Hantavirus cases were contracted outside the cruise ship where the incident occurred.Iranian border police commander: Five smuggling vessels carrying 200,000 liters of smuggled fuel were seized in Khuzestan province.The China Earthquake Networks Center officially reported that a magnitude 3.1 earthquake occurred at 17:05 on May 5 in Kuqa City, Aksu Prefecture, Xinjiang (41.35 degrees north latitude, 83.89 degrees east longitude), with a focal depth of 15 kilometers.

WTI crude oil drifts above $80.00 amidst a US Dollar rebound and supply shortage concerns

Alina Haynes

Apr 10, 2023 14:16

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In the early hours of Monday, purchasers of WTI crude oil struggled to maintain the price above $80.70 as risk aversion and hawkish Fed forecasts bolstered the US Dollar. However, threats to Oil supplies, primarily emanating from China and OPEC+, appear to keep purchasers of black gold optimistic.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses a four-day downtrend near 102.25 despite the inability of US Treasury bond yields to recover due to recession concerns. However, US 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields remain under pressure near 3.37 percent and 3.95 percent, respectively. In doing so, the benchmark bond coupons extend the previous day's losses and illustrate the market's flight to protection in response to concerns of an economic decline.

 

In spite of this, the recent disappointing US data reignite concerns of a recession in the world's largest economy and challenge the optimists in the energy sector. However, the positive US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data enabled Fed hawks to return to the table and renew demands for a 0.25 percentage point rate hike in May. The same constrains the value of the US dollar and stimulates demand for WTI crude oil.

 

On the other hand, geopolitical concerns surrounding China, particularly after the dragon nation's military exercises near Taiwan, combine with last week's unexpected OPEC+ production cut to keep Oil purchasers optimistic.

 

China's willingness to defend the global economy through robust monetary and fiscal easing at home also enables Oil purchasers to maintain optimism in the face of optimism among the world's largest Oil consumers.

 

The Easter Monday holiday in spot markets may limit Oil price movements, but the investors appear to be out of steam, so US inflation and Fed Minutes will be closely monitored for signs of a pullback.


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