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BNP Paribas expects the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged in March, whereas it had previously anticipated a rate cut.March 11 – Due to persistent inflationary pressures, two major Australian banks expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise interest rates for the second consecutive week. National Australia Bank (NAB) and Westpac predicted on Wednesday that the RBA will raise rates by 25 basis points to 4.1% next week, in line with expectations from UBS and Deutsche Bank. NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld stated, “Given Australia’s relatively unfavorable inflation starting point and recent data confirming that the economy is running well above trend growth, the rationale for a rate hike in the near term is clear.” Westpac Chief Economist Luci Ellis said that the RBA’s belief that demand continues to exceed economic capacity and its willingness to address surging overall inflation to prevent a sustained rise in price expectations prompted her to change her forecast. Ellis stated, “There could be disagreements at next week’s meeting. Market participants should consider the possibility that the RBA might choose to wait until May to raise rates, but this is no longer our base case scenario.”March 11 (Kyodo News) – Japanese Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Ryosuke Akazawa stated on Wednesday during a parliamentary committee meeting, in response to questions from lawmakers, that the Japanese government has not ruled out the possibility of releasing national oil reserves "on its own initiative," rather than as part of a coordinated action. He added, "We will take all possible measures to ensure a stable energy supply." As of the end of December, Japans total oil reserves were sufficient to meet domestic consumption needs for 254 days, of which 146 days worth were held by the government, 101 days worth were held by the private sector, and the remainder were stored jointly with oil-producing countries.March 11th - This years government work report further clarified the need to "expand market access with a focus on the service sector," accelerating Beijings new round of opening up. In the first batch of pilot programs nationwide to expand opening up in areas such as value-added telecommunications and healthcare, Beijing became the first city in China to establish a foreign-invested enterprise specializing in human gene diagnosis and treatment technology. To date, more than 60 foreign-invested enterprises have participated in the pilot programs. Last year, Beijing saw over 2,400 new foreign-invested enterprises, a record high. According to the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce, this year will see the release of the 3.0 plan for the comprehensive demonstration zone for expanding opening up in the service sector, the implementation of actions to enhance the opening-up level of key industrial parks, the promotion of differentiated development of comprehensive bonded zones, and proactive alignment with high-standard international trade and economic rules, injecting new momentum into a higher level of opening up.Market news: The Saudi Foreign Minister spoke with the US Secretary of State to discuss Irans regional aggression.

Natural Gas Price Prediction: XNG/USD depicts corrective rebound near $2.15, 20-month low

Daniel Rogers

Apr 10, 2023 14:21

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Natural Gas (XNG/USD) gains bids to consolidate recent losses near $2.17, gaining 0.55% intraday on Monday. In doing so, the energy source recovers from its lowest levels in twenty months, recorded the previous day, amidst fears of a supply crunch emanating from China and Russia.

 

The visit of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen to the United States has sparked a new round of tensions between the United States and China, as China conducts large-scale military exercises near the Taiwan Strait. The same could be considered a risk-negative and a major challenge for Gas transportation, allowing the XNG/USD to lick its wounds near levels not seen since August 2020. The island's defense ministry reported multiple air force sorties and was monitoring China's missile forces, as reported by Reuters.

 

On the other hand, the four-week downward trend of the US Dollar and rumors encircling the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate reduction in late 2023 appear to support the corrective rebound of the quote, due to its inverse relations with the USD.

 

In addition, the beginning of the summer travel season in Europe and Russia's willingness to heighten geopolitical concerns about Ukraine by employing nuclear weapons in the multi-month-long conflict with Kyiv both favor XNG/USD purchasers.

 

The price of Natural Gas is impacted by concerns of a dismal winter in the West and Russia's inability to capitalize on its gas monopoly. In a similar vein could be the recession concerns, which are largely supported by the most recent negative US data.

 

Nonetheless, the ebullient US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) numbers released on Friday bolster hawkish Fed wagers. With this, the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests 69% odds of the 0.25% rate rise in May, versus 55% before the US employment report.

 

While portraying the atmosphere, S&P 500 Futures print modest losses around 4,132 while snapping a two-day uptrend whereas the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields remain pressured near 3.37% and 3.95% respectively. In doing so, the benchmark bond coupons extend the previous day’s losses and depict the market’s stampede toward the risk-safety amid economic slowdown concerns. Further, the US Dollar Index (DXY) nurses its wounds around a two-month low while the WTI crude oil rises to $80.80 by the press time.

 

Looking forward, the Easter Monday holiday can restrict the market’s intraday moves. However, updates from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will be crucial for near-term directions as speculative assets seem losing their appeal. It’s worth mentioning that the commencement of earnings season will also be essential for traders to monitor amid recession woes.