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February 13th - Electric vehicle manufacturer Rivian warned that its losses this year may be higher than expected as it works to control costs during the critical period leading up to the launch of its next-generation SUV. In releasing its fourth-quarter earnings report, Rivian projected an adjusted EBITDA loss of $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion for 2026. While the final figure in this range represents an improvement over last years loss, it exceeded analysts previous expectations of a loss of approximately $1.8 billion. This forecast indicates that Rivians path to profitability remains bumpy, facing weak demand for electric vehicles, high raw material costs, and the loss of regulatory credit revenue following the Republican-led repeal of electric vehicle-friendly policies. Rivian also stated that its highly anticipated R2 mid-size electric SUV will go on sale as planned in the second quarter. This model is crucial for Rivian to achieve higher production volumes and improved profitability, as it will be launched at a lower price.Rivian (RIVN.O) reported fourth-quarter revenue of $1.286 billion, compared to market expectations of $1.263 billion.The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 669.42 points, or 1.34%, at 49,451.98 on Thursday, February 12; the S&P 500 closed down 108.71 points, or 1.57%, at 6,832.76; and the Nasdaq Composite closed down 469.32 points, or 2.03%, at 22,597.15.February 13th - US stocks closed with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.34%, the S&P 500 down 1.57%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 2.03%. Apple (AAPL.O) plunged 5%, Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell 1.64%, and Amazon (AMZN.O) dropped 2.2%. SanDisk (SNDK.O) rose 5%.Sources say that Midad Energy, backed by Saudi Arabia, has signed a term sheet to acquire assets from sanctioned Lukoil, pending regulatory approval.

WTI crude oil climbs above $80.00 as NFP and recession fears contend with an OPEC+ surprise

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:36

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As energy markets celebrate the Good Friday holiday, WTI crude oil prices remain stable around $80.50, poised for a three-week uptrend. In doing so, black gold defends the week-beginning gains provided by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, headed by Russia, known as OPEC+, who announced a surprise output cut. However, concerns of a recession and a cautious disposition ahead of the March US employment report have recently posed a challenge to the energy benchmark.

 

The OPEC+ group startled the market with a voluntary output decline of nearly 1.66 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated, in response to the OPEC+ announcements, that the OPEC+ decision to reduce oil output risks aggravating a stressed market by driving up oil prices in response to inflationary pressures.

 

On the other hand, the US Dollar's weakness, bolstered by disappointing US data, supported the recovery of the black gold.

 

In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has a four-day losing streak and is currently trading around 102.000.

 

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 increased to 228K from 200K expected and an upwardly revised 246K the previous week. Notable is that the Challenger Job Cuts for the given month increased from 77,77K to 89,703K. Previously, US JOLTS Job Openings fell to a 19-month low in February, and March's ADP Employment Change figures of 145K also disappointed markets. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI for March decreased to 51.2 compared to 54.5 anticipated and 55.1 previously.

 

China's optimism for economic development and optimistic activity data from the dragon nation could also support the oil price. Pan Gongsheng, the director of China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), stated on Friday that Beijing "will defend itself against external financial market shocks and risks."

 

It should be noted, however, that recent calls for a recession pose a challenge to WTI crude oil purchasers, and more signs of economic decline should be monitored for direction, particularly when commodity prices trade near the key short-term resistance line.

 

In addition to the news about the recession, the March US employment report will be crucial to monitor for direction. Analysts anticipate a decline in headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to 240K from 311K previously, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 3.6%. However, the contradictory forecasts for Average Hourly Wages make the outcome even more intriguing.


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