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The China Earthquake Networks Center automatically determined that an earthquake of approximately magnitude 3.1 occurred near Beichuan County, Mianyang City, Sichuan Province at 11:01 on February 8. The final result is subject to the official rapid report.February 8th - Danish officials stated on the 7th that despite the commencement of diplomatic dialogue with the United States, negotiations between Denmark and the US regarding Greenland have not met expectations. On the same day, Danish Foreign Minister Rasmussen, Greenlandic Foreign Minister Vivian Mozfeldt, and Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand held a joint press conference in Nuuk, the capital of Greenland, to celebrate the official opening of the Canadian Consulate in Nuuk on the 6th. Mozfeldt said that the current situation has "improved somewhat" compared to a month ago, mainly due to the establishment of direct diplomatic channels of dialogue with the United States, but Greenland has not achieved the expected results in the negotiations. She said, "There is still a long way to go, so it is too early to say what the outcome will be."On February 8th, Lu Zhe, chief economist at Dongwu Securities, pointed out that from a medium- to long-term price structure perspective, gold has been in a continuous upward trend since 2020, but the recent price movement has changed. The time it took for London gold to rise from $2,000/ounce to $3,000/ounce, from $3,000/ounce to $4,000/ounce, and from $4,000/ounce to $5,000/ounce has shortened, and the price increase slope shows an accelerating characteristic. He believes this phenomenon reflects that against the backdrop of rising macroeconomic uncertainty and increased risk premiums, the way funds price gold has gradually shifted from "trend-driven allocation" to "emotion and expectation-driven," and the price is reacting to positive factors faster than in previous periods. This accelerated price movement, while strengthening the medium- to long-term upward trend, also means increased sensitivity to external disturbances in the short term.Conflict Status: 1. Russian troops have captured the settlement of Chukyuevka in eastern Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian General Staff: Attacked an oil depot in Russias Saratov region. 3. Russian Ministry of Defense: Russian forces launched a large-scale attack on Ukrainian military energy and transportation infrastructure. 4. Zelensky: Russia launched more than 400 drones and about 40 missiles to attack Ukraines energy sector. 5. The governor of the Kursk region of Russia stated that 47 Ukrainian drones were shot down in the region in the past 24 hours. 6. Ukrainian General Staff: Ukrainian forces are continuously wearing down Russian forces along the entire front and in the rear, repelling multiple Russian attacks in the Leman and Pokrovsk directions. Peace Negotiations: 1. Trump said the US-Russia-Ukraine talks "could go wrong." 2. Zelensky: Does not support a peace agreement that violates the Ukrainian constitution. 3. Zelensky: The US seeks to push for a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by June. 4. Zelensky: The possibility of holding a trilateral summit to discuss thorny issues has been proposed. 5. Zelensky: The US proposed a meeting between Russian and Ukrainian delegations in Miami in a week, and Ukraine has agreed. Other developments: 1. Energy facilities attacked; Ukraine says it has requested emergency electricity assistance from Poland. 2. Two suspects arrested in the attack on the Russian lieutenant general; the Ukrainian Foreign Minister denies any Ukrainian involvement in the attack. 3. International Atomic Energy Agency: Following a new round of military activity affecting power substations, Ukrainian nuclear power plants again reduced power output this morning. 4. Ukrainian Foreign Minister: Ukraine supports calls for a truce with Russia during the Winter Olympics, following proposals from Italy and the Pope. 5. Polish Army Operations Command: Polish air operations related to Russian airstrikes on Ukraine have ended. No violations of Polish airspace occurred. Southeastern Polish airspace was briefly closed previously.On February 8th, Fujian Province issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Urban Development," which proposes to systematically advance the construction of "good houses." This includes accelerating the construction of a new real estate development model and improving the "market + guarantee" housing supply system. The document also calls for implementing a housing quality improvement project to enhance the entire housing chain, from design and construction to maintenance and services, and vigorously promoting the construction of safe, comfortable, green, and smart "good houses." Furthermore, it aims to build a modern industrial system for residential construction. The document also emphasizes steadily advancing the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing, supporting the independent renewal and reconstruction of old housing, continuously promoting the renovation of old urban residential communities, and implementing an action plan to improve the quality of property services.

WTI crude oil climbs above $80.00 as NFP and recession fears contend with an OPEC+ surprise

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:36

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As energy markets celebrate the Good Friday holiday, WTI crude oil prices remain stable around $80.50, poised for a three-week uptrend. In doing so, black gold defends the week-beginning gains provided by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, headed by Russia, known as OPEC+, who announced a surprise output cut. However, concerns of a recession and a cautious disposition ahead of the March US employment report have recently posed a challenge to the energy benchmark.

 

The OPEC+ group startled the market with a voluntary output decline of nearly 1.66 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated, in response to the OPEC+ announcements, that the OPEC+ decision to reduce oil output risks aggravating a stressed market by driving up oil prices in response to inflationary pressures.

 

On the other hand, the US Dollar's weakness, bolstered by disappointing US data, supported the recovery of the black gold.

 

In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has a four-day losing streak and is currently trading around 102.000.

 

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 increased to 228K from 200K expected and an upwardly revised 246K the previous week. Notable is that the Challenger Job Cuts for the given month increased from 77,77K to 89,703K. Previously, US JOLTS Job Openings fell to a 19-month low in February, and March's ADP Employment Change figures of 145K also disappointed markets. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI for March decreased to 51.2 compared to 54.5 anticipated and 55.1 previously.

 

China's optimism for economic development and optimistic activity data from the dragon nation could also support the oil price. Pan Gongsheng, the director of China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), stated on Friday that Beijing "will defend itself against external financial market shocks and risks."

 

It should be noted, however, that recent calls for a recession pose a challenge to WTI crude oil purchasers, and more signs of economic decline should be monitored for direction, particularly when commodity prices trade near the key short-term resistance line.

 

In addition to the news about the recession, the March US employment report will be crucial to monitor for direction. Analysts anticipate a decline in headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to 240K from 311K previously, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 3.6%. However, the contradictory forecasts for Average Hourly Wages make the outcome even more intriguing.


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