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UN Secretary-General António Guterres strongly condemns Saturdays attack on the UN Interim Force in Lebanon, which resulted in the death of a French peacekeeper and injuries to three others.April 19 – Asian Development Bank President Masato Kanda stated that the yen could face further pressure if the market perceives the Bank of Japan as too slow to address inflation risks. Kanda, a former top foreign exchange diplomat for Japan, told reporters Friday evening that investors are buying dollars during periods of global tension, partly because the US is an oil exporter, but even if these positions are unwound, the yen is unlikely to appreciate significantly against the dollar. He said, “The biggest reason is the interest rate differential. With the market particularly focused on potential actions by the Federal Reserve, if many believe the Bank of Japan will lag behind the curve in addressing inflation risks, the yen will be left behind.” Speaking in Washington this week at meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group, Kanda added that investors might also sell yen if they are concerned about Japan’s fiscal sustainability.The China Earthquake Networks Center officially reported that a magnitude 3.4 earthquake occurred at 05:27 on April 19 in Ando County, Nagqu City, Tibet (32.62 degrees north latitude, 90.36 degrees east longitude), with a focal depth of 10 kilometers.U.S. State Department: All parties agreed to facilitate the free movement of humanitarian personnel, assets, and humanitarian convoys.On April 19, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghae posted a sarcastic message on social media, stating that the "international law" touted by the EU is nothing more than a tool used to lecture others while ignoring the US and Israeli aggression against Iran and the atrocities committed against Iranians. He argued that Europes long-standing inconsistency between words and deeds has rendered "international law" a mere hypocritical rhetoric. He countered that no international law prohibits Iran, as a coastal state, from taking necessary measures to prevent the Straits from being used for military aggression against it. As for the "unconditional right of transit," it became meaningless the moment the US and Israel brought military forces into the Straits backyard.

WTI crude oil climbs above $80.00 as NFP and recession fears contend with an OPEC+ surprise

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:36

 截屏2022-11-24 下午3.13.23.png

 

As energy markets celebrate the Good Friday holiday, WTI crude oil prices remain stable around $80.50, poised for a three-week uptrend. In doing so, black gold defends the week-beginning gains provided by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, headed by Russia, known as OPEC+, who announced a surprise output cut. However, concerns of a recession and a cautious disposition ahead of the March US employment report have recently posed a challenge to the energy benchmark.

 

The OPEC+ group startled the market with a voluntary output decline of nearly 1.66 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated, in response to the OPEC+ announcements, that the OPEC+ decision to reduce oil output risks aggravating a stressed market by driving up oil prices in response to inflationary pressures.

 

On the other hand, the US Dollar's weakness, bolstered by disappointing US data, supported the recovery of the black gold.

 

In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has a four-day losing streak and is currently trading around 102.000.

 

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 increased to 228K from 200K expected and an upwardly revised 246K the previous week. Notable is that the Challenger Job Cuts for the given month increased from 77,77K to 89,703K. Previously, US JOLTS Job Openings fell to a 19-month low in February, and March's ADP Employment Change figures of 145K also disappointed markets. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI for March decreased to 51.2 compared to 54.5 anticipated and 55.1 previously.

 

China's optimism for economic development and optimistic activity data from the dragon nation could also support the oil price. Pan Gongsheng, the director of China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), stated on Friday that Beijing "will defend itself against external financial market shocks and risks."

 

It should be noted, however, that recent calls for a recession pose a challenge to WTI crude oil purchasers, and more signs of economic decline should be monitored for direction, particularly when commodity prices trade near the key short-term resistance line.

 

In addition to the news about the recession, the March US employment report will be crucial to monitor for direction. Analysts anticipate a decline in headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to 240K from 311K previously, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 3.6%. However, the contradictory forecasts for Average Hourly Wages make the outcome even more intriguing.


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