EUR/USD 1.16304
0.176%
Gold 5208.17
0.314%
Oil 82.381
-3.351%
USD/JPY 158.189
0.096%
GBP/USD 1.34509
0.253%
GBP/JPY 212.784
0.394%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
March 11 – Due to persistent inflationary pressures, two major Australian banks expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise interest rates for the second consecutive week. National Australia Bank (NAB) and Westpac predicted on Wednesday that the RBA will raise rates by 25 basis points to 4.1% next week, in line with expectations from UBS and Deutsche Bank. NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld stated, “Given Australia’s relatively unfavorable inflation starting point and recent data confirming that the economy is running well above trend growth, the rationale for a rate hike in the near term is clear.” Westpac Chief Economist Luci Ellis said that the RBA’s belief that demand continues to exceed economic capacity and its willingness to address surging overall inflation to prevent a sustained rise in price expectations prompted her to change her forecast. Ellis stated, “There could be disagreements at next week’s meeting. Market participants should consider the possibility that the RBA might choose to wait until May to raise rates, but this is no longer our base case scenario.”March 11 (Kyodo News) – Japanese Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Ryosuke Akazawa stated on Wednesday during a parliamentary committee meeting, in response to questions from lawmakers, that the Japanese government has not ruled out the possibility of releasing national oil reserves "on its own initiative," rather than as part of a coordinated action. He added, "We will take all possible measures to ensure a stable energy supply." As of the end of December, Japans total oil reserves were sufficient to meet domestic consumption needs for 254 days, of which 146 days worth were held by the government, 101 days worth were held by the private sector, and the remainder were stored jointly with oil-producing countries.March 11th - This years government work report further clarified the need to "expand market access with a focus on the service sector," accelerating Beijings new round of opening up. In the first batch of pilot programs nationwide to expand opening up in areas such as value-added telecommunications and healthcare, Beijing became the first city in China to establish a foreign-invested enterprise specializing in human gene diagnosis and treatment technology. To date, more than 60 foreign-invested enterprises have participated in the pilot programs. Last year, Beijing saw over 2,400 new foreign-invested enterprises, a record high. According to the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce, this year will see the release of the 3.0 plan for the comprehensive demonstration zone for expanding opening up in the service sector, the implementation of actions to enhance the opening-up level of key industrial parks, the promotion of differentiated development of comprehensive bonded zones, and proactive alignment with high-standard international trade and economic rules, injecting new momentum into a higher level of opening up.Market news: The Saudi Foreign Minister spoke with the US Secretary of State to discuss Irans regional aggression.Piper Jaffray: Lowered its target price for Oracle (ORCL.N) from $240 to $210.

WTI crude oil climbs above $80.00 as NFP and recession fears contend with an OPEC+ surprise

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:36

 截屏2022-11-24 下午3.13.23.png

 

As energy markets celebrate the Good Friday holiday, WTI crude oil prices remain stable around $80.50, poised for a three-week uptrend. In doing so, black gold defends the week-beginning gains provided by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, headed by Russia, known as OPEC+, who announced a surprise output cut. However, concerns of a recession and a cautious disposition ahead of the March US employment report have recently posed a challenge to the energy benchmark.

 

The OPEC+ group startled the market with a voluntary output decline of nearly 1.66 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated, in response to the OPEC+ announcements, that the OPEC+ decision to reduce oil output risks aggravating a stressed market by driving up oil prices in response to inflationary pressures.

 

On the other hand, the US Dollar's weakness, bolstered by disappointing US data, supported the recovery of the black gold.

 

In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has a four-day losing streak and is currently trading around 102.000.

 

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 increased to 228K from 200K expected and an upwardly revised 246K the previous week. Notable is that the Challenger Job Cuts for the given month increased from 77,77K to 89,703K. Previously, US JOLTS Job Openings fell to a 19-month low in February, and March's ADP Employment Change figures of 145K also disappointed markets. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI for March decreased to 51.2 compared to 54.5 anticipated and 55.1 previously.

 

China's optimism for economic development and optimistic activity data from the dragon nation could also support the oil price. Pan Gongsheng, the director of China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), stated on Friday that Beijing "will defend itself against external financial market shocks and risks."

 

It should be noted, however, that recent calls for a recession pose a challenge to WTI crude oil purchasers, and more signs of economic decline should be monitored for direction, particularly when commodity prices trade near the key short-term resistance line.

 

In addition to the news about the recession, the March US employment report will be crucial to monitor for direction. Analysts anticipate a decline in headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to 240K from 311K previously, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 3.6%. However, the contradictory forecasts for Average Hourly Wages make the outcome even more intriguing.


Suggestion