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Conflict Details: 1. Russian Ministry of Defense: Russian forces occupied Komishuvakha in eastern Ukraine. 2. The Ukrainian military said it attacked oil refineries in Krasnodar and Syzran at night. 3. The Ukrainian Air Force said Russia launched 537 drones and 45 missiles during the nighttime attacks. 4. Russian Ministry of Defense: Russia attacked Ukrainian businesses, rocket and aviation facilities, and military airfields at night. 5. The regional governor stated that Russias attack on Zaporizhia, Ukraine, resulted in one death and at least 24 injuries. 6. Russian Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov: Russian forces are continuing their offensive along all fronts, and the task of establishing a buffer zone along the border between the Ukrainian Sumy and Kharkiv regions is progressing smoothly. 7. Russia and Ukraine are engaged in fierce battles over the key cities of Krasnodar (also known as Pokrovsk in Ukraine) and Konstantinovka in the Donetsk region. Other Developments: 1. Hungarian Foreign Minister: The European Commission has become a "Ukrainian Commission," representing the interests of Ukraine, not those of an EU member state. 2. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kallas stated that the return of frozen Russian assets to Russia is unthinkable unless Russia pays war reparations for Ukraine. 3. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Moscow exploited the lead-up to the summit to launch the attack and called for energy and banking sanctions. 4. Russian Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov stated that Russia controls 99.7% of Ukraines Luhansk region, 79% of the Donetsk region, 74% of the Zaporizhia region, and 76% of the Kherson region. 5. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kallas stated that EU countries have been asked to submit proposals for new sanctions against Russia next week.On August 31, officials of the Yemeni Houthi armed forces issued a statement saying that the group is ready to confront Israel after Israel launched an airstrike in Sanaa on Thursday, killing a senior official.On August 30th, local time, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto stated after the EU Foreign Ministers meeting in Copenhagen that the EU and most of its member states are not interested in achieving peace and will continue to provide funding and arm Ukraine. The European Commission is acting as a "Ukrainian Commission," representing Ukraines interests rather than those of EU member states.On August 30, Russia and Ukraine engaged in a fierce battle over the Donetsk regions key cities of Krasnaya Zvezda (known as Pokrovsk in Ukraine) and Konstantinovka on August 29. The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video on the 29th claiming Russian forces used Grad rockets to strike Ukrainian positions in the direction of Krasnaya Zvezda. The Russian news agency TASS also released a video claiming Russian forces launched strikes against Ukrainian targets near Konstantinovka.Kocher, the incoming ECB board member, said: It is crucial to avoid repeated swings in interest rate decisions.

WTI crude oil climbs above $80.00 as NFP and recession fears contend with an OPEC+ surprise

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:36

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As energy markets celebrate the Good Friday holiday, WTI crude oil prices remain stable around $80.50, poised for a three-week uptrend. In doing so, black gold defends the week-beginning gains provided by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, headed by Russia, known as OPEC+, who announced a surprise output cut. However, concerns of a recession and a cautious disposition ahead of the March US employment report have recently posed a challenge to the energy benchmark.

 

The OPEC+ group startled the market with a voluntary output decline of nearly 1.66 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated, in response to the OPEC+ announcements, that the OPEC+ decision to reduce oil output risks aggravating a stressed market by driving up oil prices in response to inflationary pressures.

 

On the other hand, the US Dollar's weakness, bolstered by disappointing US data, supported the recovery of the black gold.

 

In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has a four-day losing streak and is currently trading around 102.000.

 

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 increased to 228K from 200K expected and an upwardly revised 246K the previous week. Notable is that the Challenger Job Cuts for the given month increased from 77,77K to 89,703K. Previously, US JOLTS Job Openings fell to a 19-month low in February, and March's ADP Employment Change figures of 145K also disappointed markets. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI for March decreased to 51.2 compared to 54.5 anticipated and 55.1 previously.

 

China's optimism for economic development and optimistic activity data from the dragon nation could also support the oil price. Pan Gongsheng, the director of China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), stated on Friday that Beijing "will defend itself against external financial market shocks and risks."

 

It should be noted, however, that recent calls for a recession pose a challenge to WTI crude oil purchasers, and more signs of economic decline should be monitored for direction, particularly when commodity prices trade near the key short-term resistance line.

 

In addition to the news about the recession, the March US employment report will be crucial to monitor for direction. Analysts anticipate a decline in headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to 240K from 311K previously, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 3.6%. However, the contradictory forecasts for Average Hourly Wages make the outcome even more intriguing.


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