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On January 30th, it was reported that Bank of England Governor Bailey, who had been warning for months that British businesses might begin laying off staff, is now seeing this trend unfold within his own institution as the bank embarks on a comprehensive restructuring driven by cost-cutting measures. The plan begins with the central bank inviting staff to voluntarily leave. Currently, to achieve its target of cutting operating costs by 8% in the next fiscal year, the bank is considering a range of measures, from relocating staff to northern England to selling the sports club used for the Wimbledon tennis tournament. According to sources, under this far-reaching plan, the Bank of England will also restructure its research department, pilot the use of artificial intelligence, and scale back its work on climate change resilience. Furthermore, the bank plans to move its banking regulator out of its Mooreman offices in the City of London by 2028 and place a larger proportion of its staff outside the capital. Elsewhere, the Bank of England is piloting artificial intelligence in several business areas and has scaled back stress tests on the banking sector. Against the backdrop of other growing threats, the bank has shelved plans for regular reviews of climate risks.On January 30th, at a press conference held by the Ministry of Finance, Zheng Yong, Deputy Director of the Treasury Department of the Ministry of Finance, introduced that the national general public budget revenue in 2025 will be 21.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% compared with 2024. Among them, tax revenue increased by 0.8%, showing a steady upward trend throughout the year, reflecting the continued steady and progressive development of my countrys economy; non-tax revenue decreased by 11.3%, mainly due to the increased base caused by the one-time special revenue turned over by central units in 2024.On January 30th, Kristina Clifton, Senior Economist and Senior Currency Strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, stated that the US dollar did indeed appear to rise on this news, which she believes is because the market generally perceives Warsh to be slightly less dovish than another candidate, Hassett. Therefore, todays market fluctuations are merely minor fluctuations based on this, and Warsh may be better positioned to uphold the Feds independence than some other candidates. "We havent heard much from him yet, but he has made some comments that essentially express a desire for strict adherence to the Feds responsibility to control inflation. He has also served as a Fed governor and does not support quantitative easing, so this may again indicate that he is slightly more hawkish than some other potential candidates."Indonesian financial regulators say they will appoint a director of the Indonesian Stock Exchange as interim CEO next Monday.Germanys export price index fell 0.1% month-on-month in December, compared with 0.2% in the previous month.

WTI crude oil climbs above $80.00 as NFP and recession fears contend with an OPEC+ surprise

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:36

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As energy markets celebrate the Good Friday holiday, WTI crude oil prices remain stable around $80.50, poised for a three-week uptrend. In doing so, black gold defends the week-beginning gains provided by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, headed by Russia, known as OPEC+, who announced a surprise output cut. However, concerns of a recession and a cautious disposition ahead of the March US employment report have recently posed a challenge to the energy benchmark.

 

The OPEC+ group startled the market with a voluntary output decline of nearly 1.66 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated, in response to the OPEC+ announcements, that the OPEC+ decision to reduce oil output risks aggravating a stressed market by driving up oil prices in response to inflationary pressures.

 

On the other hand, the US Dollar's weakness, bolstered by disappointing US data, supported the recovery of the black gold.

 

In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has a four-day losing streak and is currently trading around 102.000.

 

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 increased to 228K from 200K expected and an upwardly revised 246K the previous week. Notable is that the Challenger Job Cuts for the given month increased from 77,77K to 89,703K. Previously, US JOLTS Job Openings fell to a 19-month low in February, and March's ADP Employment Change figures of 145K also disappointed markets. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI for March decreased to 51.2 compared to 54.5 anticipated and 55.1 previously.

 

China's optimism for economic development and optimistic activity data from the dragon nation could also support the oil price. Pan Gongsheng, the director of China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), stated on Friday that Beijing "will defend itself against external financial market shocks and risks."

 

It should be noted, however, that recent calls for a recession pose a challenge to WTI crude oil purchasers, and more signs of economic decline should be monitored for direction, particularly when commodity prices trade near the key short-term resistance line.

 

In addition to the news about the recession, the March US employment report will be crucial to monitor for direction. Analysts anticipate a decline in headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to 240K from 311K previously, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 3.6%. However, the contradictory forecasts for Average Hourly Wages make the outcome even more intriguing.


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