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New York gold futures fell below $5,000 per ounce, down 0.95% on the day.On February 16th, Han Wenxiu, Deputy Director of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission and Director of the Central Rural Work Leading Group, published an article in Qiushi entitled "Adhering to the Principle of Seeking Progress While Maintaining Stability, Improving Quality and Efficiency, and Striving for a Good Start to the 15th Five-Year Plan." The article emphasized the need to properly address risks in key areas and firmly safeguard the bottom line of safety. It called for efforts from both the supply and demand sides of the real estate market, implementing city-specific policies to control new supply, reduce inventory, and optimize supply, striving to stabilize the real estate market and orderly promote the construction of safe, comfortable, green, and smart "good houses," using the construction of a new real estate development model as a driving force to promote high-quality development of the real estate sector. The article also stressed the need to actively and orderly resolve local government debt risks, urging local governments to proactively resolve debt, strictly preventing false debt resolution, and prohibiting the illegal creation of new hidden debt. It called for optimizing debt restructuring and replacement methods, and using multiple measures to resolve the operational debt risks of local government financing platforms. Finally, it emphasized the need to steadily promote the resolution, reduction, and quality improvement of risks in local small and medium-sized financial institutions, enriching risk disposal resources and means, strengthening early intervention and disposal, and firmly safeguarding the bottom line of preventing systemic risks.On February 16th, Han Wenxiu, Deputy Director of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission and Director of the Central Rural Work Leading Group, published an article in Qiushi entitled "Adhering to Steady Progress and Improving Quality and Efficiency to Achieve a Good Start to the 15th Five-Year Plan." The article stated that it is necessary to unswervingly deepen reform and expand opening-up to stimulate the driving force and vitality of high-quality development. It is essential to continue to advance the construction of a unified national market, thoroughly rectify "involutionary" competition, and form a market order of high quality and fair pricing, and healthy competition. Continued efforts should be made in areas such as state-owned enterprise reform, improving the local tax system, market-oriented reform of factors of production, and comprehensive reform of capital market investment and financing to increase momentum and vitality through reform. It is also crucial to adhere to opening-up to the outside world and promote win-win cooperation in multiple fields. Steady progress should be made in institutional opening-up, and the independent opening-up of the service sector should be expanded in an orderly manner. Focus should be placed on improving the quality and efficiency of foreign trade, promoting the integration of trade and investment, and the integration of domestic and foreign trade, and promoting balanced development of imports and exports. The business environment should be continuously optimized, and the reform of the system and mechanism for promoting foreign investment should be deepened. The high-quality joint construction of the "Belt and Road" initiative should be promoted to go deeper and more practically, and the overseas comprehensive service system should be improved.On February 16th, Han Wenxiu, Deputy Director of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission and Director of the Central Rural Work Leading Group, published an article in Qiushi entitled "Adhering to the Principle of Seeking Progress While Maintaining Stability and Improving Quality and Efficiency to Achieve a Good Start to the 15th Five-Year Plan." The article mentioned the need to promote the deep integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation, and to develop new productive forces according to local conditions. Innovation is the primary driving force for development; we must adhere to innovation-driven development and accelerate the cultivation and expansion of new growth drivers. In the 2025 ranking of the worlds top 100 innovation clusters, Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Guangzhou, Beijing, and Shanghai-Suzhou ranked 1st, 4th, and 6th respectively. We must build international science and technology innovation centers in Beijing (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei), Shanghai (Yangtze River Delta), and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, formulate an integrated plan for the development of education, science and technology talent, and comprehensively enhance innovation capabilities. We must accelerate the pace of industrial upgrading, formulate an action plan for expanding and improving the service industry, and implement a new round of high-quality development action for key industrial chains. We must attach great importance to artificial intelligence as a key variable, deepen and expand "AI+", empower all industries in all aspects, and improve AI governance. We must strengthen the leading role of enterprises in innovation and promote the concentration of innovation resources such as funds, talent, and technology projects in enterprises.On February 16th, Han Wenxiu, Deputy Director of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission and Director of the Central Rural Work Leading Group, published an article in Qiushi entitled "Adhering to the Principle of Seeking Progress While Maintaining Stability, Improving Quality and Efficiency, and Striving for a Good Start to the 15th Five-Year Plan." The article mentioned the need to expand new space for domestic demand growth and optimize and strengthen the domestic economic cycle. By 2025, domestic demand will contribute more than two-thirds to economic growth, with consumption contributing 52%. It stressed the importance of adhering to domestic demand as the main driver and building a strong domestic market. Currently, my country is shifting from a consumption model primarily focused on goods to one that emphasizes both goods and services. It is necessary to adapt to changes in the consumption structure, expand the supply of high-quality goods and services, eliminate unreasonable restrictions on consumption, and unleash the potential of service consumption. There is still significant room for investment in my countrys new urbanization, technological innovation, industrial innovation, and improvement of peoples livelihoods. Focusing on improving peoples livelihoods and enhancing future growth potential, high-quality urban renewal should be promoted. Effectively stimulating private investment and stabilizing investment are crucial.

WTI crude oil climbs above $80.00 as NFP and recession fears contend with an OPEC+ surprise

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:36

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As energy markets celebrate the Good Friday holiday, WTI crude oil prices remain stable around $80.50, poised for a three-week uptrend. In doing so, black gold defends the week-beginning gains provided by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, headed by Russia, known as OPEC+, who announced a surprise output cut. However, concerns of a recession and a cautious disposition ahead of the March US employment report have recently posed a challenge to the energy benchmark.

 

The OPEC+ group startled the market with a voluntary output decline of nearly 1.66 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated, in response to the OPEC+ announcements, that the OPEC+ decision to reduce oil output risks aggravating a stressed market by driving up oil prices in response to inflationary pressures.

 

On the other hand, the US Dollar's weakness, bolstered by disappointing US data, supported the recovery of the black gold.

 

In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has a four-day losing streak and is currently trading around 102.000.

 

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 increased to 228K from 200K expected and an upwardly revised 246K the previous week. Notable is that the Challenger Job Cuts for the given month increased from 77,77K to 89,703K. Previously, US JOLTS Job Openings fell to a 19-month low in February, and March's ADP Employment Change figures of 145K also disappointed markets. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI for March decreased to 51.2 compared to 54.5 anticipated and 55.1 previously.

 

China's optimism for economic development and optimistic activity data from the dragon nation could also support the oil price. Pan Gongsheng, the director of China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), stated on Friday that Beijing "will defend itself against external financial market shocks and risks."

 

It should be noted, however, that recent calls for a recession pose a challenge to WTI crude oil purchasers, and more signs of economic decline should be monitored for direction, particularly when commodity prices trade near the key short-term resistance line.

 

In addition to the news about the recession, the March US employment report will be crucial to monitor for direction. Analysts anticipate a decline in headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to 240K from 311K previously, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 3.6%. However, the contradictory forecasts for Average Hourly Wages make the outcome even more intriguing.