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On July 13, Aravind Srinivas, CEO of US AI search startup Perplexity, said on social media that based on the good performance of the Kimi K2 model, the company may use K2 for post-training in the future. DeepSeek R1 was also used by Perplexity for model training. K2 is a trillion-parameter open source model recently released by Kimi, which emphasizes code capabilities and general agent task capabilities.July 13, analysts said that financial markets, which have become increasingly insensitive to U.S. tariff threats, will face a test when they open on Monday after Trump announced over the weekend that he would impose 30% tariffs on the European Union and Mexico from August 1. Trump has recently stepped up trade measures, promising to impose more tariffs on everything from Canada to Brazil to Algeria and inviting trading partners to further negotiations. Despite warnings from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and others not to take it lightly, investors have so far reacted as if they were counting on the U.S. president to back down again because they have seen the previous 180-degree turn. Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, said: "Investors should not just treat Trumps threat of a 30% tariff on EU goods as a bluff. This tariff level is punitive, but it may hurt the EU more than the United States, so the clock is counting down."On July 13, French President Emmanuel Macron posted on social media on the 12th that France and the European Commission strongly opposed the US announcement that day to impose a 30% tariff on EU exports from August 1. Macron wrote that in the context of EU unity, the European Commission should demonstrate the EUs determination to defend its own interests. If Europe and the United States cannot reach an agreement before August 1, the EU should mobilize all tools, including anti-coercion mechanisms, to speed up the preparation of "credible countermeasures." France supports the European Commission and the United States to step up negotiations in order to reach an agreement acceptable to both sides before August 1.European Council President: The EU remains fully supportive of efforts to reach a fair agreement with the United States.July 12, Mathieu Savary, chief European strategist at BCA RESEARCH: Trumps strategy is to make outrageous demands, then let them fall through, and then once again try to win some last-minute concessions and then reach a trade deal. We remember a framework during Trumps first presidency, and thats whats happening now. It doesnt matter what is said now; what matters is where we will land. It is expected that the EU will eventually "have to accept a 10% tariff, but this is something the EU can actually deal with.

WTI crude oil climbs above $80.00 as NFP and recession fears contend with an OPEC+ surprise

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:36

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As energy markets celebrate the Good Friday holiday, WTI crude oil prices remain stable around $80.50, poised for a three-week uptrend. In doing so, black gold defends the week-beginning gains provided by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, headed by Russia, known as OPEC+, who announced a surprise output cut. However, concerns of a recession and a cautious disposition ahead of the March US employment report have recently posed a challenge to the energy benchmark.

 

The OPEC+ group startled the market with a voluntary output decline of nearly 1.66 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated, in response to the OPEC+ announcements, that the OPEC+ decision to reduce oil output risks aggravating a stressed market by driving up oil prices in response to inflationary pressures.

 

On the other hand, the US Dollar's weakness, bolstered by disappointing US data, supported the recovery of the black gold.

 

In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has a four-day losing streak and is currently trading around 102.000.

 

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 increased to 228K from 200K expected and an upwardly revised 246K the previous week. Notable is that the Challenger Job Cuts for the given month increased from 77,77K to 89,703K. Previously, US JOLTS Job Openings fell to a 19-month low in February, and March's ADP Employment Change figures of 145K also disappointed markets. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI for March decreased to 51.2 compared to 54.5 anticipated and 55.1 previously.

 

China's optimism for economic development and optimistic activity data from the dragon nation could also support the oil price. Pan Gongsheng, the director of China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), stated on Friday that Beijing "will defend itself against external financial market shocks and risks."

 

It should be noted, however, that recent calls for a recession pose a challenge to WTI crude oil purchasers, and more signs of economic decline should be monitored for direction, particularly when commodity prices trade near the key short-term resistance line.

 

In addition to the news about the recession, the March US employment report will be crucial to monitor for direction. Analysts anticipate a decline in headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to 240K from 311K previously, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 3.6%. However, the contradictory forecasts for Average Hourly Wages make the outcome even more intriguing.


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