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The yield on Japans five-year government bonds rose 3 basis points to 1.715%.The yield on Japans two-year government bonds rose 1.5 basis points to 1.29%.On February 9th, Nan Hua Futures reported that a research report indicated the fundamentals for a platinum-palladium bull market remain intact in the medium to long term. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will maintain its loose monetary policy stance in the first half of 2026, and increased central bank gold purchases, safe-haven demand, and investment demand will continue to push precious metal prices higher. While the nomination of Walsh, a supply-side economist, as Fed Chair has raised concerns about a potential breakdown in the support logic for precious metals (as Fed balance sheet reduction boosts dollar credibility), the US lacks the conditions for producing another "Volcker" before a disruptive breakthrough in AI technology. Furthermore, there is a conflict between "Trumps urgent need to lower medium- and long-term interest rates under midterm election pressure" and "balance sheet reduction pushing up term premiums and driving up long-term interest rates." Although the Fed expanded its balance sheet at the end of December last year, resulting in marginal improvement in liquidity, narrow reserves remain low, and dollar liquidity is tighter than it has been since the pandemic. Under these multiple pressures, Walshs nomination has limited impact, and a trend of liquidity expansion is highly probable. Given the high volatility in platinum and palladium, position control is crucial. Due to the discontinuity between domestic and international trading sessions, the opening price of platinum and palladium often references the overnight trading session in other countries. Investors should pay attention to international market prices and be wary of opening gaps. (This content and opinion are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.)The Ministry of Commerce will hold a press conference at 3:00 p.m. on Thursday, February 12, 2026, where a spokesperson will introduce the relevant situation of key work in the commercial field recently and answer questions from reporters.On February 9th, reports surfaced that Samsung Electronics was about to begin mass production of HBM4 memory chips used to build artificial intelligence infrastructure, sending the companys stock price up 6.4%. According to Yonhap News Agency, the South Korean tech giant plans to ship the semiconductor to Nvidia, a leader in AI accelerators, as early as the third week of February. Industry sources say these HBM chips will power the US companys upcoming Vera Rubin AI accelerator. Samsungs progress in high-bandwidth memory development indicates it is closing the gap with domestic competitors. As of last Fridays close, Samsungs stock price had risen more than 30% this year, as rising memory chip prices benefited all major players in the industry. Samsung may also have benefited from AI-related gains in the US stock market linked to data center construction. The four largest hyperscale companies plans to spend approximately $650 billion this year also contributed to Nvidias stock price rising nearly 8% last Friday.

WTI crude oil climbs above $80.00 as NFP and recession fears contend with an OPEC+ surprise

Daniel Rogers

Apr 07, 2023 11:36

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As energy markets celebrate the Good Friday holiday, WTI crude oil prices remain stable around $80.50, poised for a three-week uptrend. In doing so, black gold defends the week-beginning gains provided by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, headed by Russia, known as OPEC+, who announced a surprise output cut. However, concerns of a recession and a cautious disposition ahead of the March US employment report have recently posed a challenge to the energy benchmark.

 

The OPEC+ group startled the market with a voluntary output decline of nearly 1.66 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated, in response to the OPEC+ announcements, that the OPEC+ decision to reduce oil output risks aggravating a stressed market by driving up oil prices in response to inflationary pressures.

 

On the other hand, the US Dollar's weakness, bolstered by disappointing US data, supported the recovery of the black gold.

 

In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has a four-day losing streak and is currently trading around 102.000.

 

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 31 increased to 228K from 200K expected and an upwardly revised 246K the previous week. Notable is that the Challenger Job Cuts for the given month increased from 77,77K to 89,703K. Previously, US JOLTS Job Openings fell to a 19-month low in February, and March's ADP Employment Change figures of 145K also disappointed markets. In addition, the US ISM Services PMI for March decreased to 51.2 compared to 54.5 anticipated and 55.1 previously.

 

China's optimism for economic development and optimistic activity data from the dragon nation could also support the oil price. Pan Gongsheng, the director of China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), stated on Friday that Beijing "will defend itself against external financial market shocks and risks."

 

It should be noted, however, that recent calls for a recession pose a challenge to WTI crude oil purchasers, and more signs of economic decline should be monitored for direction, particularly when commodity prices trade near the key short-term resistance line.

 

In addition to the news about the recession, the March US employment report will be crucial to monitor for direction. Analysts anticipate a decline in headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to 240K from 311K previously, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 3.6%. However, the contradictory forecasts for Average Hourly Wages make the outcome even more intriguing.


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