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On September 5th, US President Trump called the more than six-month-long US-Iran conflict "insignificant" and said he would not describe it as a major war. Trump stated on Friday that it was a "military conflict," but "not a big deal for us," and that there was no ongoing fighting between the two sides. Responding to Vice President Vances earlier statement that it "shouldnt be called a war," Trump said, "In many places, it is," and indicated that the US was currently only conducting intermittent strikes. Trump again compared the 18 US military personnel killed in the conflict to the Vietnam War and the Afghanistan War, saying, "Losing even one person is too much," but those two wars resulted in tens of thousands of US military deaths. He also stated that the US had achieved significant progress on the Iran issue. Polls show that the American public has a low approval rating for Trumps handling of the Iran conflict. The conflict has pushed up energy prices, putting pressure on Republicans to maintain control of Congress in the November midterm elections. Previous comments by Trump administration officials downplaying the impact of the conflict have also drawn criticism from Democrats.According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of the week ending September 1, net short positions in the Swiss franc were 22,876 contracts. Net short positions in the British pound were 49,575 contracts. Net short positions in the euro were 24,925 contracts. Net short positions in the Japanese yen were 92,227 contracts.September 5th - According to the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. Department of Justices antitrust division was ordered this week to suspend all cooperation with the Canadian government, the latest development in the escalating trade dispute between the two countries. Linda Marshall, head of international affairs at the Justice Departments antitrust division, requested officials in an email to cease cooperation with Canada on cases and policy issues, but did not specify the reasons. The report stated that Justice Department officials indicated such directives are rare, as the U.S. typically cooperates with competition regulators in other countries, even if the governments are not closely aligned. The U.S. and Canadian antitrust agencies have a long history of cooperation, covering areas such as auto parts price manipulation, air freight investigations, and mergers and acquisitions in the technology and aerospace industries. This suspension of cooperation comes as the U.S.-Canada trade dispute continues to escalate. After trade negotiations broke down last month, the Trump administration imposed a 50% tariff on $20 billion worth of Canadian goods, and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney subsequently imposed similar tariffs on some U.S. goods. Neither the U.S. Department of Justice nor the White House has commented on this.September 5th - On September 4th local time, US President Trump stated that US special envoys Witkov and Kushner would submit a plan to Russia to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Previously, sources indicated that Witkov and Kushner planned to visit Russia and Ukraine in the near future.Note: The signing ceremony for President Trumps executive order at the White House has concluded.

The USD/JPY Currency Pair Swings in a 60-Pip Range as Bulls Reclaim 124.00 on a Positive Note

Drake Hampton

Apr 08, 2022 10:07

Tips

  • The USD/JPY is up 1.26 percent this week.

  • The greenback strengthens as investors shrug off geopolitical concerns.

  • Forecast for the USD/JPY Exchange Rate: As bulls, we are leaning upward and are aiming for the YTD high of 125.10.

 

As the Asian Pacific session opens, USD/JPY pair extends its weekly gains on broad US dollar strength. The USD/JPY remains strong at 124.15, after trading in a tight 55-pip range over the last three days as the Eastern Europe conflict between Russia and Ukraine enters its sixth day.

 

Asian market futures continue to trade higher, despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine confrontation. Contrary to the positive tone of Asian market futures, which point to a stronger open, US equities concluded the afternoon in a divided mood. Investors shrugged aside Russia-Ukraine tensions on Thursday, despite Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's complaint that Ukraine's new draft accord submitted to Russia does not meet Russia's demands on Crimea and Donbas. Meanwhile, recent reports indicate that Russia is regrouping soldiers in preparation for another offensive aimed at reclaiming Ukraine's eastern territories, Donetsk and Luhansk.

 

The North American session on Thursday featured Fed speakers, lead by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who stated that the Fed is still behind the curve in its efforts to contain inflation. Bullard said that by the second half of the year, he would like to see the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) at 3.5 percent.

 

Later that day, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans indicated that "we (the Fed) will reach neutral by the end of this year or early next."

 

On the Japanese docket, the Current Account for February and Consumer Confidence for March would be the headline economic data releases. On the US front, Wholesale Inventories for February will be released on a monthly basis. 

USD/JPY Forecast: Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY continues bullish, but the average daily range (ADR) has been 55 pips during the last three days. Daily moving averages (DMAs) below the spot price further reinforce the uptrend, and it's worth noting that the 100-DMA at 109.48 is on the verge of crossing over the 200-DMA at 109.60.

 

With that considered, the first resistance level for the USD/JPY would be 124.00. If the latter is breached, the March 29 daily high of 124.30 will be revealed, followed by the year-to-date high of 125.10.


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