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August 28th - According to the Associated Press, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh said on Friday that inflation remains too high. He hinted that the central bank may need to raise interest rates in the coming months to reduce inflation. This statement more clearly reflects his view on the economic situation than his previous remarks. In a prepared speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Warsh acknowledged that recent inflation data indicated a slowdown in inflation, but "these data do not suggest a significant improvement in the overall trend." "We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving toward the target, or there is still a lot of work to be done." On Friday, Warsh remained skeptical of forward guidance and even declined to reveal his overall thinking on interest rate policy. However, he did point out that current interest rate levels are not hindering economic activity.On August 28th, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh stated on Friday that if policymakers are not confident that inflation is falling back to 2% "at a clear and sufficiently fast pace," the Fed "still has work to do." This suggests that if price pressures do not improve, the Fed may raise interest rates next. Warsh explicitly stated that he still adheres to the Feds long-standing policy path of managing inflation by adjusting interest rates. This significantly increases the likelihood of a further rate hike by the Fed, which could potentially create a rift with President Trump, who has long sought rate cuts. This statement essentially eliminates the ambiguity previously left. At a press conference at the end of July, Warsh declined to comment extensively on whether a rate hike was needed to address the sharp rise in inflation this year, which has been above the Feds target for more than five consecutive years.The main liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) contract rose by 2.00% during the day, currently trading at 5883.00 yuan/ton.New York gold futures fell below $4,600 per ounce, down 1.21% on the day.On August 28th, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh warned that inflation has not shown a meaningful slowdown, stating that policymakers must be confident that inflation is moving in the right direction, otherwise the central bank "has more work to do." Warsh reiterated that the Fed will bring the inflation rate back to its 2% target. He stated that this is a clear and fixed target. Warsh said, "My standard is that we must be confident that underlying inflation is moving toward our target, and the pace must be clear enough and fast enough. Otherwise, we have more work to do. Thats our responsibility." Warsh also stated that current financial conditions are not restrictive, and interest rates are the Feds "primary tool" for fulfilling its mandate.

The USD/JPY Currency Pair Swings in a 60-Pip Range as Bulls Reclaim 124.00 on a Positive Note

Drake Hampton

Apr 08, 2022 10:07

Tips

  • The USD/JPY is up 1.26 percent this week.

  • The greenback strengthens as investors shrug off geopolitical concerns.

  • Forecast for the USD/JPY Exchange Rate: As bulls, we are leaning upward and are aiming for the YTD high of 125.10.

 

As the Asian Pacific session opens, USD/JPY pair extends its weekly gains on broad US dollar strength. The USD/JPY remains strong at 124.15, after trading in a tight 55-pip range over the last three days as the Eastern Europe conflict between Russia and Ukraine enters its sixth day.

 

Asian market futures continue to trade higher, despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine confrontation. Contrary to the positive tone of Asian market futures, which point to a stronger open, US equities concluded the afternoon in a divided mood. Investors shrugged aside Russia-Ukraine tensions on Thursday, despite Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's complaint that Ukraine's new draft accord submitted to Russia does not meet Russia's demands on Crimea and Donbas. Meanwhile, recent reports indicate that Russia is regrouping soldiers in preparation for another offensive aimed at reclaiming Ukraine's eastern territories, Donetsk and Luhansk.

 

The North American session on Thursday featured Fed speakers, lead by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who stated that the Fed is still behind the curve in its efforts to contain inflation. Bullard said that by the second half of the year, he would like to see the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) at 3.5 percent.

 

Later that day, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans indicated that "we (the Fed) will reach neutral by the end of this year or early next."

 

On the Japanese docket, the Current Account for February and Consumer Confidence for March would be the headline economic data releases. On the US front, Wholesale Inventories for February will be released on a monthly basis. 

USD/JPY Forecast: Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY continues bullish, but the average daily range (ADR) has been 55 pips during the last three days. Daily moving averages (DMAs) below the spot price further reinforce the uptrend, and it's worth noting that the 100-DMA at 109.48 is on the verge of crossing over the 200-DMA at 109.60.

 

With that considered, the first resistance level for the USD/JPY would be 124.00. If the latter is breached, the March 29 daily high of 124.30 will be revealed, followed by the year-to-date high of 125.10.


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