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The Bank of Japan will release a summary of the opinions of the deliberation committee members at its March monetary policy meeting in ten minutes.March 30th - According to the Italian newspaper *La Stampa*, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Bank of France Governor Villeroy stated in an interview that the ECB is prepared to take action to curb inflation expectations; however, it is still too early to bet on the timing of an interest rate hike. Villeroy pointed out that the war with Iran could trigger a negative supply shock, dragging down economic growth and accelerating the rise in consumer prices. He emphasized that recent news related to the conflict "has not sent a positive signal." In an interview published on Monday, he stated, "The ECB cannot control oil prices, but it has the responsibility and the ability to anchor household and business inflation expectations to our 2% medium-term inflation target. If necessary, we are prepared to act in this direction."ECB Governing Council member Villeroy: The ECB is ready to act, but it is too early to discuss the date when the ECB may raise interest rates.March 30th - According to CBS News, Jim Sims, the Democratic chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, accused President Trump of making "outright lies" about negotiations with Iran last week amid market turmoil and the ongoing war. "Last Sunday, he realized there was a serious financial crisis in the markets, so he made that up," Sims said in a program interview. Sims added, "The Iranians now realize they have the upper hand. Gasoline prices have risen by more than $1 a gallon. They realize, My God, we have huge leverage."Both WTI and Brent crude oil opened about 1% higher on Monday, currently trading at $102.57 per barrel and $107.15 per barrel, respectively.

The USD/JPY Currency Pair Swings in a 60-Pip Range as Bulls Reclaim 124.00 on a Positive Note

Drake Hampton

Apr 08, 2022 10:07

Tips

  • The USD/JPY is up 1.26 percent this week.

  • The greenback strengthens as investors shrug off geopolitical concerns.

  • Forecast for the USD/JPY Exchange Rate: As bulls, we are leaning upward and are aiming for the YTD high of 125.10.

 

As the Asian Pacific session opens, USD/JPY pair extends its weekly gains on broad US dollar strength. The USD/JPY remains strong at 124.15, after trading in a tight 55-pip range over the last three days as the Eastern Europe conflict between Russia and Ukraine enters its sixth day.

 

Asian market futures continue to trade higher, despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine confrontation. Contrary to the positive tone of Asian market futures, which point to a stronger open, US equities concluded the afternoon in a divided mood. Investors shrugged aside Russia-Ukraine tensions on Thursday, despite Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's complaint that Ukraine's new draft accord submitted to Russia does not meet Russia's demands on Crimea and Donbas. Meanwhile, recent reports indicate that Russia is regrouping soldiers in preparation for another offensive aimed at reclaiming Ukraine's eastern territories, Donetsk and Luhansk.

 

The North American session on Thursday featured Fed speakers, lead by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who stated that the Fed is still behind the curve in its efforts to contain inflation. Bullard said that by the second half of the year, he would like to see the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) at 3.5 percent.

 

Later that day, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans indicated that "we (the Fed) will reach neutral by the end of this year or early next."

 

On the Japanese docket, the Current Account for February and Consumer Confidence for March would be the headline economic data releases. On the US front, Wholesale Inventories for February will be released on a monthly basis. 

USD/JPY Forecast: Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY continues bullish, but the average daily range (ADR) has been 55 pips during the last three days. Daily moving averages (DMAs) below the spot price further reinforce the uptrend, and it's worth noting that the 100-DMA at 109.48 is on the verge of crossing over the 200-DMA at 109.60.

 

With that considered, the first resistance level for the USD/JPY would be 124.00. If the latter is breached, the March 29 daily high of 124.30 will be revealed, followed by the year-to-date high of 125.10.


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