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On August 21st, the A50 index surged in early trading on Friday, and major A-share indices also rebounded collectively, with AI-related sectors such as CPO and liquid cooling showing significant strength. Meanwhile, the South Korean stock index reversed its losses and rose sharply. The Japanese stock market also saw its losses narrow significantly. Three major positive factors emerged from overseas markets. First, US Treasury yields, which had been a concern for the market, initially fell across the board after the Asian markets opened, and the change in expectations in the US Treasury market opened Pandoras box for a weak dollar, which is beneficial for equity valuations. Second, the Korea Exchange activated the Sidecar mechanism, suspending programmatic selling on KOSDAQ. Finally, the storage industry also received a major boost. Micron Technology stated that artificial intelligence has fundamentally changed the cyclical nature of the storage industry, which has historically been trapped in cycles of boom and bust.On August 21, Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd.s Huaxia Branch filed for bankruptcy liquidation against Evergrande Real Estate Group Co., Ltd., citing the companys inability to repay its debts and insufficient assets to cover all liabilities. The Guangzhou Intermediate Peoples Court of Guangdong Province, after review, determined that the application met the requirements of Article 2, Paragraph 1 of the "Enterprise Bankruptcy Law of the Peoples Republic of China" and ruled on August 21, 2026, to accept the bankruptcy liquidation application filed by Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd.s Huaxia Branch against Evergrande Real Estate Group Co., Ltd.On August 21, according to the Financial Times, sources revealed that Ukraine is seeking approval to use drones equipped with the Starlink system to strike ballistic missile silos within 200 kilometers of Russian territory due to a severe shortage of air defense interceptors in Kyiv. This move requires approval from Elon Musk, whose stance on Ukraine and its use of his satellite internet service has been inconsistent. Another potential obstacle is the recent dismissal of Mikhailova Fedorov, the former Defense Minister who directly communicated with Musk in Kyiv. Previously, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy had repeatedly requested more interceptor missiles from US President Trump and other partners. Military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady stated that even under the most ideal circumstances, Ukraine is unlikely to acquire a sufficient number of interceptor missiles in time to maintain its current air defense strategy. He described Ukraines current strategy as "essentially an attempt to shoot down incoming ballistic missiles."According to the Financial Times, Ukraine is seeking approval to use Starlink-equipped drones to strike ballistic missile launchers within a range of up to 200 kilometers inside Russia.On August 21, the Shanghai Municipal Government held a press conference to interpret the "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Lingang New Area of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone." Tang Hao, Deputy Director of the Lingang New Area Management Committee, stated that the plan aims to achieve 100 billion yuan in bonded maintenance import and export volume and 50 billion US dollars in offshore entrepot trade volume by the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan period. It will also pioneer offshore financial pilot programs, iterate and expand the negative list and operational guidelines for cross-border data, build a global shipping hub, and create an international shipping green energy bunkering center.

The USD/JPY Currency Pair Swings in a 60-Pip Range as Bulls Reclaim 124.00 on a Positive Note

Drake Hampton

Apr 08, 2022 10:07

Tips

  • The USD/JPY is up 1.26 percent this week.

  • The greenback strengthens as investors shrug off geopolitical concerns.

  • Forecast for the USD/JPY Exchange Rate: As bulls, we are leaning upward and are aiming for the YTD high of 125.10.

 

As the Asian Pacific session opens, USD/JPY pair extends its weekly gains on broad US dollar strength. The USD/JPY remains strong at 124.15, after trading in a tight 55-pip range over the last three days as the Eastern Europe conflict between Russia and Ukraine enters its sixth day.

 

Asian market futures continue to trade higher, despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine confrontation. Contrary to the positive tone of Asian market futures, which point to a stronger open, US equities concluded the afternoon in a divided mood. Investors shrugged aside Russia-Ukraine tensions on Thursday, despite Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's complaint that Ukraine's new draft accord submitted to Russia does not meet Russia's demands on Crimea and Donbas. Meanwhile, recent reports indicate that Russia is regrouping soldiers in preparation for another offensive aimed at reclaiming Ukraine's eastern territories, Donetsk and Luhansk.

 

The North American session on Thursday featured Fed speakers, lead by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who stated that the Fed is still behind the curve in its efforts to contain inflation. Bullard said that by the second half of the year, he would like to see the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) at 3.5 percent.

 

Later that day, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans indicated that "we (the Fed) will reach neutral by the end of this year or early next."

 

On the Japanese docket, the Current Account for February and Consumer Confidence for March would be the headline economic data releases. On the US front, Wholesale Inventories for February will be released on a monthly basis. 

USD/JPY Forecast: Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY continues bullish, but the average daily range (ADR) has been 55 pips during the last three days. Daily moving averages (DMAs) below the spot price further reinforce the uptrend, and it's worth noting that the 100-DMA at 109.48 is on the verge of crossing over the 200-DMA at 109.60.

 

With that considered, the first resistance level for the USD/JPY would be 124.00. If the latter is breached, the March 29 daily high of 124.30 will be revealed, followed by the year-to-date high of 125.10.


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