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According to the Financial Times: As Brexit affects Gibraltar, starting this week, British citizens flying from the UK to Gibraltar will have to go through the EUs controversial new electronic border system.July 14th - According to foreign media reports, ahead of escalating tensions and the US announcement of a renewed blockade of Iranian ports, Iran has begun secretly transporting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz in recent days. Ship tracking data shows that six Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) sanctioned by the US transited the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman in the past week, with their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders turned off. These six tankers can collectively carry 12 million barrels of crude oil. These vessels, along with other ships linked to Iran, completed their voyages after the US revoked its temporary permit for Iranian crude oil sales on July 7th. In addition to the aforementioned six Iranian VLCCs, numerous other ships sanctioned by the US and linked to Tehran have also departed the Strait of Hormuz since July 7th. These vessels are part of the 57 million barrels of crude oil that Iran successfully exported between two rounds of US naval blockades.On July 14th, futures market news reported that yesterday, as tensions escalated, including the US continuing its attacks on Iran and reimposing a blockade on Iranian oil exports, oil prices surged. Currently, WTI crude oil has rebounded to around $80 per barrel, and Brent crude has climbed back above $85 per barrel, showing significant gains. Zhuochuang Information predicts that continued attention will be paid to the consequences of the renewed US-Iran attacks. Against the backdrop of heightened tensions, crude oil prices are generally expected to remain strong, but the possibility of Trump resuming peace talks also needs to be monitored. If talks are initiated, oil prices will likely fall rapidly. Therefore, overall volatility is expected to be high.According to the Jordanian state news agency, Jordan intercepted and shot down four missiles that entered Jordanian airspace from Iranian territory.July 14th - A new type of leveraged ETF tracking major South Korean chip stocks is experiencing a sharp decline, posing a significant risk of substantial losses for South Korean retail investors who prefer to leverage such instruments for amplified returns. According to data compiled by foreign media, since their listing at the end of May, the prices of more than ten leveraged ETFs tracking Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have nearly halved. Among them, the largest, the KODEX SK Hynix Single Stock Leveraged ETF with $3.4 billion in assets under management, has fallen by approximately 45% since its listing and more than 60% from its June high. Jung In Yun, CEO of Fibonacci Asset Management, stated, "The sharp decline in these leveraged ETFs is particularly devastating for retail investors, as many seem to view them as long-term investments rather than short-term trading tools. These massive losses could weaken retail investors willingness and ability to buy semiconductor stocks, making the markets future recovery more reliant on inflows of foreign institutional funds."

The USD/JPY Currency Pair Swings in a 60-Pip Range as Bulls Reclaim 124.00 on a Positive Note

Drake Hampton

Apr 08, 2022 10:07

Tips

  • The USD/JPY is up 1.26 percent this week.

  • The greenback strengthens as investors shrug off geopolitical concerns.

  • Forecast for the USD/JPY Exchange Rate: As bulls, we are leaning upward and are aiming for the YTD high of 125.10.

 

As the Asian Pacific session opens, USD/JPY pair extends its weekly gains on broad US dollar strength. The USD/JPY remains strong at 124.15, after trading in a tight 55-pip range over the last three days as the Eastern Europe conflict between Russia and Ukraine enters its sixth day.

 

Asian market futures continue to trade higher, despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine confrontation. Contrary to the positive tone of Asian market futures, which point to a stronger open, US equities concluded the afternoon in a divided mood. Investors shrugged aside Russia-Ukraine tensions on Thursday, despite Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's complaint that Ukraine's new draft accord submitted to Russia does not meet Russia's demands on Crimea and Donbas. Meanwhile, recent reports indicate that Russia is regrouping soldiers in preparation for another offensive aimed at reclaiming Ukraine's eastern territories, Donetsk and Luhansk.

 

The North American session on Thursday featured Fed speakers, lead by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who stated that the Fed is still behind the curve in its efforts to contain inflation. Bullard said that by the second half of the year, he would like to see the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) at 3.5 percent.

 

Later that day, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans indicated that "we (the Fed) will reach neutral by the end of this year or early next."

 

On the Japanese docket, the Current Account for February and Consumer Confidence for March would be the headline economic data releases. On the US front, Wholesale Inventories for February will be released on a monthly basis. 

USD/JPY Forecast: Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY continues bullish, but the average daily range (ADR) has been 55 pips during the last three days. Daily moving averages (DMAs) below the spot price further reinforce the uptrend, and it's worth noting that the 100-DMA at 109.48 is on the verge of crossing over the 200-DMA at 109.60.

 

With that considered, the first resistance level for the USD/JPY would be 124.00. If the latter is breached, the March 29 daily high of 124.30 will be revealed, followed by the year-to-date high of 125.10.


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