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On June 7th, US President Trump stated that it would be a mistake for Federal Reserve policymakers to raise interest rates after the US jobs data significantly exceeded expectations. He also insisted that he did not want to influence Kevin Warsh before his first Fed meeting. In an interview with NBC, Trump said, "These days, whenever the economic data is good, the market goes down because everyone thinks the Fed will raise rates. But theres absolutely no reason to raise rates." Trumps remarks further increased the economic and political pressure on Warsh. Trump stated, "Raising the benchmark interest rate is the wrong thing to do. In fact, we should lower rates." Trump added, "I work with Kevin now. I have a lot of respect for him, but my view is that when a countrys economy is doing well, it shouldnt be punished immediately by raising interest rates." He further added, "We have a debt problem, and a lot of other things to deal with, a lot of plans to move forward. I want to further increase defense spending."June 7th - According to a communique released after Sundays OPEC meeting, the seven OPEC+ member countries (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Algeria, and Oman) decided to raise their daily crude oil production ceiling by 188,000 barrels starting in July. The communique stated that the countries reiterated the importance of a cautious approach and will retain full flexibility to increase, suspend, or reverse voluntary production cuts. The seven countries will meet again on July 5th.US President Trump: There is no reason to raise interest rates (regarding the Federal Reserve).1. Monday: ① Data: Japans April trade balance; Switzerlands May consumer confidence index; Eurozones June Sentix investor confidence index. ② Holiday: Australia closed for the day. 2. Tuesday: ① Data: Chinas May trade balance; Germanys April seasonally adjusted trade balance and industrial production month-on-month; US April trade balance, NFIB small business confidence index, ADP employment change week-on-week, May existing home sales report, and April wholesale sales month-on-month report. ② Event: Apples WWDC developer conference, until June 13. 3. Wednesday: ① Data: US API and EIA crude oil inventory weekly report, May CPI; Chinas May CPI, PPI, M2 and other financial data (time to be determined). ② Event: EIA releases monthly short-term energy outlook report; Bank of Canada interest rate decision, press conference by the governor and senior deputy governor. ③ Earnings report: Oracle. 4. Thursday: ① Data: US initial jobless claims, May PPI, and EIA natural gas storage weekly report. ② Events: US 10-year Treasury auction; ECB interest rate decision and ECB presidents press conference; OPEC monthly report. 5. Friday: ① Data: German and French May CPI; UK April three-month GDP month-on-month rate, manufacturing output month-on-month rate, seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, industrial production month-on-month rate; US June one-year inflation rate expectation preliminary value, University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary value. ② Events: Huawei Developer Conference, SpaceX listing on Nasdaq, World Cup officially starts. 6. Saturday: ① Data: US total number of oil rigs for the week ending June 12.According to Saudi media Alhadath, Israel notified the United States in advance before attacking the southern suburbs of Beirut.

USD/CHF Consolidates in a Range of 0.9320-0.9350 on Expectations of Rate Reversion to Neutral

Drake Hampton

Apr 08, 2022 09:57

Tips

  • USD/CHF remained stuck around 0.9350 despite a big increase in US Treasury yields.

  • The DXY is aiming for 100.00 as traders increase their expectations for an aggressive rate hike.

  • Russia resigns from the United Nations Human Rights Council.

 

Since Thursday, the USD/CHF pair has been swinging within a narrow band of 0.9318-0.9348 as Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers have begun prescribing a reversion to neutral rates from ultra-loose monetary policy postures.

 

After commenting on the amount to which the Fed will raise interest rates in future monetary policies, members of the Fed's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have changed their focus to calling for a return to neutral policy. The ultra-loose monetary policies and helicopter money used to boost growth following the Covid-19 outbreak have served their purpose, and it would be preferable to return to normal rates and a self-sufficient economy. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated on Thursday that while it is quite acceptable for the Fed to move policy closer to neutral, it should go cautiously, according to Reuters.

 

On the Russia-Ukraine front, Russia is expelled from the United Nations (UN) Human Rights Council after its members voted against the Kremlin's war crimes in Bucha, Ukraine. Additionally, US lawmakers have decided to prohibit Moscow from importing oil, gas, and coal. Additionally, the former has opted to revoke its 'Most Favored Nation' trade designation, resulting in higher tariffs for Moscow.

 

Meanwhile, the US dollar index is heading towards the enchanted level of 100.00, fueled by forecasts for better US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data next week. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note has recaptured a three-year high of 2.66 percent as rate rise worries resurface.

USD/CHF

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