EUR/USD
1.16587
0.727%
Gold
4484.94
3.478%
Oil
84.875
0.673%
USD/JPY
158.586
-0.641%
GBP/USD
1.35901
0.435%
GBP/JPY
215.520
-0.203%
Real-time News
The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting in ten minutes.Market news: The United States plans to halve tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum in a trade agreement.On August 20th, US President Trump told reporters at the White House on the 19th that negotiations with Iran might resume "at some point," but Iran must completely abandon its nuclear weapons. When asked if the US would return to negotiations, Trump said, "Maybe at some point. But right now, I think the situation is very good." He then added, "The logic is simple, they have to completely give it up," and "Iran must never have nuclear weapons." Trump reiterated that the US "owns" and "completely controls" the Strait of Hormuz, and stated that Irans "occasionally launching drones does cause trouble."On August 20, Iraqi Prime Minister Zaidi, President Amidi, and Speaker of Parliament Khalbsi met separately in Baghdad on August 19 with visiting Iranian Islamic Parliament Speaker Qalibaf to exchange views on issues such as consolidating bilateral relations and easing regional tensions.On August 20th, Fxstreet analyzed that market expectations for interest rate hikes have declined significantly since the Federal Reserves July meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market currently expects a 34% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September, down from about 60% three weeks ago; meanwhile, maintaining the current interest rate has become the clear benchmark scenario for the market. Against this backdrop, the key question facing the dollar is: were the three dissenting votes at the July meeting merely the hawkish stance of individual officials, or did they reflect a broader hawkish tendency within the FOMC? If the meeting minutes show that some officials who voted to maintain the current interest rate actually believed that the Fed might soon need to further tighten monetary policy, then expectations for a September rate hike could resurface. In this scenario, both US Treasury yields and the dollar could find support. However, the market reaction may still be relatively limited. Meeting minutes have a lag, and data released since the meeting has already changed the economic situation. Therefore, before the September meeting, investors may pay closer attention to upcoming US economic data and Warshs speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium to reassess the Feds monetary policy outlook.
