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On September 18th, TD Securities strategists wrote in a report that the slight decline in the British pound following the Bank of Englands decision to hold interest rates steady likely reflects the unchanged language of its forward guidance. The Bank of England reiterated that a "gradual and cautious" approach to future rate cuts remains appropriate, with subsequent decisions dependent on economic data. The strategists noted that this further reinforces the view that another Bank of England rate cut remains possible this year, with TD Securities predicting a November cut. They suggest that the British pound may decline against the euro ahead of the UKs Autumn Budget in November, but given that the Federal Reserve resumed rate cuts on Wednesday, further downside for the British pound against the US dollar is unlikely.Ukrainian President Zelensky: Ukrainian troops are launching a counteroffensive near Dobropolya and Pokrovsk in the east.On September 18th, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers stated that the Federal Reserves policy is leaning toward being "too accommodative," and emphasized that the biggest risk facing the U.S. economy lies in inflation, not the job market. Summers stated, "If I were in Chairman Powells shoes, my biggest concern would certainly be inflation." Regarding the Feds interest rate cuts, Summers said, "I dont think theyre being forced to do so by political pressure, but I do think that at this moment, the (Fed) must be pulling out all the stops (to maintain an anti-inflation stance). And Im not sure theyve pulled out all the stops as Id hoped."On September 18th, British Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves stated that the government is exploring measures to reduce inflation and will announce them in the next budget in November. In a correspondence with Bank of England Governor Bailey, Reeves described current inflation as "excessively high," adding, "The Prime Minister and I are both clear that we must do everything in our power to control costs and reduce spending." Regulations require written communication between the Chancellor and the Bank of England Governor when inflation deviates by more than one percentage point from the 2% target. The Bank of Englands forecast indicates that inflation is currently at 3.8%, above the 2% target, and is expected to rise to 4% next month. On Thursday, the day of the Bank of Englands monetary policy meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to maintain interest rates at 4% to continue to curb price increases.The U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Shipping Index was 26.1 in September, compared with 4.5 in the previous month.

The USD/JPY Currency Pair Swings in a 60-Pip Range as Bulls Reclaim 124.00 on a Positive Note

Drake Hampton

Apr 08, 2022 10:07

Tips

  • The USD/JPY is up 1.26 percent this week.

  • The greenback strengthens as investors shrug off geopolitical concerns.

  • Forecast for the USD/JPY Exchange Rate: As bulls, we are leaning upward and are aiming for the YTD high of 125.10.

 

As the Asian Pacific session opens, USD/JPY pair extends its weekly gains on broad US dollar strength. The USD/JPY remains strong at 124.15, after trading in a tight 55-pip range over the last three days as the Eastern Europe conflict between Russia and Ukraine enters its sixth day.

 

Asian market futures continue to trade higher, despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine confrontation. Contrary to the positive tone of Asian market futures, which point to a stronger open, US equities concluded the afternoon in a divided mood. Investors shrugged aside Russia-Ukraine tensions on Thursday, despite Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's complaint that Ukraine's new draft accord submitted to Russia does not meet Russia's demands on Crimea and Donbas. Meanwhile, recent reports indicate that Russia is regrouping soldiers in preparation for another offensive aimed at reclaiming Ukraine's eastern territories, Donetsk and Luhansk.

 

The North American session on Thursday featured Fed speakers, lead by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who stated that the Fed is still behind the curve in its efforts to contain inflation. Bullard said that by the second half of the year, he would like to see the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) at 3.5 percent.

 

Later that day, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans indicated that "we (the Fed) will reach neutral by the end of this year or early next."

 

On the Japanese docket, the Current Account for February and Consumer Confidence for March would be the headline economic data releases. On the US front, Wholesale Inventories for February will be released on a monthly basis. 

USD/JPY Forecast: Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY continues bullish, but the average daily range (ADR) has been 55 pips during the last three days. Daily moving averages (DMAs) below the spot price further reinforce the uptrend, and it's worth noting that the 100-DMA at 109.48 is on the verge of crossing over the 200-DMA at 109.60.

 

With that considered, the first resistance level for the USD/JPY would be 124.00. If the latter is breached, the March 29 daily high of 124.30 will be revealed, followed by the year-to-date high of 125.10.


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