• English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
On December 17th, the British government announced in a statement that it would begin negotiations with the European Union on electricity market integration. London further noted that progress in these negotiations could reduce electricity costs for British citizens. The British government commented, "Closer electricity cooperation will bring real benefits to businesses and consumers across the UK, boost investment in the North Sea region, and strengthen energy security." Both sides also "set a deadline next year for reaching a food and beverage trade agreement and carbon market interconnection" before the 2026 UK-EU summit.Market news: Mexico has lifted tariffs on imports of ammonium sulfate from the United States.December 17th - Traders are increasingly inclined to believe that the rate-cutting cycle by European central banks has largely ended. Money markets indicate that the European Central Bank, the Swedish central bank, and the Norwegian central bank are expected to keep rates unchanged at their meetings tomorrow and maintain broadly stable rates until the end of 2026. Even the Bank of England, which is expected to cut rates on Thursday, is only fully priced in one more rate cut next year, despite weaker inflation data released on Wednesday increasing the likelihood of another cut. This contrasts sharply with market sentiment earlier this year, when the market widely expected European central banks to cut rates significantly by 2026. Similarly, the Swiss National Bank, which previously led the way in rate cuts and lowered rates multiple times, has paused its rate cuts, and rates are now at zero. "Many of these countries have already cut rates multiple times – policy rates are no longer tightening," said Mike Riedel, a fund manager at Fidelity International. "The most notable change in interest rates over the past month is that some central banks that previously led the rate cuts are now expected to raise rates, rather than continue cutting them."Preliminary plans indicate that Angola will load 29 tankers of crude oil in February, compared to 30 tankers planned for January.On December 17th, Ukraines top military commander, Sergei Syrsky, stated on Wednesday that Ukrainian forces had taken control of nearly 90% of the northeastern town of Kupyansk. This came days after the Ukrainian president declared a victory for Ukrainian forces against Russian troops in Kupyansk. "Thanks to active search and strike operations, we have successfully driven [Russian troops] out of Kupyansk and taken control of nearly 90% of the towns territory," Syrsky wrote.

The USD/JPY Currency Pair Swings in a 60-Pip Range as Bulls Reclaim 124.00 on a Positive Note

Drake Hampton

Apr 08, 2022 10:07

Tips

  • The USD/JPY is up 1.26 percent this week.

  • The greenback strengthens as investors shrug off geopolitical concerns.

  • Forecast for the USD/JPY Exchange Rate: As bulls, we are leaning upward and are aiming for the YTD high of 125.10.

 

As the Asian Pacific session opens, USD/JPY pair extends its weekly gains on broad US dollar strength. The USD/JPY remains strong at 124.15, after trading in a tight 55-pip range over the last three days as the Eastern Europe conflict between Russia and Ukraine enters its sixth day.

 

Asian market futures continue to trade higher, despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine confrontation. Contrary to the positive tone of Asian market futures, which point to a stronger open, US equities concluded the afternoon in a divided mood. Investors shrugged aside Russia-Ukraine tensions on Thursday, despite Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's complaint that Ukraine's new draft accord submitted to Russia does not meet Russia's demands on Crimea and Donbas. Meanwhile, recent reports indicate that Russia is regrouping soldiers in preparation for another offensive aimed at reclaiming Ukraine's eastern territories, Donetsk and Luhansk.

 

The North American session on Thursday featured Fed speakers, lead by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who stated that the Fed is still behind the curve in its efforts to contain inflation. Bullard said that by the second half of the year, he would like to see the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) at 3.5 percent.

 

Later that day, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans indicated that "we (the Fed) will reach neutral by the end of this year or early next."

 

On the Japanese docket, the Current Account for February and Consumer Confidence for March would be the headline economic data releases. On the US front, Wholesale Inventories for February will be released on a monthly basis. 

USD/JPY Forecast: Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY continues bullish, but the average daily range (ADR) has been 55 pips during the last three days. Daily moving averages (DMAs) below the spot price further reinforce the uptrend, and it's worth noting that the 100-DMA at 109.48 is on the verge of crossing over the 200-DMA at 109.60.

 

With that considered, the first resistance level for the USD/JPY would be 124.00. If the latter is breached, the March 29 daily high of 124.30 will be revealed, followed by the year-to-date high of 125.10.


image.png