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June 22 – The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) announced today that it is optimizing client margin requirements for its derivatives clearinghouse to improve capital efficiency, reduce financing costs for market participants, and support the long-term development of Hong Kongs derivatives market. Under the revised arrangement, the client margin multiplier and client maintenance margin requirements will be adjusted in two phases to ensure a smooth transition and adequate market preparation. The first phase is scheduled to be implemented on September 21, 2026, and the second phase, subject to regulatory approval, is expected to be implemented in March 2027.On June 22, the Peoples Bank of China released its May financial market operation report. In May 2026, net financing of government bonds was 1,223.55 billion yuan, a decrease of 234.98 billion yuan year-on-year; net financing of corporate bonds was 168.04 billion yuan, an increase of 18.39 billion yuan year-on-year. At the end of May 2026, the outstanding balance of bonds in custody in the bond market was 202.6 trillion yuan. In May 2026, the turnover of the spot bond market was 36.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year; the turnover rate of spot bonds in the interbank bond market was 18.0%, a decrease of 3.9 percentage points month-on-month; the bid-ask spread for active 10-year Treasury bonds was 0.27 basis points. At the end of May 2026, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds was 1.71%; the yield spread between 10-year and 1-year Treasury bonds was 55 basis points, narrowing by 3 basis points month-on-month.June 22 – Asian crude oil imports are expected to recover to pre-Iranian conflict levels, but refined product supplies remain constrained, and this supply tightness will be reflected in prices. According to data compiled by shipping intelligence firm Kpler, Asia is projected to import approximately 22.18 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in June, compared to 20.35 million bpd in May. June imports are still below the average of 26.76 million bpd in the three months prior to the US-Israel attacks on Iran on February 28. However, this figure is significantly higher than the eight-year low of 18.77 million bpd in April, the month when the effects of Irans effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the conflict were most severe. Furthermore, the pre-conflict situation where approximately 20% of global crude oil and refined product shipments transited the Strait of Hormuz is likely to resume, which would allow more oil to arrive in Asia in July.The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that in the past 24 hours, Russian armed forces attacked oil refining facilities in Ukraine, as well as fuel, energy, and transportation infrastructure.On June 22nd, several real estate agencies released data on Shenzhens housing market transactions during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. Data from Leyoujia stores showed that during the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the combined number of new and existing home sales contracts in Shenzhen increased by 17% compared to the 2025 Dragon Boat Festival, reaching the highest value in the past five years; new home sales increased by 9%, and existing home sales increased by 21%. According to Shenzhen Centaline Property, the average daily number of viewings at Centaline stores during the holiday increased by 52% compared to mid-June. As of June 21st, a total of 6,264 new and existing home transactions were completed in Shenzhen in June, including 2,641 new homes (1,670 pre-sale and 971 existing home sales) and 3,623 existing home transfers. Xiao Xiaoping, Dean of the Shenzhen Beike Research Institute, stated that the year-on-year increase in transactions during the Dragon Boat Festival holiday was primarily due to the continued release of policy benefits in the preceding period, coupled with a full window of opportunity for home viewing during the long holiday, leading to a concentrated release of pent-up demand from first-time buyers and those seeking to upgrade their homes. More noteworthy is that, unlike previous years when demand was solely driven by first-time homebuyers, this years market is showing a trend of "simultaneous sales at both ends": the sales of low-priced first-time homebuyers are accelerating, while the proportion of transactions for high-end homes in Nanshan and Futian districts is rising simultaneously. The market is no longer supported by a single customer group; a virtuous cycle has been formed between first-time homebuyers and those upgrading their homes, continuously driving market circulation.

The USD/JPY Currency Pair Swings in a 60-Pip Range as Bulls Reclaim 124.00 on a Positive Note

Drake Hampton

Apr 08, 2022 10:07

Tips

  • The USD/JPY is up 1.26 percent this week.

  • The greenback strengthens as investors shrug off geopolitical concerns.

  • Forecast for the USD/JPY Exchange Rate: As bulls, we are leaning upward and are aiming for the YTD high of 125.10.

 

As the Asian Pacific session opens, USD/JPY pair extends its weekly gains on broad US dollar strength. The USD/JPY remains strong at 124.15, after trading in a tight 55-pip range over the last three days as the Eastern Europe conflict between Russia and Ukraine enters its sixth day.

 

Asian market futures continue to trade higher, despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine confrontation. Contrary to the positive tone of Asian market futures, which point to a stronger open, US equities concluded the afternoon in a divided mood. Investors shrugged aside Russia-Ukraine tensions on Thursday, despite Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's complaint that Ukraine's new draft accord submitted to Russia does not meet Russia's demands on Crimea and Donbas. Meanwhile, recent reports indicate that Russia is regrouping soldiers in preparation for another offensive aimed at reclaiming Ukraine's eastern territories, Donetsk and Luhansk.

 

The North American session on Thursday featured Fed speakers, lead by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who stated that the Fed is still behind the curve in its efforts to contain inflation. Bullard said that by the second half of the year, he would like to see the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) at 3.5 percent.

 

Later that day, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans indicated that "we (the Fed) will reach neutral by the end of this year or early next."

 

On the Japanese docket, the Current Account for February and Consumer Confidence for March would be the headline economic data releases. On the US front, Wholesale Inventories for February will be released on a monthly basis. 

USD/JPY Forecast: Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY continues bullish, but the average daily range (ADR) has been 55 pips during the last three days. Daily moving averages (DMAs) below the spot price further reinforce the uptrend, and it's worth noting that the 100-DMA at 109.48 is on the verge of crossing over the 200-DMA at 109.60.

 

With that considered, the first resistance level for the USD/JPY would be 124.00. If the latter is breached, the March 29 daily high of 124.30 will be revealed, followed by the year-to-date high of 125.10.


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