EUR/USD 1.15853
-0.568%
Gold 4458.14
-3.118%
Oil 82.713
-0.301%
USD/JPY 160.075
0.430%
GBP/USD 1.35378
-0.402%
GBP/JPY 216.693
0.027%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
On August 29th, NBC News, citing two sources familiar with the matter, reported that US Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth has been discussing the possibility of running for president in 2028 with close associates in recent months. Hegseth and his wife believe he shares some similarities with Trump, including a tough, confrontational style and conservative stances on social issues, which could garner support from the MAGA base. This month, Hegseth also traveled to Iowa to campaign for Republican lawmakers. Iowa has long been a key outpost in US presidential elections, further fueling speculation that he is preparing to run. If he does run, Hegseth could compete with Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, and others. However, a Pentagon spokesperson denied the claims, stating that "Secretary Hegseth will not run for president," and that his primary focus remains leading the Department of Defense. The report points out that the ongoing war with Iran could be a major political burden for Hegseth, with 18 US military personnel already killed and the average US gasoline price rising from less than $3 per gallon to slightly over $4.On August 29th, Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed El-Erian stated that todays changes in the US Treasury yield curve released two signals. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year yields narrowed by approximately 7 basis points, and the spread between the 2-year and 30-year yields narrowed by approximately 10 basis points, showing a flattening trend. El-Erian believes this reflects a dual interpretation in the fixed-income market: in the short term, it represents a hawkish repricing following Federal Reserve Chairman Warshs firm commitment to the inflation target; in the long term, it reflects recognition of the Federal Reserves long-term credibility.According to NBC News, U.S. Defense Secretary Hergsays is considering running for president in 2028.On August 29th, Deutsche Bank economists predicted that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by 25 basis points each in September and December. Fed Chairman Warsh, in his Jackson Hole speech, emphasized the need to bring inflation back to the 2% target and released a clearly hawkish signal. Deutsche Bank believes that unless future economic data is "significantly weaker than expected," the threshold for avoiding a 25 basis point rate hike in September is already very high. The market has also quickly increased its bets on rate hikes: CME data shows that the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points or more by December has risen to 51%, up from only 29% the previous day; the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 38%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is only 11%. Following Warshs speech, market bets on a September rate hike have also clearly intensified.US President Trump criticized New York Governor Hoher for "taking Canadas side," refusing to use the name "American Lake," and "preferring Canada to win," while also supporting Blackman as the next governor of New York.

The USD/JPY Currency Pair Swings in a 60-Pip Range as Bulls Reclaim 124.00 on a Positive Note

Drake Hampton

Apr 08, 2022 10:07

Tips

  • The USD/JPY is up 1.26 percent this week.

  • The greenback strengthens as investors shrug off geopolitical concerns.

  • Forecast for the USD/JPY Exchange Rate: As bulls, we are leaning upward and are aiming for the YTD high of 125.10.

 

As the Asian Pacific session opens, USD/JPY pair extends its weekly gains on broad US dollar strength. The USD/JPY remains strong at 124.15, after trading in a tight 55-pip range over the last three days as the Eastern Europe conflict between Russia and Ukraine enters its sixth day.

 

Asian market futures continue to trade higher, despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine confrontation. Contrary to the positive tone of Asian market futures, which point to a stronger open, US equities concluded the afternoon in a divided mood. Investors shrugged aside Russia-Ukraine tensions on Thursday, despite Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's complaint that Ukraine's new draft accord submitted to Russia does not meet Russia's demands on Crimea and Donbas. Meanwhile, recent reports indicate that Russia is regrouping soldiers in preparation for another offensive aimed at reclaiming Ukraine's eastern territories, Donetsk and Luhansk.

 

The North American session on Thursday featured Fed speakers, lead by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who stated that the Fed is still behind the curve in its efforts to contain inflation. Bullard said that by the second half of the year, he would like to see the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) at 3.5 percent.

 

Later that day, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans indicated that "we (the Fed) will reach neutral by the end of this year or early next."

 

On the Japanese docket, the Current Account for February and Consumer Confidence for March would be the headline economic data releases. On the US front, Wholesale Inventories for February will be released on a monthly basis. 

USD/JPY Forecast: Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY continues bullish, but the average daily range (ADR) has been 55 pips during the last three days. Daily moving averages (DMAs) below the spot price further reinforce the uptrend, and it's worth noting that the 100-DMA at 109.48 is on the verge of crossing over the 200-DMA at 109.60.

 

With that considered, the first resistance level for the USD/JPY would be 124.00. If the latter is breached, the March 29 daily high of 124.30 will be revealed, followed by the year-to-date high of 125.10.


image.png 


Suggestion