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On June 16, local time, Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf said that with the support and connivance of the US government, Israel has committed new crimes against Iran. Iranian people of all nationalities and political positions have now united to fight the enemy. Qalibaf said that a large part of the enemys attacks did not come from external military operations, but were carried out by infiltrators within Iran. It is reported that Iran recently executed a person who was accused of spying for Israeli intelligence agencies.June 16, OCBC analyst Vasu Menon said in a research report that unless it triggers an oil shock, tensions in the Middle East are unlikely to have a lasting impact on the market. He said the markets main concern is that Iran may target the Strait of Hormuz, one of the worlds most important oil transportation channels. However, the analyst said that Iran is unlikely to take such extreme actions because it may provoke opposition from its large oil customers and trading partners. He added that the Iranian regime will also act cautiously to avoid involving a superpower like the United States in its conflict with Israel. He also pointed out that there may be more volatility in the market in the next few days, but perhaps more important is the US decision on retaliatory tariffs before July 9.Both U.S. and Brent crude oil fell by $0.4 in the short term and are now trading at $73.32 per barrel and $73.4 per barrel respectively.ECB Vice President Guindos: We already understand the side effects of stimulus policies; we will pay more attention to the impact on financial stability.ECB Vice President Guindos: I fully believe that the Feds swap line will continue to be maintained, and the issue of transferring gold reserves back from New York has not even been discussed.

EUR/USD Is Likely to Fall Below 1.0850 Due to Ukraine Crisis and Hawkish ECB Minutes

Drake Hampton

Apr 08, 2022 10:11

  • EUR/USD is aiming for further loss as the DXY strengthens amid renewed talk of restoring neutral rates.

  • The common currency has been unable to benefit from hawkish ECB minutes and solid retail sales.

  • Members of the United Nations Human Rights Council voted in favor of Russia losing its associate status.

 

The EUR/USD pair is on a six-day losing run and is expected to extend losses on Friday as investors anticipate an escalation in the Ukraine issue following Russia's withdrawal from the United Nations (UN) Human Rights Council. The members of the United Nations Human Rights Council agreed to expel Russia after Russian separatists committed war crimes in Bucha, Ukraine. As world nations isolate Russia from key communities, Russian President Vladimir Putin may de-escalate progress negotiations with Ukraine, resulting in an escalation of the Ukraine issue.

 

Meanwhile, the hawkish minutes of the European Central Bank's (ECB) March monetary policy meeting have done little to bolster the common currency. The majority of ECB policymakers have backed swift action via monetary policy to rein in spiraling inflation. Apart from that, the ECB should terminate its Asset Purchase Program (APP) now that its declared purpose has been met.

 

Along with the hawkish ECB minutes, the shared currency has been unable to profit on the Euro Retail Sales' outperformance. Eurostat reported Retail Sales at 5%, up from the preliminary estimate of 4.8 percent but notably below the prior print of 8.4 percent.

 

On the dollar front, the US dollar index (DXY) is on the lookout for a catalyst that could propel the asset toward the much-anticipated resistance level of 100.00. Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers have begun to consider restoring policy rates to neutral in the face of rising inflation and the goal of a self-sufficient economy.

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