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March 11 – Due to persistent inflationary pressures, two major Australian banks expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise interest rates for the second consecutive week. National Australia Bank (NAB) and Westpac predicted on Wednesday that the RBA will raise rates by 25 basis points to 4.1% next week, in line with expectations from UBS and Deutsche Bank. NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld stated, “Given Australia’s relatively unfavorable inflation starting point and recent data confirming that the economy is running well above trend growth, the rationale for a rate hike in the near term is clear.” Westpac Chief Economist Luci Ellis said that the RBA’s belief that demand continues to exceed economic capacity and its willingness to address surging overall inflation to prevent a sustained rise in price expectations prompted her to change her forecast. Ellis stated, “There could be disagreements at next week’s meeting. Market participants should consider the possibility that the RBA might choose to wait until May to raise rates, but this is no longer our base case scenario.”March 11 (Kyodo News) – Japanese Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Ryosuke Akazawa stated on Wednesday during a parliamentary committee meeting, in response to questions from lawmakers, that the Japanese government has not ruled out the possibility of releasing national oil reserves "on its own initiative," rather than as part of a coordinated action. He added, "We will take all possible measures to ensure a stable energy supply." As of the end of December, Japans total oil reserves were sufficient to meet domestic consumption needs for 254 days, of which 146 days worth were held by the government, 101 days worth were held by the private sector, and the remainder were stored jointly with oil-producing countries.Market news: The Saudi Foreign Minister spoke with the US Secretary of State to discuss Irans regional aggression.Piper Jaffray: Lowered its target price for Oracle (ORCL.N) from $240 to $210.According to Israeli media reports, Iran launched two missiles at Israel.

The USD/CNH Exchange Rate Fluctuates Around 6.9000 As Focus Shifts To PBoC Policy

Daniel Rogers

Mar 17, 2023 13:53

Throughout the Asian session, the USD/CNH has maintained a range near 6.9000. Before taking action on the main, investors are awaiting the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) interest rate decision on Monday.

 

After a strong recovery on Thursday, S&P500 futures are exhibiting minimal losses in the Asian session, indicating a rise in market participants' risk appetite. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has escaped the tight consolidation between 104.30 and 104.60. Investors' skepticism regarding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) prospective monetary policy has diminished the appeal of the USD Index in the wake of a decline in U.S. inflation and escalating banking turmoil.

 

Following an optimistic recovery in 500-US stock basket futures, lethargic demand for US government bonds has increased the returns on the same. The yields on 10-year Treasury notes have surpassed 3.59 percent.

 

In the future, emphasis will be placed on the release of the PBoC's monetary policy decision. Economists from the UOB Group speculate that the PBoC may reduce the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at its March 20 meeting. The 1Y loan prime rate (LPR) could fall to 3.55 percent and the 5Y loan prime rate (LPR) could fall to 4.20 percent after the National People's Congress (NPC). This is due to the need for additional measures to support the actual economy and the wish to increase housing demand.

 

In addition, an upward revision of China's projected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would strengthen the Chinese Yuan. Goldman Sachs has increased its GDP forecast for China for 2023 from 5.5% to 6%.