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On June 17, UBS published a research report, predicting that Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) will have an average annual compound growth rate of 9% in earnings per share between fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2028, and the dividend yield in fiscal 2026 is expected to reach 6%. At the current price level, it is equivalent to a forecast price-earnings ratio of 14 times in the next 12 months, which is lower than the industry median of 15 times. The bank believes that Chow Tai Fook may be undervalued at present and is confident in its operating guidance for the new year. If the gold price continues to rise, there is room for an upward adjustment in the operating profit guidance. Based on the latest operating performance, performance guidance, higher same-store sales growth expectations, less gross profit margin pressure and more operating expense savings, UBS raised Chow Tai Fooks operating profit forecast for fiscal 2026 to fiscal 2027 by 20% to 21%, and its earnings per share forecast by 21% to 30%. The target price was raised from HK$12 to HK$16, and the earnings per share forecast for fiscal 2026 will increase by 51% year-on-year, mainly benefiting from the reduction in gold lending losses, as well as brand transformation and product portfolio improvement. The rating is "buy".June 17, Citigroup said that it expects gold to fall back below $3,000 an ounce in the coming quarters. Analysts including Max Layton said: "By the second half of 2026, gold will return to about $2,500-2,700 an ounce." Weaker investment demand, improved global economic growth prospects, and the Federal Reserves interest rate cuts may all lead to a decline in gold prices. They said: "We believe that investment demand for gold will weaken in late 2025 and 2026 as Trumps popularity rises and the put option on US economic growth begins to take effect, especially as the US midterm elections become the focus." In addition, "we believe that the Federal Reserve has a lot of room to lower restrictive policies to neutral." In the banks basic forecast (with a probability of 60%), gold prices are expected to consolidate above $3,000 an ounce in the next quarter and then move lower.Sources said the G7 reached a statement on the Middle East issue.Both U.S. and Brent crude oil fell by $0.8 in the short term. It was reported that Trumps team proposed to negotiate with Iran this week.According to the AXIOS website: The Trump team proposed to negotiate with Iran on a nuclear agreement and ceasefire this week.

At 1.2100, Bulls in the GBP/USD Market Are Challenging Bear Commitments

Alina Haynes

Mar 13, 2023 11:48

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GBP / USD is 0.33 percent higher after the pair rose from a low of 1.2063 to a high of 1.2103, its largest gain since January 6 as the US Dollar largely weakens following Friday's US employment report.

 

The markets have reduced their bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates as aggressively despite the rise in the unemployment rate and signs of wage inflation moderating. The United States added 311,000 positions in February and the unemployment rate increased to 3.6%. Reuters polled economists, who predicted that the United States would have added 205,000 jobs last month and that the unemployment rate would remain unchanged at 3.4%. After gaining 0.3% in January, average hourly earnings increased 0.2% in February, which was less than the 0.3% increase anticipated.

 

In addition, the United Kingdom's economy grew faster than expected in January, easing concerns about a recession. Following a 0.5% decline in December, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the British economy grew 0.3% month-over-month in January. A survey of economists conducted by Reuters indicated growth of 0.1%.

 

The bankruptcy of SVB Financial Group is the largest bank failure since the financial crisis. However, the Biden administration guaranteed on Sunday that all Silicon Valley Bank customers will have access to their funds on Monday. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and FDIC Chairman Martin J. Gruenberg announced in a joint statement on Sunday that the FDIC will compensate SVB and Signature's customers in full.

 

The imminent schedule is jam-packed with US consumer Price Index and UK labor market data. As official data continues to catch up to high-frequency indicators, analysts at TD Securities anticipate that the labor market will deteriorate in January, with the unemployment rate increasing and wage growth diminishing. Following last month's upside surprise, the Bank of England will be particularly pleased to see wage growth slow. The release of the US CPI later in the day may result in a muted market reaction, barring a significant surprise.

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