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January 14th - According to a report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales in the U.S. rose 5.1% month-over-month in December. On a monthly basis, home sales increased in all regions. On a year-over-year basis, sales increased in the South, remained flat in the Midwest and West, and declined in the Northeast. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated, "2025 will remain a challenging year for homebuyers, with record high home prices and historically low existing home sales. However, market conditions began to improve in the fourth quarter, with mortgage rates declining and home price growth slowing. After seasonal adjustment, December home sales reached their highest level in nearly three years, with widespread increases across all four major regions." The economist added, "Inventory levels remain tight. Homeowners are more cautious in deciding whether to list or withdraw their properties due to low seller willingness to sell. Similar to previous years, more homes are expected to enter the market starting in February."On January 14th, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Paulson reiterated on Wednesday that she expects the Fed to cut short-term interest rates later this year if the economy performs in line with her expectations of moderate inflation and a stable job market. In prepared remarks for a Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce event, Paulson stated, "My baseline expectations are rather modest," anticipating inflation to fall to around 2% by the end of the year, a stable job market, and economic growth remaining at around 2%. She noted, "If all of this happens, then some modest adjustments to the federal funds rate later this year might be appropriate." Regarding the job market, Paulson reiterated, "The labor market is clearly slowing, but it hasnt collapsed." She believes risks have increased, which is one of the key reasons she supported the FOMCs 75-basis-point rate cut last year.US business inventories rose 0.3% month-on-month in October, below the expected 0.2% and the previous reading of 0.20%.US existing home sales rose 5.1% month-over-month in December, below the expected 2.2% and the previous months figure revised up from 0.50% to 0.7%.Federal Reserves Paulson: The U.S. economy is not doing well in every aspect right now.

Stock Markets Continue to Put Up a Fight

Cory Russell

Jul 18, 2022 15:12

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Weekly Technical Analysis for the S&P 500

The S&P 500 has declined considerably over the last week, but it's important to remember that the previous three candlesticks have all been hammers, which does indicate that a balance or perhaps a breakout to show signs of life is very approaching. Having said that, I believe the market will, more often than not, exhibit a scenario in which there will be a brief rebound and maybe a bid to test the 4200 level. If we could break through the 4200 level, which has served as a big area of resistance as well, the general trend would alter.


On the other side, this market is likely to crash very severely if we reverse course and break down below the 3640 level and, therefore, the 200 day EMA. Given everything being equal, I think this market is a touch oversold, so a little rebound makes some sense. The market will likely continue to be choppy and noisy, and you should be concerned about the fact that we are almost certainly heading into a recession, despite what some people on Wall Street would have you believe. Keep in mind that we are about to enter the earnings season, so you need to pay close attention to pre-market volatility.


In the end, I believe fading rallies will continue to be effective, but we must wait for those rallies to take place in order to get some opportunity and a better risk-to-reward ratio.