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March 1st - Christopher Wong, a strategist at OCBC Bank in Singapore, stated, "With markets poised to open on Monday, the Iranian conflict has pushed up geopolitical risk premiums. The initial market reaction is largely predictable: safe-haven assets like gold may gap up, while oil prices could strengthen due to supply disruption concerns. Risk assets and high-beta currencies... may face initial volatility, especially if news reports suggest potential retaliation or regional spillover effects."March 1st - At the start of the Year of the Horse, many provinces have released detailed rules and regulations for their car trade-in programs. Statistics show that since February 10th, more than five provinces, including Hunan, Qinghai, Henan, Fujian, and Jiangxi, have successively issued detailed rules and regulations for their car trade-in programs. Currently, all provinces in mainland China have released detailed rules and regulations for the 2026 national car subsidy program. A comprehensive review shows that the subsidy details released by various provinces are largely the same. The policy implementation period is from January 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026. The subsidy program is divided into scrapping and replacement. The scrapping subsidy standard is as follows: for scrapping a qualified old car and purchasing a new energy passenger vehicle, a subsidy of 12% of the new cars sales price will be given, with a maximum subsidy of 20,000 yuan; for scrapping a qualified gasoline passenger vehicle and purchasing a gasoline passenger vehicle with an engine displacement of 2.0 liters or less, a subsidy of 10% of the new cars sales price will be given, with a maximum subsidy of 15,000 yuan. The replacement subsidy standards are as follows: For those who replace their vehicles with eligible new energy passenger vehicles, a subsidy of 8% of the new vehicles sales price will be granted, with a maximum subsidy of 15,000 yuan. For those who replace their vehicles with eligible gasoline passenger vehicles, a subsidy of 6% of the new vehicles sales price will be granted, with a maximum subsidy of 13,000 yuan.Market news: A U.S. air base at Erbil International Airport in Iraq caught fire following an Iranian drone/missile attack.Royal Bank of Canada analyst Helima Croft: If the conflict drags on, Washington officials may regret not replenishing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).Royal Bank of Canada analyst Helima Croft: Due to a lack of actual production capacity, any headlines tomorrow about OPEC+ increasing production will have a limited impact on oil prices.

Stock Markets Continue to Put Up a Fight

Cory Russell

Jul 18, 2022 15:12

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Weekly Technical Analysis for the S&P 500

The S&P 500 has declined considerably over the last week, but it's important to remember that the previous three candlesticks have all been hammers, which does indicate that a balance or perhaps a breakout to show signs of life is very approaching. Having said that, I believe the market will, more often than not, exhibit a scenario in which there will be a brief rebound and maybe a bid to test the 4200 level. If we could break through the 4200 level, which has served as a big area of resistance as well, the general trend would alter.


On the other side, this market is likely to crash very severely if we reverse course and break down below the 3640 level and, therefore, the 200 day EMA. Given everything being equal, I think this market is a touch oversold, so a little rebound makes some sense. The market will likely continue to be choppy and noisy, and you should be concerned about the fact that we are almost certainly heading into a recession, despite what some people on Wall Street would have you believe. Keep in mind that we are about to enter the earnings season, so you need to pay close attention to pre-market volatility.


In the end, I believe fading rallies will continue to be effective, but we must wait for those rallies to take place in order to get some opportunity and a better risk-to-reward ratio.

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