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On August 29th, StoneX market analyst Fawad Razaqzada stated that Warshs speech on Friday night was considered quite hawkish. Regarding forward guidance, Warsh said what the market expected him to say: he doesnt believe in forward guidance and therefore refused to pre-commit to a September rate hike. However, this didnt stop the market from speculating that a rate hike might indeed be back on the table. Regarding inflation, Warsh stated that combating inflation remains a clear priority and elaborated on this in detail, but he also added that he was confident core inflation was moving towards the Feds target. Overall, his speech was more hawkish than the market expected. During Warshs Jackson Hole speech, the market significantly repriced the September Fed decision, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike jumping from 30% to approximately 50%. Before the September Fed meeting, there will be a non-farm payroll report and a CPI inflation report, along with some other minor data releases. Under the new chairman, the Fed has become more data-dependent. Given that recent US employment reports have consistently missed expectations and by a large margin, any further weakening could severely undermine market expectations for a September rate hike.On August 29th, according to multiple foreign media reports, on August 28th local time, Chinese chipmaker Changxin Memory Technologies Co., Ltd. (CXMT) filed a lawsuit with the U.S. Department of Defense, demanding its removal from a blacklist. According to Bloomberg, CXMT stated that its chips are designed for civilian and commercial use, not military purposes, and claimed it was wrongly blacklisted. The lawsuit has been filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, with U.S. Defense Secretary Peter Hegses listed as a defendant. In a statement released after filing the lawsuit, CXMT stated that the company is not a military enterprise and that its reputation and business interests have continued to suffer since it was first blacklisted in January 2025. The company added that this action was taken to protect its business interests. According to Reuters, the U.S. Department of Defense stated in a statement that, according to policy, the Department of Defense does not comment on pending or ongoing litigation.August 29th - The 2026 China International Big Data Industry Expo (Big Data Expo) is currently being held in Guiyang, Guizhou. Today, a representative from the National Data Administration stated at the "Data and Computing Integration Driving the Future" exchange event that the computing power network, water network, new power grid, next-generation communication network, urban underground pipe network, and logistics network form a deeply coupled, mutually empowering, and collaboratively supporting organic whole. It was explained that the computing power network, acting as the "brain," assists in the intelligent scheduling of new power grids and the consumption of new energy; collaborates with the next-generation communication network to promote data flow, model training, and application innovation; empowers water networks to achieve accurate forecasting of watershed water conditions and dynamic allocation of water resources; supports urban underground pipe networks to drive real-time monitoring, risk warning, and emergency response for lifeline projects such as gas, drainage, and heating; and connects with the logistics network to promote cost reduction and efficiency improvement across the entire supply chain. The latest data released at the conference shows that as of the end of July, the total scale of intelligent computing nationwide reached 2.45 million PFLOPS (FP16), and the eight national computing power hubs and three computing-electricity collaborative development zones have built intelligent computing scales, accounting for over 85% of the national total.August 29th – The 2026 China International Big Data Industry Expo is being held in Guiyang, Guizhou. Today, an official from the National Data Administration stated at the expo that the rapid application of big data models across various industries is driving a rapid increase in the volume of word token calls in my country, resulting in explosive market demand. Liu Liehong, Director of the National Data Administration, stated at a word token-themed exchange activity that the stronger the models comprehensive capabilities, the higher the efficiency of word token production, and the better the logic, accuracy, and quality of the output content. Word tokens provide an important benchmark for the measurement, pricing, transaction, and settlement of artificial intelligence services. Currently, the word token industry chain has gathered diverse entities such as computing power leasing companies, model manufacturers, data service providers, and professional technical service institutions, and different types of "word token factories" have evolved in practice.The Iranian government stated that it is committed to resolutely resisting US sanctions, and that diplomacy and defense are "complementary and inseparable."

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Struggle

Alice Wang

Jul 15, 2022 15:54

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Due to the ongoing pessimism, the S&P 500 has decreased somewhat during Thursday's trading session. At this time, it seems as if the market is prepared to go further, maybe attempting to approach the most recent lows at the 3637 level. In the end, this market should continue to see a lot of agitated behavior. I believe that fading rallies will remain a significant problem. The 50 Day EMA is now hanging in the general vicinity of the 3950 level, which serves as the ceiling at this time.


Ultimately, your indication to become engaged will be when you start to feel exhausted after brief rallies. Given the lack of global growth and the fact that inflation is still a problem, I do believe the downward trend will continue. Additionally, the Federal Reserve is rapidly tightening monetary policy, and as a result, a 100 basis point interest rate rise is being predicted. Due to the fact that the S&P 500 contains so many significant exporters, it is extremely probable that we will continue to see significant problems with the global economy.


In the end, a running season is approaching, so there could be some "hopium" waiting to happen, but after hearing J.P. Morgan declare, "We have never seen an economic scenario like this," during its results presentation, I don't think this earnings season will be cause for celebration. After a rally, I will suppress any indications of tiredness.