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On August 11th, Futures News reported that precious metal prices fluctuated and strengthened on Monday, with international gold prices approaching their highest level since mid-June. Domestic Shanghai gold and silver futures prices both rose by more than 2%, indicating a significant recovery in market bullish sentiment. 1. "Recently, multiple positive factors have converged to drive the rise in gold and silver prices," said Bai Suna, chief precious metals analyst at Guomao Futures. She explained that the simultaneous weakening of geopolitical and macroeconomic negative factors has laid a solid foundation for the rebound in gold and silver prices. On the one hand, the Strait of Hormuz signaled a peace talks, and the decline in oil prices eased upward pressure on US inflation, reducing the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the market. On the other hand, US non-farm payrolls and ADP employment data for July were all weak, with non-farm payrolls significantly lower than expected, cooling expectations for a Fed rate hike and pushing down the dollar and US Treasury yields, easing valuation pressures on precious metals. 2. Looking ahead, analysts generally believe that the short-term fluctuation and medium-to-long-term upward trend in gold and silver prices remains unchanged. Bai Suna stated that the logic of a medium-to-long-term upward trend in gold and silver prices remains unchanged. With factors such as the gradual decline in US inflation, the continued weakening of negative macroeconomic factors, limited upside potential for US Treasury real interest rates, and the ongoing global de-dollarization process, the gold bull market is expected to continue. Overall, gold and silver prices are currently at a cyclical bottom, and market volatility is high. Investors are advised to closely monitor three core variables: geopolitical tensions, inflation data, and Federal Reserve policy, avoid blindly chasing the market higher, and manage their positions prudently.August 11th - According to sources familiar with the matter, Intel (INTC.O) is seeking to expand its stock offering to approximately $20 billion, a third higher than the $15 billion target set when it announced the deal Monday morning. The sources indicated that Intel expects to offer shares at approximately $95 per share or higher. One source stated that if the so-called over-allotment option is exercised, the offering could further expand to over $20 billion, and demand for the offering has already exceeded $100 billion. The sources indicated that discussions are ongoing, and details, including the offering size and pricing, are still subject to change.1. With the 30-year US Treasury yield rising to a 19-year high of 5.27%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield reaching 4.75%, it is once again approaching 5%. In response, US Treasury Secretary Bessenter recently intervened in the yen in conjunction with Japan, indicating a desire to adjust the supply of long-term bonds and strongly supporting Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh, employing a multi-pronged approach. 2. The three major US stock indexes closed slightly lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.11% to 53,975.98 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.06% to 7,753.11 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.32% to 26,605.36 points. Nvidia fell nearly 3%, and Travelers Group fell more than 2%, leading the decline in the Dow Jones. The optical communications sector opened higher but closed lower, with Coherent falling more than 14% and Lumentum falling more than 8%. The memory sector was mixed, with SanDisk rising more than 2%, SK Hynix falling nearly 2%, and Seagate Technology falling more than 1%. The Wind US Tech Big Seven Index fell 0.4%, with Apple falling more than 1% and Amazon rising more than 1%. SpaceX rose more than 4%. 3. Brent crude oil futures rose 5.18%, and WTI crude oil futures rose 5.27% to $82.30 per barrel. 4. International precious metals futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures rising 1.11% to $4448.6 per ounce and COMEX silver futures rising 3.75% to $65.88 per ounce.August 11th - A survey shows that British consumers increased their spending on food and pubs last month, driven by Englands qualification for the World Cup semi-finals and the heatwave, but remained cautious about large expenditures. Data released Tuesday by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) showed that total UK retail sales in July rose 1.3% year-on-year, below the average and lower than Junes 1.9% growth. Food sales increased by 3.8% year-on-year, while non-food sales fell by 0.7%. Clothing sales were boosted by the heatwave, but footwear sales declined. Sarah Bradbury, chief executive of the Grocery Distributors Association (IGD), said: "The food supply chain is under increasing pressure due to the Middle East conflict and the ongoing heatwave, increasing the likelihood of rising food costs and potentially putting further strain on household budgets as we head into autumn." Barclays broader consumer spending indicator showed that consumer spending rose 2.0% year-on-year in July, slightly higher than Junes 1.9%.UK BRC total retail sales rose 1.3% year-on-year in July, down from 1.9% in the previous month.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Struggle

Alice Wang

Jul 15, 2022 15:54

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Due to the ongoing pessimism, the S&P 500 has decreased somewhat during Thursday's trading session. At this time, it seems as if the market is prepared to go further, maybe attempting to approach the most recent lows at the 3637 level. In the end, this market should continue to see a lot of agitated behavior. I believe that fading rallies will remain a significant problem. The 50 Day EMA is now hanging in the general vicinity of the 3950 level, which serves as the ceiling at this time.


Ultimately, your indication to become engaged will be when you start to feel exhausted after brief rallies. Given the lack of global growth and the fact that inflation is still a problem, I do believe the downward trend will continue. Additionally, the Federal Reserve is rapidly tightening monetary policy, and as a result, a 100 basis point interest rate rise is being predicted. Due to the fact that the S&P 500 contains so many significant exporters, it is extremely probable that we will continue to see significant problems with the global economy.


In the end, a running season is approaching, so there could be some "hopium" waiting to happen, but after hearing J.P. Morgan declare, "We have never seen an economic scenario like this," during its results presentation, I don't think this earnings season will be cause for celebration. After a rally, I will suppress any indications of tiredness.