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July 4th - US President Trump: The US economy is booming! The stock market just recorded its best quarterly performance since my last term. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices all surged, and Americans 401(k) retirement accounts continued to grow. My tax cuts for working families have put more money in American pockets. The US trade deficit continues to narrow, and exports have hit record highs for several consecutive months. The US is building, producing, and selling at an unprecedented pace. The trillions of dollars in new investment attracted under my administration mean more factories, more jobs, and more opportunities for the American people. This is victory. Americas "golden age" has begun, and this is just the beginning!July 4th - The Fujian Provincial Government recently issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Digital Fujian," further detailing the development goals and key tasks for the construction of Digital Fujian during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The plan proposes that by 2030, the provinces level of digital and intelligent development will reach a leading position domestically, continuously consolidating its advantages in areas such as market-oriented allocation of data elements, industrial digitalization, digital government construction, and the digital and intelligent development environment, making Digital Fujian a benchmark for the construction of Digital China. Specifically, it aims to achieve an average annual growth rate of over 8% in the added value of the core digital economy industries over the next five years.Artificial Intelligence: 1. Alibaba has completely banned Claude Code internally due to the risk of backdoor implantation. 2. Hanwha Group: Will invest 55 trillion won in South Korea to build satellite, space launch vehicle, and defense AI data centers. Integrated Circuits (Chips): 1. Samsung and SK Hynix are reportedly leading the demand for substrate manufacturers to lower prices. 2. Kioxia delivered samples of its new generation of flash memory chips to AI data centers. 3. Samsung reportedly received over 10 trillion won in AI chip foundry orders from Meta. 4. Samsung plans to raise DRAM prices by 20% in the third quarter; manufacturers say they have already received notification. 5. Infineons worlds largest power semiconductor factory, with an investment of 5 billion euros, has started production ahead of schedule. New Energy Vehicles: 1. Three departments: Starting next year, pure electric commercial vehicles and plug-in hybrid/range-extended vehicles will be required to pay vehicle and vessel tax. 2. China Passenger Car Association: Retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 1.651 million units in June, a year-on-year decrease of 21%. 3. According to Teslas (TSLA.O) official Weibo account, the number of Teslas global Superchargers has exceeded 80,000, with 2,700 new units added in the second quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of 17%. Other: 1. TrendForce: Memory prices in the third quarter are expected to increase by 13-18% quarter-on-quarter, supported by AI servers. 2. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has decided to establish a Quantum Information Standardization Technical Committee to be responsible for the formulation and revision of industry standards. 3. According to Yonhap News Agency: The head of the Korea Aerospace Administration stated that South Korea plans to launch a lunar lander before 2030. 4. South Korea, together with Samsung, SK, and other companies, launched a 312 trillion won investment plan, focusing on the semiconductor and aerospace industries.July 4th - Q: Could you please explain the main considerations for revising the E-commerce Law? A: First, its necessary to promote win-win development for platform enterprises and operators/workers within the platforms. Second, its necessary to maintain a fair and competitive market environment. E-commerce platform operators are important participants in online market governance, possessing the dual attributes of operators and managers. Its necessary to revise the E-commerce Law to improve the legal liability system for platforms, solidify their primary responsibilities, encourage them to strengthen compliance, and drive related business entities to jointly create a healthy online market environment. Third, its necessary to promote high-quality economic development. A standardized and orderly market order is an important guarantee for the healthy development of various business entities in the platform economy. Its necessary to revise the E-commerce Law to improve the regulatory mechanism, enhance regulatory methods, and strengthen regulatory effectiveness from a legislative perspective, guiding various business entities in the platform economy to shift from "traffic-first" to "innovation-driven," and from "price-driven" to "quality-driven," better promoting the development of new productive forces and serving the overall high-quality development strategy. Fourth, its necessary to expand high-level opening-up. E-commerce is one of the key areas for steadily expanding institutional opening-up and holds an important position in global digital economy competition. It is necessary to amend the E-commerce Law to improve and add provisions on open cooperation, industry self-regulation, countermeasures against foreign countries, consultation and dispute resolution, so as to further expand the opening up of the e-commerce sector and create a favorable legal environment for the orderly overseas expansion of my countrys e-commerce.On July 4th, SemiAnalysis, a leading research firm specializing in semiconductor and AI infrastructure, published an article stating that the proportion of memory in hyperscale data center capital expenditures has sparked considerable discussion, especially after Micron Technologys earnings report last week. Some market participants are alarmed by how high this proportion might be next year. The firm stated that after releasing its initial views at the end of February, many clients questioned its 30% figure: "Memory only accounts for a dozen percentage points of the server BOM. How can overall capital expenditure be so high?" In May, after prices rose even faster than expected, SemiAnalysis directly responded that, combining DRAM, NAND, and HBM, memory expenditures in Nvidia systems will exceed 30% by the end of 2026 and surpass 40% in 2027. The firm expects the market to gain a fuller understanding of this trend in the coming months.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Struggle

Alice Wang

Jul 15, 2022 15:54

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Due to the ongoing pessimism, the S&P 500 has decreased somewhat during Thursday's trading session. At this time, it seems as if the market is prepared to go further, maybe attempting to approach the most recent lows at the 3637 level. In the end, this market should continue to see a lot of agitated behavior. I believe that fading rallies will remain a significant problem. The 50 Day EMA is now hanging in the general vicinity of the 3950 level, which serves as the ceiling at this time.


Ultimately, your indication to become engaged will be when you start to feel exhausted after brief rallies. Given the lack of global growth and the fact that inflation is still a problem, I do believe the downward trend will continue. Additionally, the Federal Reserve is rapidly tightening monetary policy, and as a result, a 100 basis point interest rate rise is being predicted. Due to the fact that the S&P 500 contains so many significant exporters, it is extremely probable that we will continue to see significant problems with the global economy.


In the end, a running season is approaching, so there could be some "hopium" waiting to happen, but after hearing J.P. Morgan declare, "We have never seen an economic scenario like this," during its results presentation, I don't think this earnings season will be cause for celebration. After a rally, I will suppress any indications of tiredness.