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On March 15th, Matt Reed, Vice President of the geopolitical and energy consultancy Foreign Reports, stated that an attack on Kharg Island could trigger Iranian retaliation against Gulf oil-producing countries. He said, "Iran will retaliate in kind." The United States warned on Friday that if Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz, Kharg Islands oil facilities could become the next target. Reed warned that the longer the conflict continues, the harder it will be to find alternative energy supplies. "At least 10 million barrels of oil are trapped in the Gulf every day, plus more than 4 million barrels of refined petroleum products and tens of billions of cubic feet of liquefied natural gas, with no easy alternatives." The International Energy Agency has announced the largest emergency oil reserve release in history, with 32 member countries planning to release approximately 400 million barrels of oil. However, Reed believes this measure will have limited effect, stating, "By the time the oil gets to the market, it may be too little, too late." He described it as nothing more than a "band-aid."On March 15th, local time, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement saying that in the past 48 hours, the US and Israel had launched attacks on several civilian industrial facilities in Iran, resulting in the deaths of several workers. The statement said that after setbacks in its confrontation with Iran, the US and Israel have turned to attacking non-military industrial facilities. Iran warned that US companies in the region should withdraw from their facilities and urged nearby residents to stay away from industrial areas with US capital involvement to avoid potential attacks.The Swiss government has discussed the US request for military overflight. In accordance with the principle of neutrality, the Federal Council rejected two requests related to the war with Iran.Local officials said operations at the Lanaz refinery in Iraq’s Erbil province have been suspended until the fire is extinguished and the damage is assessed.On March 15th, Colombian Energy Minister Edwin Palma posted on the X platform that Venezuelas state-owned oil company PDVSA intends to terminate its contract with Colombias state-owned oil company Ecopetrol regarding the Antonio Ricardo pipeline, citing insufficient investment in its maintenance. Palma stated that the Colombian government plans to meet with the US government next Monday to discuss lifting sanctions in an effort to normalize commercial relations with Venezuela. Palma also indicated that Colombia has approved a license to resume imports of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from Venezuela at a rate of 1.26 million gallons per month.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Struggle

Alice Wang

Jul 15, 2022 15:54

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Due to the ongoing pessimism, the S&P 500 has decreased somewhat during Thursday's trading session. At this time, it seems as if the market is prepared to go further, maybe attempting to approach the most recent lows at the 3637 level. In the end, this market should continue to see a lot of agitated behavior. I believe that fading rallies will remain a significant problem. The 50 Day EMA is now hanging in the general vicinity of the 3950 level, which serves as the ceiling at this time.


Ultimately, your indication to become engaged will be when you start to feel exhausted after brief rallies. Given the lack of global growth and the fact that inflation is still a problem, I do believe the downward trend will continue. Additionally, the Federal Reserve is rapidly tightening monetary policy, and as a result, a 100 basis point interest rate rise is being predicted. Due to the fact that the S&P 500 contains so many significant exporters, it is extremely probable that we will continue to see significant problems with the global economy.


In the end, a running season is approaching, so there could be some "hopium" waiting to happen, but after hearing J.P. Morgan declare, "We have never seen an economic scenario like this," during its results presentation, I don't think this earnings season will be cause for celebration. After a rally, I will suppress any indications of tiredness.