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August 26 – According to the Wall Street Journal, a U.S. government official stated that Trump has submitted a landmark Saudi civilian nuclear agreement to Congress for consideration, but has not abandoned his last-minute demand that Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel. This move is expected to spark months of heated debate among lawmakers on how to promote the development of the U.S. nuclear industry while curbing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East. Last month, when announcing the 30-year agreement, Trump administration officials stated that it would allow U.S. companies to play a central role in Saudi Arabias nuclear infrastructure development while excluding foreign competition. However, the agreement has been controversial because it could open the door to uranium enrichment activities on Saudi Arabian soil.A Reuters poll on August 26th showed that most economists believe the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will act sooner than previously expected, raising interest rates again in September, and the final rate level may be even higher. The survey found that 57% of economists expect the BOJ to raise rates next month, a significant increase from just 5% in July. A smaller minority (10 out of 58) expect the central bank to raise rates again in October or December, bringing the rate to 1.5%. Ayako Fujita, chief economist for Japan at JPMorgan Chase, said, "Since the market has largely priced in a September rate hike, delaying it would likely cause market turmoil, making an earlier policy adjustment inevitable." Looking beyond this year, nearly two-thirds of analysts (35 out of 54) expect the policy rate to reach at least 1.5% by the end of March next year, three months earlier than predicted in the July survey. About 60% of analysts expect the rate to reach at least 1.75% by the end of the third quarter of 2027. Furthermore, regarding the recent rare joint foreign exchange intervention by the US and Japan, more than two-thirds of the respondents (18 out of 26) said that the measures were "not very effective" or "completely ineffective." Many people believe that these measures only delayed the problem rather than truly solving the fundamental issue.US officials: US President Trump still believes that the nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia can only move forward if Saudi Arabia joins the Abraham Accords and recognizes Israel.August 26th - Minutes from the Federal Reserves discount rate meeting released Wednesday morning showed that four of the 12 regional Federal Reserve boards voted in favor of raising the interest rate charged on emergency loans to commercial banks days before the Feds July meeting. The Feds FOMC decided to keep the policy rate unchanged by a 9-3 vote at its July 28-29 meeting, and these recommendations further highlight the internal controversy surrounding this decision. The boards of the Dallas, Cleveland, and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Banks, as well as the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, voted to raise the primary lending rate by 25 basis points. The presidents of the first three regional Fed banks all voted against keeping rates unchanged at the July policy meeting, while Kansas City Fed President Schmid has no voting rights this year. Regional Fed directors are not monetary policy decision-makers and do not determine the Feds interest rates, but they meet regularly with their respective regional Fed presidents. Regional Fed presidents stated that the directors views help shape their own economic and policy outlook. The regional Federal Reserve boards vote on the discount rate at their regular meetings, but the rate is ultimately set by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors to align with the upper limit of the target range for the policy rate. Since December of last year, the target range for the Federal Reserve policy rate has remained between 3.5% and 3.75%.A Reuters poll found that 89% of economists believe Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis fiscal policies have put downward pressure on the yen.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Struggle

Alice Wang

Jul 15, 2022 15:54

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Due to the ongoing pessimism, the S&P 500 has decreased somewhat during Thursday's trading session. At this time, it seems as if the market is prepared to go further, maybe attempting to approach the most recent lows at the 3637 level. In the end, this market should continue to see a lot of agitated behavior. I believe that fading rallies will remain a significant problem. The 50 Day EMA is now hanging in the general vicinity of the 3950 level, which serves as the ceiling at this time.


Ultimately, your indication to become engaged will be when you start to feel exhausted after brief rallies. Given the lack of global growth and the fact that inflation is still a problem, I do believe the downward trend will continue. Additionally, the Federal Reserve is rapidly tightening monetary policy, and as a result, a 100 basis point interest rate rise is being predicted. Due to the fact that the S&P 500 contains so many significant exporters, it is extremely probable that we will continue to see significant problems with the global economy.


In the end, a running season is approaching, so there could be some "hopium" waiting to happen, but after hearing J.P. Morgan declare, "We have never seen an economic scenario like this," during its results presentation, I don't think this earnings season will be cause for celebration. After a rally, I will suppress any indications of tiredness.