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Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: 1. Overnight, gold prices initially declined before rebounding. Spot gold recovered to $4,500/ounce, up 0.08%, while SHFE gold rose 1.03%. US initial jobless claims data was released, showing 206,000 claims this week, lower than the expected 210,000, indicating resilience in the job market. After a significant rise in gold prices the previous day, some profit-taking led to intraday volatility. The US Treasury expanded its long-term bond repurchase program, causing yields on long-term US Treasury bonds to rise again. US Treasury Secretary Bessenter stated that a single long-term bond repurchase could exceed $4 billion, emphasizing the Treasurys powerful toolbox, which further eased market concerns. However, expanding long-term bond repurchases cannot solve the problem of high US fiscal debt; the policy itself is a support measure after the bond market crash, and the market may gradually return to rationality. Short-term gold volatility has intensified. 2. On the geopolitical front, according to Xinhua News Agency, the US military has quietly established a shipping channel in and out of the Strait of Hormuz, ensuring that "millions of barrels" of oil are transported out of the Strait of Hormuz daily. This operation has been ongoing for several weeks. The rapidly growing US Treasury bond, concerns about stagflation, the stalemate in US-Iran negotiations, and the Federal Reserves indecisiveness regarding a September rate hike have fueled safe-haven demand for gold, potentially driving gold prices to maintain a relatively strong upward trend.The UKs July public sector net borrowing and seasonally adjusted retail sales figures will be released in ten minutes.On August 21, the Chongqing Municipal Peoples Government issued the "Chongqing Municipal 15th Five-Year Plan for the Construction of a Beautiful Chongqing (2026-2030)," which proposes to promote the low-carbon upgrading of transportation equipment. The plan calls for actively promoting new energy vehicles, advancing the electrification of public sector vehicles, and promoting the application of pure electric and hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles. It also calls for the construction of zero-carbon transportation corridors, establishing "zero-carbon corridors," implementing the scrapping and replacement of old operating vessels, and promoting new energy and clean energy-powered vessels. Furthermore, it aims to promote energy-saving and carbon-reducing retrofits of existing transportation infrastructure and construct a number of low-carbon stations, wharves, and highway service areas.Market news: Members of the SK Hynix South Korean labor union will vote on the provisional wages and labor agreement for 2026 from August 24 to 25.On August 21, analysts at Daiwa Capital Markets noted in a report that European Central Bank policymakers may have been somewhat relieved so far by the relatively limited indirect impact of the energy shock on other commodity prices. "Of course, the pressure is mainly concentrated in the early stages of the production chain and in industries most vulnerable to oil and gas prices," they stated. However, with wholesale oil and gas prices rising again in recent weeks, the risk of further exacerbation of the indirect transmission effect and a second round of price impacts lasting longer is also increasing.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Struggle

Alice Wang

Jul 15, 2022 15:54

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Due to the ongoing pessimism, the S&P 500 has decreased somewhat during Thursday's trading session. At this time, it seems as if the market is prepared to go further, maybe attempting to approach the most recent lows at the 3637 level. In the end, this market should continue to see a lot of agitated behavior. I believe that fading rallies will remain a significant problem. The 50 Day EMA is now hanging in the general vicinity of the 3950 level, which serves as the ceiling at this time.


Ultimately, your indication to become engaged will be when you start to feel exhausted after brief rallies. Given the lack of global growth and the fact that inflation is still a problem, I do believe the downward trend will continue. Additionally, the Federal Reserve is rapidly tightening monetary policy, and as a result, a 100 basis point interest rate rise is being predicted. Due to the fact that the S&P 500 contains so many significant exporters, it is extremely probable that we will continue to see significant problems with the global economy.


In the end, a running season is approaching, so there could be some "hopium" waiting to happen, but after hearing J.P. Morgan declare, "We have never seen an economic scenario like this," during its results presentation, I don't think this earnings season will be cause for celebration. After a rally, I will suppress any indications of tiredness.