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On July 15, Xie Guangqi, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Peoples Bank of China, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that in the future, monetary and credit policies will shift from extensive expansion to intensive development, and the slowdown and improvement of loan quality may become one of the new normal aspects of macroeconomic operation.On July 15th, ship tracking data showed that two oil tankers carrying Iranian crude oil changed their destination signals to Pakistan, a rare move that may indicate these vessels are seeking a relatively safe anchorage to await developments following the reimposition of a US maritime blockade. The tankers "Rani" and "Amil," carrying a combined 1 million barrels of crude oil, changed their destination signals to Karachi, Pakistan, on Tuesday. However, it is unlikely that these two tankers will unload their cargo in Pakistan, as doing so could expose Pakistan to violating US sanctions. Kpler data shows that Pakistan has not imported Iranian crude oil for at least 10 years. Vortexa senior market analyst Xavier Tang stated that the ships "may choose to sail closer to Pakistan to avoid US naval vessels and mark Karachi as a transit destination along their route."On July 15, Zou Lan, spokesperson and vice governor of the Peoples Bank of China, said at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that in the first five months of this year, the proportion of enterprises using foreign exchange hedging rose to 34.4%, an increase of 4.5 percentage points compared with 2025, and the proportion of cross-border trade settlement in RMB was about 30%.On July 15, Zou Lan, spokesperson and vice governor of the Peoples Bank of China, said at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that, looking ahead, the factors affecting the RMB exchange rate are quite diverse, with both factors driving appreciation and depreciation, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to fluctuate in both directions.July 15th - Marine Le Pen, the far-right leader of France, has restarted her presidential campaign, which investment institutions see as yet another reason to avoid French government bonds. Institutions believe that Frances deteriorating fiscal situation, coupled with the presidential election potentially exacerbating political divisions, further weakens the prospects of this already heavily indebted and economically weak country. Polls show Le Pen currently leading in the presidential election next year to succeed incumbent President Macron. Her rising approval ratings will also make it more difficult for Prime Minister Le Kohns government to control fiscal spending. Annalisa Piazza, portfolio manager at MFS Investment Management, stated that Le Pens low emphasis on fiscal discipline means "the risk is that the yield spread between French and German government bonds will remain high for a longer period." Ajay Rajadjaksha, global head of research at Barclays, said, "The market is worried about Le Pens populist fiscal policies, especially given that Frances debt-to-GDP ratio is already close to 120%. We expect Le Pens campaign to further increase the difficulty of fiscal consolidation in France."

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Struggle

Alice Wang

Jul 15, 2022 15:54

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Due to the ongoing pessimism, the S&P 500 has decreased somewhat during Thursday's trading session. At this time, it seems as if the market is prepared to go further, maybe attempting to approach the most recent lows at the 3637 level. In the end, this market should continue to see a lot of agitated behavior. I believe that fading rallies will remain a significant problem. The 50 Day EMA is now hanging in the general vicinity of the 3950 level, which serves as the ceiling at this time.


Ultimately, your indication to become engaged will be when you start to feel exhausted after brief rallies. Given the lack of global growth and the fact that inflation is still a problem, I do believe the downward trend will continue. Additionally, the Federal Reserve is rapidly tightening monetary policy, and as a result, a 100 basis point interest rate rise is being predicted. Due to the fact that the S&P 500 contains so many significant exporters, it is extremely probable that we will continue to see significant problems with the global economy.


In the end, a running season is approaching, so there could be some "hopium" waiting to happen, but after hearing J.P. Morgan declare, "We have never seen an economic scenario like this," during its results presentation, I don't think this earnings season will be cause for celebration. After a rally, I will suppress any indications of tiredness.