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On March 23, Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that the central bank should not base its policy decisions on short-term factors related to the conflict between the US and Israel in Iran. Milan said, "We should gather all the relevant information before we really change our view. And I think its too early to have a clear understanding of what will happen over the next 12 months." The conflict in the Middle East has led to a sharp rise in oil prices, which could put upward pressure on inflation and negatively impact economic growth and the labor market. The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged again at its meeting last week, marking the second consecutive time it has made this decision. Policymakers acknowledged that economic uncertainty has increased due to the escalating conflict, and Fed Chairman Powell emphasized that officials need to see more progress in reducing inflation. Milan opposed this decision, preferring a 25-basis-point rate cut. However, Milan acknowledged that if oil prices remain high, it could gradually affect other goods and services sectors, but he stated that his pre-war expectation of four rate cuts this year remains unchanged.Federal Reserve Governor Milan: If it appears that the effects of the oil shock will spill over into inflation expectations after the first year, then you should be worried about a second-round effect.Federal Reserve Governor Milan: In my summary of economic projections, I raised my year-end inflation dot plot to 2.7%, expecting overall inflation to rise.General Motors: Initiates regulated public road testing of next-generation autonomous driving technology.Federal Reserve Governor Milan: The risks of fulfilling a dual mandate are now increasing.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Struggle

Alice Wang

Jul 15, 2022 15:54

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Due to the ongoing pessimism, the S&P 500 has decreased somewhat during Thursday's trading session. At this time, it seems as if the market is prepared to go further, maybe attempting to approach the most recent lows at the 3637 level. In the end, this market should continue to see a lot of agitated behavior. I believe that fading rallies will remain a significant problem. The 50 Day EMA is now hanging in the general vicinity of the 3950 level, which serves as the ceiling at this time.


Ultimately, your indication to become engaged will be when you start to feel exhausted after brief rallies. Given the lack of global growth and the fact that inflation is still a problem, I do believe the downward trend will continue. Additionally, the Federal Reserve is rapidly tightening monetary policy, and as a result, a 100 basis point interest rate rise is being predicted. Due to the fact that the S&P 500 contains so many significant exporters, it is extremely probable that we will continue to see significant problems with the global economy.


In the end, a running season is approaching, so there could be some "hopium" waiting to happen, but after hearing J.P. Morgan declare, "We have never seen an economic scenario like this," during its results presentation, I don't think this earnings season will be cause for celebration. After a rally, I will suppress any indications of tiredness.

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