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August 25th - According to Iranian sources on the 25th local time, a source close to the Iranian negotiating team stated that Iran hopes to clearly convey its position and negotiating conditions regarding the Strait of Hormuz to the United States through Pakistan. The source said that during a meeting with visiting Pakistani Army Chief of Staff Mohammad Munir on the 24th, Iran clearly explained its position to Pakistan. Irans conditions include the United States complying with the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding and fulfilling its relevant provisions, with Article 5 concerning Irans arrangements for the management of the Strait of Hormuz. The source indicated that Pakistan is seeking to convey these conditions to the United States.On August 25th, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Collins stated that she currently supports maintaining interest rates, but this stance depends on seeing further progress in inflation declining and gradually moving towards the Feds 2% target. Collins wrote, "To maintain the current target range for the interest rate, we need to continue to see evidence that inflation is indeed declining. If this evidence of a sustained decline in inflation does not emerge, I think monetary policy should be tightened as soon as possible." She stated that recent inflation data showed underlying price pressures were moderate, which was "somewhat encouraging," but added that monthly data could be volatile. "Whether the recent improvements can be sustained remains to be seen." Collins said that tighter interest rates, coupled with rising long-term yields, should alleviate some of the inflationary pressures from strong household and business consumption. She added that the impact of previous tariffs is expected to have largely subsided, and the impact of rising oil prices on inflation should also begin to weaken.Canadian Finance Minister: U.S. tariffs will have a real impact on Canada, and we must respond.On August 25th, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced retaliatory measures against the new tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump over the weekend, along with a support plan to help Canadian businesses impacted by the escalating trade war. Canada will double its existing retaliatory tariffs on US steel and aluminum products to 50%. The 50% tariff will also apply to US-made furniture, clothing and apparel, video game consoles, smartphones, and other electronic products. Overall, these retaliatory tariffs will affect approximately $20 billion worth of US imports, roughly equivalent to the tariffs Trump imposed on Canadian products on Saturday under a previously unused provision of the Tariff Act of 1930. This represents about 6% of Canadas total imports from the US last year. 1. According to the London Metal Exchange (LME) Commitment of Traders report, as of the week ending August 21, 2026, investment funds held 48,700 net long positions in LME copper, a decrease of 3,625 contracts from the previous week; 142,400 net long positions in LME aluminum, an increase of 306 contracts from the previous week; 55,000 net long positions in LME zinc, a decrease of 448 contracts from the previous week; 14,400 net long positions in LME nickel, an increase of 1,581 contracts from the previous week; 23,700 net short positions in LME lead, an increase of 3,299 contracts from the previous week; and 2,660 net long positions in LME tin, a decrease of 39 contracts from the previous week. 2. Data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that private exporters reported sales of 132,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, all for delivery in the 2026/2027 marketing year. 3. Federal Reserves Collins: Inflation remains too high, expressing concern about the Feds responsibility to maintain price stability. 4. In the absence of evidence of a sustained decline in inflation, it is appropriate to raise interest rates "as soon as possible." Given the limited additional tariffs and progress in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a decline in inflation is the most likely outcome. 5. According to the latest investor relations activity record disclosed by Zhongkuang Resources, the company has actively overcome difficulties such as tight land transport capacity in Africa and port congestion, and its transportation capacity continues to improve. As of the date of this report, the transportation of lithium concentrate from Bikita has returned to normal, and the supply of lithium concentrate can meet the raw material needs of the companys domestic smelting capacity. 6. Three industry sources indicated that Russia plans to extend its diesel export ban until the end of September, given the continued fuel shortage in the country and the fact that many refineries remain shut down after multiple attacks by Ukrainian drones. 7. According to foreign media reports, the impact of El Niño on commodity crop production, especially palm oil, typically only becomes apparent after several months of sustained high temperatures and reduced rainfall. Dr. Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip, Director of the Malaysian Meteorological Department, recently pointed out that the probability of an El Niño event reaching an extremely strong level (i.e., a "super El Niño") between October and December is currently over 90%. 7. US President Trump: (Regarding Iran) He has been notified by the US Navy that all mines in international waters of the Strait of Hormuz have been removed and/or detonated. Iran has been notified that any ships or small boats placing new mines will be destroyed immediately and systematically. 8. As of August 25, the national soybean oil port inventory was 973,000 tons, compared to 985,000 tons on August 18, a decrease of 12,000 tons week-on-week. 9. US ADP employment change for the week ending August 8 was 11,750, compared to 9,500 previously. Private sector employers added an average of 11,750 jobs per week. Business hiring increased for the second consecutive week.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Struggle

Alice Wang

Jul 15, 2022 15:54

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Due to the ongoing pessimism, the S&P 500 has decreased somewhat during Thursday's trading session. At this time, it seems as if the market is prepared to go further, maybe attempting to approach the most recent lows at the 3637 level. In the end, this market should continue to see a lot of agitated behavior. I believe that fading rallies will remain a significant problem. The 50 Day EMA is now hanging in the general vicinity of the 3950 level, which serves as the ceiling at this time.


Ultimately, your indication to become engaged will be when you start to feel exhausted after brief rallies. Given the lack of global growth and the fact that inflation is still a problem, I do believe the downward trend will continue. Additionally, the Federal Reserve is rapidly tightening monetary policy, and as a result, a 100 basis point interest rate rise is being predicted. Due to the fact that the S&P 500 contains so many significant exporters, it is extremely probable that we will continue to see significant problems with the global economy.


In the end, a running season is approaching, so there could be some "hopium" waiting to happen, but after hearing J.P. Morgan declare, "We have never seen an economic scenario like this," during its results presentation, I don't think this earnings season will be cause for celebration. After a rally, I will suppress any indications of tiredness.