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On February 9th, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) released a report stating that in 2026, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in light commercial vehicles will continue to increase, with the overall penetration rate expected to reach 43%, including 34% for light trucks, 32% for mini-trucks, and 75% for light buses. The light commercial vehicle market in 2026 is expected to remain generally stable amidst structural adjustments, entering a new phase dominated by existing market share. Sales are expected to remain within a specific range, with growth primarily driven by the deepening of new energy transformation and expansion into overseas markets. Under the guidance of high-quality development, new energy penetration continues to accelerate, with overseas exports becoming a key pillar, and technological competition focusing on intelligentization. In 2025, light commercial vehicle sales reached 2.901 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. In 2026, sales are expected to increase slightly by 0.3%, reaching approximately 2.911 million units for the year.ECB Governing Council member Simkus: The economic environment is extremely fragile.ECB Governing Council member Simkus: Interest rates are at a neutral level, and economic growth is close to its potential level.February 9th - Analysts point out that gold prices rebounded above $5,000 per ounce, influenced by a weaker dollar and traders awaiting key US data releases later this week. ANZ analysts stated, "Investors have reaffirmed their long-term bullish view on precious metals." Research data shows that despite recent sell-offs, large institutional investors remain optimistic about gold, a view echoed by the Peoples Bank of China, which increased its gold holdings for the 15th consecutive month in January. Traders are currently awaiting US non-farm payroll data and the Consumer Price Index for further clues regarding the path of interest rate cuts.February 9th Futures News: The following are the warehouse receipts and changes for various commodities traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange: 1. International copper futures warehouse receipts: 12,564 tons, a decrease of 103 tons from the previous trading day; 2. Alumina futures warehouse receipts: 242,626 tons, an increase of 242,626 tons from the previous trading day; 3. Low-sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures warehouse receipts: 23,140 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 4. Zinc futures warehouse receipts: 31,264 tons, an increase of 176 tons from the previous trading day; 5. Medium-sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts: 3,464,000 barrels, unchanged from the previous trading day; 6. Stainless steel warehouse futures warehouse receipts: 53,463 tons, an increase of 5,723 tons from the previous trading day; 7. Lead futures warehouse receipts: 40,773 tons, an increase of 4,968 tons from the previous trading day; 8. Pulp warehouse futures warehouse receipts: 131,447 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 9. 10. Pulp mill futures warehouse receipts: 15,000 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 112,570 tons of natural rubber futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 500 tons from the previous trading day; 243,776 tons of hot-rolled coil futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 23,197 tons from the previous trading day; 6,337 tons of tin futures warehouse receipts, a decrease of 379 tons from the previous trading day; 51,004 tons of TSR20 rubber futures warehouse receipts, unchanged from the previous trading day; 318,546 kg of silver futures warehouse receipts, a decrease of 31,354 kg from the previous trading day; 104,052 kg of gold futures warehouse receipts, unchanged from the previous trading day; 32,270 tons of butadiene rubber futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 32,270 tons from the previous trading day; 17. Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 18. Petroleum asphalt plant warehouse futures warehouse receipts: 26,490 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 19. Petroleum asphalt warehouse futures warehouse receipts: 13,580 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 20. Aluminum futures warehouse receipts: 164,512 tons, an increase of 8,979 tons from the previous trading day; 21. Nickel futures warehouse receipts: 51,721 tons, an increase of 447 tons from the previous trading day; 22. Rebar warehouse futures warehouse receipts: 15,710 tons, a decrease of 305 tons from the previous trading day; 23. Copper futures warehouse receipts: 157,128 tons, a decrease of 3,044 tons from the previous trading day.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Struggle

Alice Wang

Jul 15, 2022 15:54

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Due to the ongoing pessimism, the S&P 500 has decreased somewhat during Thursday's trading session. At this time, it seems as if the market is prepared to go further, maybe attempting to approach the most recent lows at the 3637 level. In the end, this market should continue to see a lot of agitated behavior. I believe that fading rallies will remain a significant problem. The 50 Day EMA is now hanging in the general vicinity of the 3950 level, which serves as the ceiling at this time.


Ultimately, your indication to become engaged will be when you start to feel exhausted after brief rallies. Given the lack of global growth and the fact that inflation is still a problem, I do believe the downward trend will continue. Additionally, the Federal Reserve is rapidly tightening monetary policy, and as a result, a 100 basis point interest rate rise is being predicted. Due to the fact that the S&P 500 contains so many significant exporters, it is extremely probable that we will continue to see significant problems with the global economy.


In the end, a running season is approaching, so there could be some "hopium" waiting to happen, but after hearing J.P. Morgan declare, "We have never seen an economic scenario like this," during its results presentation, I don't think this earnings season will be cause for celebration. After a rally, I will suppress any indications of tiredness.