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July 15th Futures News: 1. International oil prices have risen by more than 11% in just two trading days this week, the largest two-day percentage increase since mid-March. As of July 14th, WTI crude oil futures for the first month rose by $7.93 per barrel, an increase of 11.10%; Brent crude oil futures for the first month rose by $8.72 per barrel, an increase of 11.47%. Shipping activity in the Gulf region has slowed significantly as risks continue to escalate. Shipping data shows that from July 11th to 13th, confirmed passage of ships carrying commodities fell to 11 per day, compared to 30 per day from July 1st to 10th. 2. Deutsche Bank believes that the sharp rise in oil prices is due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran, coupled with Trumps renewed hardline rhetoric on the Strait of Hormuz. The daily increase in Brent crude oil on the 13th was the largest since 2020, reigniting concerns about stagflation and pushing up interest rate expectations and global bond yields. At the same time, rising energy costs and geopolitical risks have also contributed to this situation.On July 15th, Wang Guanhua, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics and Deputy Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that in the first half of the year, enterprises placed greater emphasis on research and development innovation, continuously increasing investment in areas such as patents, software, and databases. In terms of proportion, investment in intellectual property products accounted for 13.8% of fixed asset investment, an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the first quarter. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in the first half of the year, investment in intellectual property products increased by 9.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.5 percentage points compared to the first quarter.On July 15th, the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office held a regular press conference. Taiwanese media reported that the Taiwanese military held its first "joint defense exercise" this week, simulating "threat scenarios such as detecting enemy ships setting sail and entering territorial waters," in order to respond to potential threats. What is your comment on this? Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, stated that the DPP authorities attempt to seek "independence" through force, escalating cross-strait confrontation, is the main culprit for the tense and unstable situation in the Taiwan Strait. Faced with the powerful Peoples Liberation Army, no matter how many exercises the DPP authorities conduct, it is all posturing and futile. It cannot change the inevitable defeat of "Taiwan independence," nor can it stop the historical trend of the inevitable reunification of the motherland.The main contract for low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose 6.00% intraday, currently trading at 4574.00 yuan/ton.Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: US inflation data fell short of expectations, easing concerns about interest rate hikes. Overnight, London spot gold prices fluctuated and strengthened, with COMEX July gold futures closing up 1.6% and SHFE gold up 0.89%. 1. US June CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year, a significant slowdown from Mays 4.2% increase; June core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, lower than the market expectation of 2.8% and the previous value of 2.9%. This further delayed market expectations for a Fed rate hike, weakening the dollar and pushing gold prices higher. However, the US-Iran conflict shows no signs of easing, the risk of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz remains, and oil prices and inflation stickiness may lead to fluctuations in July data. Last night, Warsh made his congressional debut, stating that even with Trumps criticism, he would act according to the data, and the June CPI slowdown does not mean the inflation "mission is accomplished." 2. Overall, gold prices have been mainly weak and corrective, influenced by geopolitical disturbances, recurring inflation, and Warshs hawkish stance. This indicates that the current bottoming-out range for gold is not stable. With geopolitical factors and Fed policies intertwined, there is significant divergence between bulls and bears, and caution is still advised.

E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Tech Sector Recovery Helping to Pare Earlier Losses

Cory Russell

Jul 15, 2022 15:14

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A jump in recession worries was sparked by dismal quarterly reports from two major U.S. banks and hotter-than-expected consumer and producer inflation data. As a consequence, September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are down as of late Thursday, although they are still off their intraday lows.


Following the release of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley's second-quarter results, the benchmark index started the cash market with a significant decline. Both disclosed declining profitability and issued warnings about an upcoming economic recession.


September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are now trading at 3795.50, down 9.0 or -0.24 percent, at 18:04 GMT. This is higher than the day's low of 3723.75. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is down $0.44 or 0.12%, trading at 378.39.


Late in the afternoon, losses are being reduced, and the technology sector is now in the black thanks to a recovery in semiconductor prices.

The near future

The response of traders at 3804.50 will probably influence the movement of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index into Thursday's closing.

Positive Scenario

The existence of buyers will be confirmed by a prolonged advance over 3804.50. Look for a probable burst into the minor retracement zone of 3837.00 to 3863.50 if this move generates enough upward momentum. The resistance cluster at 3922.00 is the next possible resistance after this location.


The primary trend will switch to up if a transaction is made through 3922.00. The uptrend will be confirmed by a move through 3950.00, but I won't start getting enthusiastic about the upside until I see a close over the main Fibonacci level at 3988.75.

Grizzly Situation

Sellers will be there if there is a persistent move below 3804.50. The short-term 50 percent mark at 3794.50 must be broken below to signal that the selling is intensifying. This might result in a swift breach into the 3757.75 short-term Fibonacci level. Before the intraday low at 3723.75, this is the final possible support.


The downtrend will be confirmed if 3723.75 is taken out, with 3639.00 serving as the next significant drop objective.

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