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Japans base money rate in June was -3.5% year-on-year, compared with -3.40% in the previous month.July 2, US President Trump said on the 1st that Israel has agreed to the necessary conditions for a 60-day ceasefire agreement with Hamas, and called on Hamas to accept the agreement. Trump posted on social media that the US and Israel held a long meeting on the situation in the Gaza Strip that day. Israel agreed to the necessary conditions for a 60-day ceasefire agreement, and Qatar and Egypt will submit the final text of the agreement. Trump said: "I hope Hamas can accept this agreement because the situation will not get better - it will only get worse." According to US media reports, Trump will meet with visiting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House on the 7th to discuss the situation in the Gaza Strip and the Iranian nuclear issue. This will be Netanyahus third visit to the United States since Trump returned to the White House in January this year.July 2, London spot gold prices rose 25.7% in the first half of 2025 (January 1 to June 30), the largest half-year increase since the second half of 2007. "International gold prices will remain in a volatile upward channel in the second half of the year." Bai Xue, senior deputy director of Fang Jinchengs research and development department, believes that the markets risk aversion demand will still exist in the second half of 2025, which will provide long-term support for gold prices. In addition, the global central banks willingness to allocate gold is still strong. As the credit risk of the US dollar intensifies, central banks of various countries will strengthen their gold reserve layout based on strategic security and asset allocation needs.U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson: (When asked if he thinks Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will cut interest rates before the fall) I think they may act earlier than the fall, but they will definitely cut interest rates in September at the latest.U.S. Treasury Secretary Benson: Its "a little confusing" that tariffs didnt push the Fed to cut rates.

US DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: BULLISH

Alice Wang

Jul 18, 2022 15:20

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After a US inflation data boosted expectations for a Federal Reserve rate rise this week, the US dollar increased and reached levels not seen since September 2002. In June, the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 9.1% as compared to the same month a year before, above the consensus estimate of 8.8%. Core inflation, which excludes the cost of gasoline and food, increased more than was predicted.


According to Fed Funds futures, this raised the likelihood of a 100 basis-point rate rise at the July 27 FOMC meeting to above 50%. These wagers decreased over the weekend but were still larger than they were before to the CPI report. Before the FOMC blackout period started on July 16, representatives from the Federal Reserve assisted in lowering such expectations.


According to the CFTC's most recent Commitments of Traders report, traders reduced their long bets on the US dollar for a second consecutive week. Despite the two-week fall, traders' net long positions in the USD have mainly not changed. The reference period for the data concluded on July 12, leaving markets in the dark about post-CPI positioning.

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