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The main contract of the Container Shipping Index (European line) fell 50.4 points during the day and is now at 1067.2 points, a drop of 4.51%.On September 19th, local time, US President Trump, while meeting with British Prime Minister Starmer at Chequers, the British Prime Ministers country residence, stated that the US is attempting to reclaim Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan. At a press conference, Trump criticized the previous US administrations decision and actions regarding the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. He said, "We are working hard to get it back."On September 19th, market analyst Haruya Ida reported that Japans core CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year in August, a significant decline from July but still well above the Bank of Japans 2% target. Overall CPI also reached 2.7% in August, with the core CPI excluding fresh food and energy remaining at a high 3.3%. Fluctuations in fresh food and energy prices are driving inflation, and the Bank of Japan should be far from complacent about inflation. The latest inflation data is not expected to impact todays Bank of Japan decision, with interest rates likely to remain unchanged. However, the central bank will remain vigilant, with a possible rate hike in October or December. Todays focus will be on the Bank of Japans policy announcement and a press conference by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda.Goldman Sachs: The Bank of England is expected to announce the next interest rate cut in February, followed by quarterly rate cuts, reaching a terminal rate of 3% by the end of 2026.Futures data from September 19th showed aluminum prices recently surging and then retreating, reaching a peak of 21,020 yuan/ton, a new high for the year. As of September 18th, the spot price of A00 aluminum was 20,780 yuan/ton, down 0.53% month-over-month and up 5.06% year-over-year. Key influencing factors: 1. Macroeconomic factors: The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September to 4.00%-4.25%. The dot plot suggests three rate cuts this year, fulfilling market expectations. Coupled with the dollar indexs post-dip recovery, aluminum prices surged and then retreated. 2. Fundamentals: Supply is performing well, with capacity utilization approaching 96%. Concentrated arrivals in some consumer areas have hindered inventory destocking. On the demand side, demand in the downstream sheet, strip, and foil sectors has recovered well, with aluminum bar and profile consumption also improving. Processing plant operating rates have increased to varying degrees, leading to a steady overall improvement in demand and strengthening support for prices. Looking at the future market, it is expected that the demand for stocking up before the holiday next week will drive aluminum prices to fluctuate and strengthen, with the reference range being 20,600-21,200 yuan/ton.

Stock Markets Continue to Put Up a Fight

Cory Russell

Jul 13, 2022 16:12

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The S&P 500 initially fell during the trading session on Tuesday but turned around to show signs of life.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

The S&P 500 has decreased significantly during Tuesday's trading session as a result of the ongoing disruptive behavior. At this time, it seems as if the market could attempt to rise, but before I consider a rally seriously, we would need to break above the 50 Day EMA. Beyond that, there is also the 4000 level, which has a significant psychological component, and the 4200 level, which has very strong structural resistance.


Alternatively, if we go below the candlestick's bottom during Tuesday's trading session, we might pass through the 3800 level and then fall considerably more. Given enough time, I believe that will happen more often than not, but at the moment, it seems like we are just passing the time and attempting to decide what to do next. It's also important to note that the general economic picture hasn't altered significantly and that all of the impulsive swings have been downward with the rare recovery.

 

Since most traders are ill-equipped to operate in a situation where businesses must really create in order to be rewarded in the market, it seems obvious that equities will continue to lose money as inflation and monetary tightening increase. Because the way the markets work is about to undergo a significant change, I would anticipate quite a bit of erratic behavior over the next several months. I'll still be playing this market by fading rallies.

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