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Torsten Slok, partner and chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said on May 9 that the new tariff policy puts the Federal Reserve in an "extremely difficult position" and that inflation and unemployment are expected to rise simultaneously. Normally, rising inflation should be accompanied by falling unemployment, but we are currently experiencing a stagflation shock, and the trade war has hit the US economy hard with the double blow of rising commodity prices and weak sales. Slok warned that the current trade policy may put the United States in an "active trade reset recession" and that the adjustments required for the US economy will be so large that it will inevitably lead to a recession.ECB President Rehn: The risks identified in March have largely become a reality.ECB board member Rehn: If forecasts are confirmed, a rate cut in June would be the right move.U.S. short-term Treasury yields rose in early trading to their highest level since mid-April.Germanys DAX index rose by about 0.7%, hitting a record high. A German government spokesman said earlier that German Chancellor Merz and Trump agreed on the need to quickly resolve the trade dispute during a phone call.

Stock Markets Continue to Put Up a Fight

Cory Russell

Jul 13, 2022 16:12

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The S&P 500 initially fell during the trading session on Tuesday but turned around to show signs of life.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

The S&P 500 has decreased significantly during Tuesday's trading session as a result of the ongoing disruptive behavior. At this time, it seems as if the market could attempt to rise, but before I consider a rally seriously, we would need to break above the 50 Day EMA. Beyond that, there is also the 4000 level, which has a significant psychological component, and the 4200 level, which has very strong structural resistance.


Alternatively, if we go below the candlestick's bottom during Tuesday's trading session, we might pass through the 3800 level and then fall considerably more. Given enough time, I believe that will happen more often than not, but at the moment, it seems like we are just passing the time and attempting to decide what to do next. It's also important to note that the general economic picture hasn't altered significantly and that all of the impulsive swings have been downward with the rare recovery.

 

Since most traders are ill-equipped to operate in a situation where businesses must really create in order to be rewarded in the market, it seems obvious that equities will continue to lose money as inflation and monetary tightening increase. Because the way the markets work is about to undergo a significant change, I would anticipate quite a bit of erratic behavior over the next several months. I'll still be playing this market by fading rallies.

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