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The coming weeks will be a critical period for the US stock market, one that will determine whether its latest rebound can continue. Employment data, key inflation indicators, and the Federal Reserves interest rate decision will all be released over the next 14 trading days, setting the market tone for investors. The stock market appears to be at a crossroads: the S&P 500 just posted its weakest monthly gain since March, with September historically its worst month. Meanwhile, market volatility has all but vanished. The VIX index, a fear index, has only touched the key 20 level once since late June. "Investors are right to be cautious in September," said Thomas Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors. "The Fed is resuming a modest rate-cutting cycle after a long pause, making it difficult for traders to determine their positioning." The long-term US stock bull predicts the S&P 500 will fall 5% to 10% this fall before rebounding to between 6,800 and 7,000 points.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: The EUs new 150 billion euro plan to accelerate investment in the EUs defense industry will benefit Poland the most.U.S. Trade Representative Greer: Continue to advance trade negotiations after the tariff ruling (made by the U.S. court).On August 31, Yuzhou Group announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that during the six months ending June 30, 2025, the contract sales amount reached RMB 3.729 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.21%; revenue was RMB 2.397 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 62.42%; the loss attributable to the parent companys owners was RMB 5.632 billion, and the loss attributable to the parent companys owners in the same period last year was RMB 6.256 billion.Kremlin: European countries are hindering Trumps efforts on Ukraine.

Markets Gripped by Recession Fears, US CPI in Focus

Skylar Shaw

Jul 13, 2022 16:21

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Tuesday saw a sea of red on the Asian stock market as risk appetite was stifled by concerns about the recession and a resurgent Covid-19 outbreak in China.

 

Prior to the US inflation data and earnings season, Wall Street's major indexes suffered overnight as investors fled to safety. Europe's energy crisis and increased caution in front of important economic data and bank profits are anticipated to cause markets to start lower there.


The dollar index (DXY) reached its greatest levels since 2002 in the currency markets, flexing its safe-haven capabilities. In the meanwhile, prices reached 1.0004 for the first time since December 2002 this morning, bringing the EUR/USD parity fantasy that much closer to reality. When it comes to commodities, gold is still down and unpopular, while demand worries have caused oil prices to decline.


The unease and gloom that permeate the financial markets may drive up the dollar more while driving down stock prices. The next US CPI data on Wednesday may cause a commotion since markets are still very volatile and sensitive to anything related to inflation.


Consumer confidence in Australia fell for the eighth consecutive month in July according to statistics.


Amid rising inflation, impending rises, and global unease, business confidence also fell short of expectations. Later this morning, the ZEW economic confidence poll for Germany will be released. A negative assessment might exacerbate the euro's problems and further devalue the single currency.

The US inflation data is what's important.


Investors are eagerly awaiting the publication of the US inflation data on Wednesday to see if prices are increasing once again or whether we have reached a high. Inflation is predicted to increase 8.8 percent year-over-year in June compared to 8.6 percent in May, according to a Bloomberg survey.

If predictions come true, consumer prices will have risen at the quickest rate since December 1981 when they increased by 8.9 percent. Such a scenario is likely to support market predictions of more aggressive Fed rate rises and eventually give dollar bulls new energy.


On Thursday, it could be a good idea to pay attention to the weekly unemployment claims report in addition to the US inflation statistics. There will also be a flurry of important announcements at the end of the week, including the most recent retail sales, industrial output, and consumer sentiment, all of which will shed light on the state of the US economy.

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