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On March 18th, Futures News reported that new energy vehicle sales reached 765,000 units in February, with a market penetration rate of 42.38%, a 2 percentage point increase month-on-month. According to data models from Zhuochuang Information, new energy vehicles substituted 3.75 million tons of gasoline in China in February, representing a substitution rate of 23.6%. Although the Spring Festival holiday boosted gasoline demand, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles remained consistently high. While purchase tax policies and other factors dampened consumer enthusiasm, the economic advantages of new energy vehicles are evident, and their market penetration rate is expected to continue to rise, further increasing their substitution rate for gasoline consumption.In an interview with Al Jazeera, Irans Foreign Minister stated that the new agreement will ensure safe passage under "specific conditions" and based on the interests of Iran and the region.1. Morgan Stanley: Powell may choose to ignore energy-driven inflation, posing a downside risk to the dollar. 2. Rabobank: With no signs of easing in the Middle East conflict, the dollar may still have room to strengthen further. 3. ANZ: The dollar has rebounded due to its safe-haven status, but this strength may be temporary as the currency remains overvalued. 4. TS Lombard: Believes the dollar is unlikely to see sustained appreciation at present, and will face further downward pressure in the next 3 to 6 months. 5. TD Securities: Remains committed to a weaker dollar forecast for 2026, citing waning US economic growth advantages, diminished safe-haven appeal, and a further intensification of "hedge against the US" trades. 6. HSBC: In the baseline scenario, if geopolitical premiums subside and the market returns to macroeconomic fundamentals, the dollar will resume its previous weakening trend. However, if energy inflation forces the Fed to return to a rate hike path, the dollar will experience an unexpected surge. 7. DBS Bank: Unless the Middle East conflict triggers an extremely severe long-term inflationary spiral and forces the market to completely erase expectations of two rate cuts in 2026, the US dollar will lack the unilateral upward momentum driven by the aggressive rate hike wave of 2022. March 18th - SMBC Nikko Securities economists stated that Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to avoid committing to a specific timetable for interest rate hikes at Thursdays press conference. However, if the summary of opinions from this meeting, to be released on March 30th, shows policymakers support further tightening, investors may further price in the possibility of an April rate hike. The market considers a 1% policy rate (currently 0.75%) to be still accommodative for the Bank of Japan, therefore, even a deterioration in the Middle East and increased global risk aversion are unlikely to prevent an April rate hike.Italian oil company Eni: The Gendallo and Gandang projects are expected to start production in 2028. Eni will achieve a stable peak production of 2 billion cubic feet per day for natural gas and 90,000 barrels per day for condensate by 2029.

Since the focus has shifted to the Fed's policies and oil prices have increased, the USD/CAD has remained relatively stable at 1.2900

Daniel Rogers

Jul 25, 2022 11:46

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For now, the USD/CAD is struggling due to its inability to stay above the 1.2920 level. Selling pressure and a decrease in the asset are to be expected as investors await the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement (Fed). The asset has been trading in a range of 1.2855 to 1.2937, but it showed strong recovery on Friday after maintaining its position around the weekly support level.

 

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will declare its monetary policy, hence the US dollar index (DXY) is likely to remain quiet until after the Fed's announcement. Because of the ongoing damage to US households from rising prices, an announcement of a rate hike is expected soon. The scale of the same, though, will remain the primary worry. There is a good possibility that the Fed will implement a second rate hike of 75 basis points (bps).

 

There is no question that the financial community has not found a significant indication that may suggest that the pricing pressures have reached their limit, but slowdown indicators have intensified as Friday's PMI remained negative and big-name Wall Street earnings are not appealing to investors.

 

The loonie remained weak even after the release of Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI). Total inflation for the year was 8.1%, which was up from 7.7% in the previous report but lower than the 8.4% forecast. There was also a rise of 10 basis points in the core CPI, which now stands at 6.20 percent rather than the previous edition's 6.10 percent.


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