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On August 24th, the A-share market continued its consolidation recently. Although the market has not lost its activity, risk appetite has weakened significantly, reflecting that funds have not immediately formed a new consensus for offensive moves after quickly realizing high-level growth. Overall, the industry logic is shifting from "single-track technology spillover" to a balanced pattern of "retaining the technology theme, providing support through dividends and defense, and rotating in pharmaceuticals and consumer goods to fill the gap." Looking ahead, our judgment is that the market has entered a consolidation phase, and there may still be fluctuations in the short term, but the probability of breaking through previous lows is low. The main areas to watch are: first, energy security and dividend assets such as oil and petrochemicals, coal, and banks, with the core logic being the stability of cash flow under high oil price fluctuations and the "defensive" attribute brought by low valuations; second, the narrowing focus on AI hard technology sectors, with a focus on optical modules, switches, servers, PCBs, semiconductor equipment materials, and HBM—sectors with verifiable interim reports and orders; and third, pharmaceuticals and some resilient domestic demand sectors, utilizing their low crowding and performance potential to hedge against technology volatility.On August 24th, the South Korean Marine Corps announced that the United States had canceled a joint amphibious landing exercise scheduled for next month, following Washingtons citing limited U.S. troop strength due to the war with Iran. A South Korean Marine Corps spokesperson stated that the two sides are still in close consultation regarding resuming the exercise. He did not specify what measures might be taken to prevent future cancellations or to make up for lost training opportunities. This cancellation comes after President Trump unexpectedly ordered a reduction in another annual joint military exercise last Friday, citing high costs and Seouls refusal to participate in the war with Iran.Ukrainian President Zelensky: Our naval drones are in operation. The enemy has a fleet. Its turning into scrap metal.Gaza government media office: 189,000 aid trucks were supposed to enter the Gaza Strip, but only 66,607 have entered so far.On August 24th, at the Xiaomi Xuanjie chip technology communication conference, Xiaomi announced its new product plans. The Xiaomi 18 Fold, the top-of-the-line foldable screen flagship in the Xiaomi 18 series, will be the first to be equipped with the Xuanjie O3 chip, and the new phone is scheduled to be officially launched in September; the Xiaomi Mi Pad 9 Pro Max will also be equipped with the Xuanjie O3 chip at the same time.

With traders awaiting UK Retail Sales and US PMI, GBP/USD is meeting resistance at 1.2000

Daniel Rogers

Jul 22, 2022 14:46

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The British pound has been under selling pressure against the US dollar throughout the Asian trading session as the pair attempts to break through the crucial 1.2000 barrier. The cable had previously seen a vertical up trend after buyers indicated interest from Thursday's low of 1.1890. The asset is expecting a correction, but this does not necessitate a bearish reversal.

 

The US dollar index (DXY) has experienced strong buying demand in the first hour of trading as investors bet on a rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week. Given the recent drop in US long-term inflation projections, the probability of a 100 bps rate hike has unquestionably increased. However, the current pricing pressures must be handled quickly lest they have a catastrophic impact. That's why the Fed may do nothing or declare a rate hike of 75 basis points.

 

The US S&P PMI data will be the focus of investors for the whole of today's session. In this update, the Global Composite data stands at 51.7, down from 52.3 in the last release. It's possible that the Manufacturing PMI may fall from 52.7 to 52. There is hope that the Services PMI would rise to 52.6 from 52.7. This will keep the DXY in a weak position.

 

With regards to the pound, all eyes will be on the latest Retail Sales report. The economy is -5.3 percent more vulnerable than it was in the last report, which was -4.7 percent, according to a preliminary evaluation. Sales at stores have been on the rise even before the recent spike in energy costs. Due to out-of-control inflation, the forecast for retail sales should have been raised. A smaller consensus, on the other hand, indicates that demand is poor across the board and that prices will not rise over their prior level regardless of pricing pressures.