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On January 31st, Peter Cardillo, Chief Market Strategist at Spartan Capital Securities, stated, "I dont want to say that Warshs nomination as the new Federal Reserve Chairman was entirely unexpected. He has always been considered hawkish, but recently he seems to be converging with Trumps position, making it a bit difficult to assess how the market will accept this nomination. We just need to see if he will be influenced by the White House. My guess is that he wont; he will examine issues very carefully and maintain a certain balance on inflation and the labor market. He may not be as decisive as Powell, but he wont be too far off."On January 31, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held its 24th collective study session on the afternoon of January 30, focusing on forward-looking planning and the development of future industries. Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, emphasized during the session that a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation is accelerating, with cutting-edge technologies constantly emerging, leading and supporting the rapid rise of future industries. He stressed the need to approach this from a strategic perspective of building a strong nation and achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, leveraging objective conditions and comparative advantages, adhering to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability and cultivating industries in a phased manner, to continuously achieve new breakthroughs in the development of my countrys future industries.On January 31, NASA announced that the Perseverance rover had successfully completed its first maneuver on the Martian surface using an AI-planned route. According to NASAs website, the demonstration mission, led by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, took place on December 8 and 10, 2025. The mission team used generative artificial intelligence with visual understanding capabilities to analyze high-resolution images taken by the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) and data on terrain and slope, identifying key terrain features such as rocks, sand ripples, and boulder deposits. This generated a continuous route with multiple path nodes, helping Perseverance safely traverse complex terrain. Previously, this work was primarily done by ground engineers. Perseverance stored the AI-generated path nodes in its memory and traveled approximately 210 meters on December 8 and another 246 meters two days later.According to Interfax news agency, production at Kazakhstans Tengiz oil field has resumed.On January 31st, the Institute of Finance and Banking of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released its "China Macroeconomic and Financial Analysis" report for the fourth quarter of 2025, which pointed out that in 2026, my countrys economic policy orientation will shift from "strengthening unconventional counter-cyclical adjustments" to "increasing the intensity of counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments." The macroeconomic and financial analysis team of the Institute of Finance and Banking of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences believes that in 2026, it is necessary to adhere to both policy support and reform and innovation, and to coordinate short-term macroeconomic control with medium- and long-term reform and governance. To this end, they propose three suggestions: First, fiscal and financial efforts should be coordinated to effectively unleash the potential of domestic demand; second, high-quality urban renewal should be used as a lever to stabilize investment; and third, innovative approaches to macroeconomic governance should be adopted to accelerate the repair of the balance sheets of micro-entities.

On the back of dismal BOJ Minutes and falling yields ahead of US data, the USD/JPY falls toward 136.00

Alina Haynes

Jul 26, 2022 11:55

 截屏2022-07-26 上午9.54.47.png

 

The USD/JPY pair is retesting its intraday low at 136.30 in Tokyo during the first hour of trading on Tuesday. As a result, the yen pair reverses the corrective loss from the previous day in reaction to falling US Treasury rates and conflicting comments from the minutes of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) Monetary Policy Meeting.

 

According to the minutes of their rate-setting meeting in June, Bank of Japan officials agreed that ultra-low interest rates must be maintained to support a fragile economy and ensure that rising inflation was supported by higher wages. According to the Minute statement, members agreed that the BOJ must support the economy, which is under pressure from rising commodity prices.

 

The fear of a recession has returned in other areas of the world despite US authorities' efforts to lessen it. Ben Harris, Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy, and Neil Mehrotra, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomics, two representatives of the US Treasury, recently voiced hope for a stronger US gross domestic product (GDP). While GDP shrank in the first quarter, aggregate income, which includes wages, business earnings, rental and interest income, continued to rise at an annual pace of 1.8 percent. This is known as gross domestic income (GDI).

 

A second quarter GDP decline would not indicate a recession owing to the underlying strength of the labour market, demand, and other indicators of economic health, according to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who addressed concerns about a US recession earlier in the week.

 

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for July fell to its lowest levels since mid-2020, posting -22.6 compared to -12.5 forecast and -17.7 previously, which is noteworthy given that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index printed -0.19 in June as opposed to the anticipated -0.03 figure.

 

In addition, Bloomberg's investigation shows that the absence of trade between Australia and China is causing the Chinese recession worries that are weighing on the economic slowdown in the major countries to also be driving down the USD/JPY exchange rate. According to Bloomberg, "China's economic slowdown is spreading to important exporting countries in Europe and East Asia through weakened demand for manufactured goods, forcing Germany and South Korea to declare unusual deficits with the second-largest economy."

 

Wall Street ended with a mixed showing, with the DJI30 and S&P 500 seeing relatively modest gains while the Nasdaq saw only small declines. The 10-year US Treasury rates, on the other hand, broke a three-day downward trend and rose by around 1.75 percent, returning to the 2.81 percent level recently. S&P 500 Futures saw a notable intraday loss of 0.37 percent as of publication.

 

The key indication for intraday change for pair traders appears to be the US CB Consumer Confidence for July, formerly 98.7. As the markets get ready for a 0.75 percent interest rate increase, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday will be crucial.


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