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The "Stay On" Camp: 1. Moodys: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, with a rate cut unlikely in the short term. Holding rates steady this year is the baseline scenario. If inflation expectations continue to rise, a rate hike may be the next step. 2. Nomura: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, with a reduced likelihood of a rate cut in the short term. Rates are likely to remain unchanged in 2026. 3. JPMorgan Chase: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady and for the remainder of the year to remain unchanged. The policy stance is likely to shift clearly from accommodative to neutral. 4. Wells Fargo: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady. A rate hike would require evidence of a significantly overheated labor market or a further deterioration in the inflation outlook. It is difficult to find justification for any action at this stage or in the foreseeable future. 5. BNY Mellon: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady. The statement is expected to suggest two-way risks to interest rates. The Fed is expected to remove its 2026 rate cut expectations, and there will be no rate cuts or hikes this year. Rate Cut Camp: 1. Goldman Sachs: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady and likely removes its previous forward guidance hinting at rate cuts; short-term rate hikes are unlikely, with rate cuts expected in June and December 2027. 2. UBS: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady and likely to formally abandon its dovish stance; still believes the Feds next move will be rate cuts, with 25 basis point cuts expected in March and June 2027. 3. Citigroup: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, but with easing tensions in the Middle East driving down oil prices and a weakening labor market, expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December. 4. Commerzbank: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady and likely abandons its dovish language. Rate cuts are expected to begin around mid-next year, accumulating to 75 basis point cuts by the end of 2027. Rate Hike Camp: 1. Capital Economics: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, with a high probability of two "insurance rate hikes" in December and early next year. 2. BNP Paribas: Expects the Fed to raise rates little before the November midterm elections, with the first rate hike likely in December at the earliest, and at a more moderate pace than in 2022. 3. Deutsche Bank: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, maintaining its baseline assessment of keeping rates unchanged for the long term, but the risk of future rate hikes is rising. 4. PGIM: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, with three rate hikes this year to curb overheating, three rate cuts in 2027, and one more in 2028, ultimately reaching a rate of 3.375%. Others: 1. Barclays: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, with forward guidance wording likely to be removed from the statement to reduce implications for future rate cuts. 2. Bank of America: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, with the statement likely to remove any mention of an accommodative bias and potentially adjust its description of job growth. 3. ANZ: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, with the statement likely to remove any accommodative wording and reaffirm its commitment to achieving its 2% inflation target. 4. Mitsubishi UFJ: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady. The upcoming FOMC meeting is crucial, not because of policy changes, but because of forward guidance. 5. Investment management firm MFS: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, potentially indicating a neutral monetary policy stance. Warsh may also make some changes, such as ceasing the use of the dot plot and reducing press conferences.Indonesias Ministry of Trade: From the demand side, global gold purchasing activity has slowed down due to continued volatility in international financial markets.The China Earthquake Networks Center officially reported that a magnitude 3.6 earthquake occurred at 13:11 on June 17 in Haixi Prefecture, Qinghai Province (37.86 degrees north latitude, 95.54 degrees east longitude), with a focal depth of 10 kilometers.According to a Reuters poll, 22 out of 35 economists expect the Indonesian central bank to raise its 7-day reverse repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.75% or higher on June 18.According to a Reuters survey, the Indonesian central banks 7-day reverse repo rate is expected to be 5.75% by the end of 2026 (previously expected to be 5.50%).

On the back of dismal BOJ Minutes and falling yields ahead of US data, the USD/JPY falls toward 136.00

Alina Haynes

Jul 26, 2022 11:55

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The USD/JPY pair is retesting its intraday low at 136.30 in Tokyo during the first hour of trading on Tuesday. As a result, the yen pair reverses the corrective loss from the previous day in reaction to falling US Treasury rates and conflicting comments from the minutes of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) Monetary Policy Meeting.

 

According to the minutes of their rate-setting meeting in June, Bank of Japan officials agreed that ultra-low interest rates must be maintained to support a fragile economy and ensure that rising inflation was supported by higher wages. According to the Minute statement, members agreed that the BOJ must support the economy, which is under pressure from rising commodity prices.

 

The fear of a recession has returned in other areas of the world despite US authorities' efforts to lessen it. Ben Harris, Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy, and Neil Mehrotra, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomics, two representatives of the US Treasury, recently voiced hope for a stronger US gross domestic product (GDP). While GDP shrank in the first quarter, aggregate income, which includes wages, business earnings, rental and interest income, continued to rise at an annual pace of 1.8 percent. This is known as gross domestic income (GDI).

 

A second quarter GDP decline would not indicate a recession owing to the underlying strength of the labour market, demand, and other indicators of economic health, according to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who addressed concerns about a US recession earlier in the week.

 

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for July fell to its lowest levels since mid-2020, posting -22.6 compared to -12.5 forecast and -17.7 previously, which is noteworthy given that the Chicago Fed National Activity Index printed -0.19 in June as opposed to the anticipated -0.03 figure.

 

In addition, Bloomberg's investigation shows that the absence of trade between Australia and China is causing the Chinese recession worries that are weighing on the economic slowdown in the major countries to also be driving down the USD/JPY exchange rate. According to Bloomberg, "China's economic slowdown is spreading to important exporting countries in Europe and East Asia through weakened demand for manufactured goods, forcing Germany and South Korea to declare unusual deficits with the second-largest economy."

 

Wall Street ended with a mixed showing, with the DJI30 and S&P 500 seeing relatively modest gains while the Nasdaq saw only small declines. The 10-year US Treasury rates, on the other hand, broke a three-day downward trend and rose by around 1.75 percent, returning to the 2.81 percent level recently. S&P 500 Futures saw a notable intraday loss of 0.37 percent as of publication.

 

The key indication for intraday change for pair traders appears to be the US CB Consumer Confidence for July, formerly 98.7. As the markets get ready for a 0.75 percent interest rate increase, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday will be crucial.


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