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August 23 (Xinhua) -- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during a meeting with media representatives on the 23rd that Ukraine is not yet in a position to hold elections during wartime, and that holding elections under the current circumstances would pose a significant danger of national disintegration. According to media reports, former Defense Minister Andriy Fedorov, who was dismissed by Zelenskyy, recently released a video calling for wartime elections in Ukraine, stating that the country is facing a governance crisis. Zelenskyy responded that day, saying that during the ongoing conflict, various parties have been pressuring Ukraine to hold wartime elections, but the prerequisite for such elections is that partner countries can provide Ukraine with specific conditions to ensure their safe and legal conduct. This would allow frontline Ukrainian soldiers and millions of Ukrainian citizens fleeing the war to participate in the elections safely, without the threat of attack.August 23 - The bond market has recently sent a clear signal to Treasury Secretary Bessant: dont try to sweep $40 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds under the rug and pretend everything is fine. Bessant announced plans to increase long-term Treasury repurchases this fall, pledged to use the Treasurys vast "toolbox" to support the market, and discussed upcoming measures to curb the ever-expanding U.S. debt burden. John Arnold, a former Enron energy trader, billionaire, and founder of the philanthropic venture capital firm Arnold, said the summers bond market turmoil may ultimately be just "another quickly subsided episode," but the bigger concern is that the lack of change in the U.S. fiscal situation will persist until it finally triggers a crisis. Tracy Chan, a global portfolio manager at Brandiwin, said she is very nervous because Bessant has failed to curb long-term Treasury yields. The bond markets performance suggests that bond vigilantes still dont trust him. Bessant needs to do more to convince investors that the Trump administration is serious about U.S. fiscal issues, but talking about increasing revenue through tax increases or austerity measures before the November midterm elections will be unpopular.On August 23, according to the Wall Street Journal, Russian military officers flew from St. Petersburg to the Kaliningrad exclave last month. Western intelligence officials said these officers oversaw mobilization preparations and procedures for the regions residents, including specific details on how to house, supply, and arm mobilization personnel. Intelligence officials stated that the planning exercises in Kaliningrad were just one of many nationwide drills designed to prepare for a "call to arms." Officials said the Kremlin has not yet decided whether to actually carry out such an operation, and a decision is likely to be made after the parliamentary elections at the end of September. However, despite the slow and costly progress, Putins determination to seize the entire Donbas region of eastern Ukraine may force him to take action. Kaliningrad, the location of last months mobilization test exercises, has recently received increasing attention. Western intelligence officials have warned that the exclave could play a role in Moscows military plans.August 23 – According to the Jerusalem Post and Al Mayadeen TV, a senior Iranian official stated that Iran has been invited to join the Mecca Mutual Defense Agreement established earlier this month by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. The invitation has not yet been officially confirmed by the Iranian Foreign Ministry or any of the three parties to the agreement. Mehdi Rahimi, head of the Islamic Consultative Conference News Agency, stated that Iran has received an invitation to join the Mecca Agreement, and the matter is under review. Rahimi added that countries in the region are "moving in the direction of seeking a regional security umbrella," and called this a victory for Iran, as it has long been advocating for this.On August 23, Syrian Transitional Government Foreign Minister Shibani stated in an interview with Reuters on the 22nd that Syria expects to resume negotiations with Israel soon on a security agreement, hoping the agreement will facilitate Israels withdrawal from Syrian territory. Shibani said that negotiations between Syria and Israel on a security agreement have been stalled since the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iraq conflict this year, but he anticipates they will resume. The United States is pressuring Israel to return to dialogue. Shibani also stated that the Syrian Transitional Government "currently does not trust Israel," but the current priority is to stop Israeli attacks, therefore "confidence-building measures" are needed. Communication between Syria and Israel was severed after the attack on Syrias Abu Zukur airbase on August 18.

S&P 500 Could Tank Another 14% As Wyckoff Distribution Pattern Is Unfolding

Cameron Murphy

Apr 25, 2022 10:20

Last week, the S&P 500 tried to reverse and rally above the resistance level at 4500, only to be met with a fake breakout on April 21, 2022, which was a Wyckoff change of character bar (which also occurred in gold and crude oil, as seen in the video) to begin the downswing.


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Structure Analysis of the Wyckoff Distribution Pattern for the S&P 500

After the upthrust after distribution (UTAD) event in early January 2022, followed by a fast selloff as a sign of weakness (SOW) in late January 2022, distribution in the S&P 500 has been expressed since the topping pattern created in November 2021. For the Wyckoff event, see the graphic below:


Since the COVID-19 low in March 2020, the indicator of weakness in the S&P 500 has acted as the greatest down wave, signaling a harm to the uptrend. The range bound situation between 4200-4600 was characterized by the selling climax low on January 24, 2022, and the automatic rally (AR), which was a technical rally generated following an oversold position.


Because of the indication of weakness as a consequence of the distribution structure in late last year, the directional bias for the possible trading range as it was folding was negative. Furthermore, as explained in the film, the stock market breadth also provides negative signals.


The strong rally that began in mid-March 2022 resulted in a Wyckoff upthrust (or false breakout), which was followed by an increase in supply in the down wave, indicating additional weakness for the S&P 500.


In the S&P 500, there is a bearish signal.


Before the strong selloff last Thursday and Friday, watch the video below to learn how to detect the bearish signal based on the Wyckoff upthrust and the bearish volume pattern.

Price Prediction for the S&P 500 Using a Point-and-Figure Chart

While the S&P 500 remains in a trading range of 4100-4600, the directional bias remains negative unless otherwise shown. The price objective for the S&P 500 is projected using a Point and Figure chart based on the likely distribution structure in the trading range as it unfolds, as seen below:


If the S&P 500 breaks below the support at 4100 set by the swing low in February 2022, and then fails to rise above 4280, a selloff might occur, with the lower goal being reached.


According to the point-and-figure chart prediction, there are enough reasons for the S&P 500 to hit 3650, a 14 percent loss. In 2020, this was also the prior support level when the accumulation structure emerged. If it happens, this may be the bottom that the bulls are looking for.


To defy this bearish scenario, the S&P 500 must reverse its downtrend and recover above 4400, 4500, before committing above 4600 and testing it with a small retreat. Otherwise, the S&P 500's directional bias remains to the negative.


Despite outperformance in crude oil and gold futures after the Wyckoff change of character bar appeared on April 21, 2022 in the S&P 500, prominent industrial groupings such as oil and gas, gold miners, commodities milling, agricultural chemical, coal, and others have witnessed a significant selloff.


This shows a slowdown, if not a complete reversal, among these main industrial groupings. Ultimately, despite the fact that the S&P 500 has only down 11% year to far, this is still a stealth bear market, with several equities already down 50-80%. Visit TradePrecise.com to get free stock market updates by email.


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