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German Chancellor Merz: Irans nuclear program threatens regional stability and peace.March 1st - On March 1st local time, Iran released footage showing the successful strike of a US MQ-9 drone. The Public Relations Department of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced on the same day that the Revolutionary Guards air defense system, using an integrated air defense network controlled by the system in southern Iran, locked onto and destroyed a US military MQ-9 drone. The MQ-9 is the first attack drone designed specifically for long-range high-altitude surveillance.March 1st - Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank: Theres no doubt that the US-Israeli military action against Iran is a worrying escalation that will prompt investors to flock to the precious metals and energy sectors. How significant the impact will be is anyones guess, but given last weeks momentum, I wouldnt be surprised if gold hits a new all-time high.Amazon Web Services (AWS): We expect recovery to take several hours.March 1st - KCM Trade Chief Market Analyst Tim Waterer stated that gold demand is likely to be higher than usual when markets open on Monday. Given risks such as the potential duration of the conflict, which other countries might be drawn in, and inflation concerns, gold is expected to regain its role as the preferred safe-haven asset. With stocks and other risky assets potentially facing sell-offs, investors will be looking for optimal cash reserves, and gold is likely to be at the top of that list.

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Weekly Forecasts – Bond Yields Hammer Equity Sentiment

Skylar Shaw

Apr 25, 2022 10:31

It's going to be a busy week for US firms reporting first-quarter profits, with familiar names like General Electric (GE), Microsoft (MSFT), Ford (F), Twitter (TWTR), Amazon (AMZN), and Apple (APPL) all due to release their latest quarterly financial reports. Netflix (NFLX) and Tesla (TSLA) had drastically contrasting results this week, with Netflix (NFLX) falling over 35% on very low membership numbers and Tesla (TSLA) rising approximately 8% on strong sales and profitability. 


The fact that famed hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman sold his newly acquired Netflix position for a $400 million loss after the results does not bode well for other stay-at-home tech businesses. The earnings schedule for the next week might be full of surprises.

 

While the small print of firms' balance sheets will be scrutinized next week, the 800-pound monster in the room — US interest rates and government bond yields – will need even greater scrutiny. 


Market expectations for US rate rises have risen to the point that the market is now pricing in the Federal Reserve aggressively front-loading rate hikes, with four 50 basis point raises expected at the next four FOMC meetings. 


The last time the Fed raised interest rates by 50 basis points was in May of 2000. While increased interest rates may help banks make more money, the IT industry, particularly the big names like Apple and Amazon, becomes less tempting as interest rates rise.


After Thursday's bearish engulfing candle erased the preceding three days' gains, the S&P 500 is expected to close the week flat. The 200-day simple moving average behaved as resistance, and the indices are currently trading below all three moving averages (20, 50, and 200), which is still another bad indicator. If support at 4,361 is firmly broken, 4,270 seems to be the next target.

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