EUR/USD 1.16141
-0.097%
Gold 4434.77
-0.854%
Oil 89.430
-0.234%
USD/JPY 156.234
0.280%
GBP/USD 1.35183
-0.046%
GBP/JPY 211.206
0.242%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
On September 7th, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf announced on Sunday that Iran would adopt a more aggressive military posture in its war with the United States. Ghalibaf stated in a post, "If they havent understood by now, then they should understand before its too late that the rules of the game have changed. From now on, any act that infringes upon Irans interests and security will be met with a faster, fiercer, and more painful response." He had previously warned that Irans retaliatory actions would no longer be "reciprocal." Ghalibaf also acknowledged that Iran is facing severe economic pressure under the comprehensive sanctions and "strangulation" and isolation efforts led by the United States. He said, "Sharp exchange rate fluctuations, inflation, unemployment, and market management are fundamental challenges that have placed enormous pressure on peoples livelihoods." He further stated that Iran must commit to strengthening domestic production and utilizing technology to "develop short-term and permanent solutions."September 7th - Clashes between Yemeni government forces and Houthi rebels in Taiz and Hodeidah provinces entered their fourth day on the 6th. According to medical sources from both sides, the fighting has resulted in at least 117 deaths. A senior medical official operating with government forces on the west coast stated on the 6th that since the conflict began on the 3rd, 54 government soldiers have been killed and many others wounded. The fighting continues to escalate with no signs of abating. Meanwhile, medical personnel at a Houthi-controlled hospital in western Hodeidah province reported that 63 Houthi fighters have been killed in the clashes.September 7th - The 26th China International Fair for Investment and Trade (CIFIT) will be held in Xiamen, Fujian Province, from September 8th to 11th. This years CIFIT has attracted over 1,200 government agencies and business delegations from 129 countries and regions and 30 international organizations.Jared Kushner, Trumps son-in-law: We are working with Hamas to move towards disarmament and have reached an agreement with Israel on the ultimate goal of the Gaza Strip plan.The UK Maritime Trade Operations Office reports that 59 vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 48 hours.

S&P 500 Could Tank Another 14% As Wyckoff Distribution Pattern Is Unfolding

Cameron Murphy

Apr 25, 2022 10:20

Last week, the S&P 500 tried to reverse and rally above the resistance level at 4500, only to be met with a fake breakout on April 21, 2022, which was a Wyckoff change of character bar (which also occurred in gold and crude oil, as seen in the video) to begin the downswing.


Trading derivatives exposes your cash to a high degree of risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose.


Trading derivatives may not be appropriate for all investors, so make sure you understand the risks and get independent advice if required. A Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) is available on request from our offices or may be downloaded from our website. It should be read carefully before engaging in business with us. Raw Spread accounts have spreads as low as 0.0 pips and a fee of $3.50 for $100,000 moved. Spreads start at 1 pip, and there are no extra commission fees with a standard account. CFD index spreads start at 0.4 points. 


This site's content is not intended for inhabitants of any nation or territory where such distribution or use would be prohibited by local law or regulation.

Structure Analysis of the Wyckoff Distribution Pattern for the S&P 500

After the upthrust after distribution (UTAD) event in early January 2022, followed by a fast selloff as a sign of weakness (SOW) in late January 2022, distribution in the S&P 500 has been expressed since the topping pattern created in November 2021. For the Wyckoff event, see the graphic below:


Since the COVID-19 low in March 2020, the indicator of weakness in the S&P 500 has acted as the greatest down wave, signaling a harm to the uptrend. The range bound situation between 4200-4600 was characterized by the selling climax low on January 24, 2022, and the automatic rally (AR), which was a technical rally generated following an oversold position.


Because of the indication of weakness as a consequence of the distribution structure in late last year, the directional bias for the possible trading range as it was folding was negative. Furthermore, as explained in the film, the stock market breadth also provides negative signals.


The strong rally that began in mid-March 2022 resulted in a Wyckoff upthrust (or false breakout), which was followed by an increase in supply in the down wave, indicating additional weakness for the S&P 500.


In the S&P 500, there is a bearish signal.


Before the strong selloff last Thursday and Friday, watch the video below to learn how to detect the bearish signal based on the Wyckoff upthrust and the bearish volume pattern.

Price Prediction for the S&P 500 Using a Point-and-Figure Chart

While the S&P 500 remains in a trading range of 4100-4600, the directional bias remains negative unless otherwise shown. The price objective for the S&P 500 is projected using a Point and Figure chart based on the likely distribution structure in the trading range as it unfolds, as seen below:


If the S&P 500 breaks below the support at 4100 set by the swing low in February 2022, and then fails to rise above 4280, a selloff might occur, with the lower goal being reached.


According to the point-and-figure chart prediction, there are enough reasons for the S&P 500 to hit 3650, a 14 percent loss. In 2020, this was also the prior support level when the accumulation structure emerged. If it happens, this may be the bottom that the bulls are looking for.


To defy this bearish scenario, the S&P 500 must reverse its downtrend and recover above 4400, 4500, before committing above 4600 and testing it with a small retreat. Otherwise, the S&P 500's directional bias remains to the negative.


Despite outperformance in crude oil and gold futures after the Wyckoff change of character bar appeared on April 21, 2022 in the S&P 500, prominent industrial groupings such as oil and gas, gold miners, commodities milling, agricultural chemical, coal, and others have witnessed a significant selloff.


This shows a slowdown, if not a complete reversal, among these main industrial groupings. Ultimately, despite the fact that the S&P 500 has only down 11% year to far, this is still a stealth bear market, with several equities already down 50-80%. Visit TradePrecise.com to get free stock market updates by email.


Suggestion