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On July 15th, Zou Lan, spokesperson and vice governor of the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC), stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that the PBOCs various tools effectively offset the RMB 1 trillion liquidity gap caused by factors such as reserve requirement payments and cash injections in the first half of the year. The average overnight money market rate (DR001) for the first six months was 1.31%, indicating overall stable operation. Zou Lan also mentioned that to better meet the short-term liquidity management needs of the banking system and enhance the precision and effectiveness of monetary policy interest rate control, at the end of June, the PBOC added overnight reverse repurchase operations to its open market operations, further enriching its toolbox, and narrowed the range of interest rates for temporary repurchase operations from 70 basis points to 50 basis points. In addition, the PBOC created a repurchase tool for overseas central banks to facilitate RMB liquidity management and RMB bond asset allocation for overseas central banks and similar institutions; the first operation has recently been completed.On July 15th, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Jean-Claude Nagel stated that the ECB is closely monitoring energy price movements following the renewed escalation of the Middle East conflict and increased geopolitical uncertainty. He noted that the past few weeks have been "full of hope and disappointment." The renewed conflict between the US and Iran underscores the continued instability of the current situation. Nagel stated, "Energy price movements are a key factor in determining the future inflation outlook. Monetary policy will remain highly vigilant." The ECB will hold its policy meeting on July 22nd and 23rd, and will soon enter a pre-meeting quiet period. The market widely expects the bank to maintain interest rates unchanged. However, investors still anticipate policymakers will raise rates again later this year to curb inflationary pressures stemming from the Iranian conflict. Nagel emphasized that borrowing costs are currently at an "appropriate" level following the policy decision made in June. He said, "From a monetary policy perspective, continuing to act cautiously remains prudent, but decisive action will be taken if necessary."On July 15th, Xie Guangqi, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Peoples Bank of China, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that the central bank is continuously optimizing and improving the monetary policy framework, promoting the transformation of the monetary policy framework from primarily quantitative control to primarily price-based control, and striving to create a suitable monetary and financial environment. He added that the single indicator of loans can no longer fully reflect the financing situation of the real economy, and suggested that investors consider both loans and bonds together, while also paying closer attention to indicators such as interest rates and financing structure, which comprehensively reflect social financing conditions.On July 15, Xie Guangqi, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Peoples Bank of China, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that in the future, monetary and credit policies will shift from extensive expansion to intensive development, and the slowdown and improvement of loan quality may become one of the new normal aspects of macroeconomic operation.On July 15th, ship tracking data showed that two oil tankers carrying Iranian crude oil changed their destination signals to Pakistan, a rare move that may indicate these vessels are seeking a relatively safe anchorage to await developments following the reimposition of a US maritime blockade. The tankers "Rani" and "Amil," carrying a combined 1 million barrels of crude oil, changed their destination signals to Karachi, Pakistan, on Tuesday. However, it is unlikely that these two tankers will unload their cargo in Pakistan, as doing so could expose Pakistan to violating US sanctions. Kpler data shows that Pakistan has not imported Iranian crude oil for at least 10 years. Vortexa senior market analyst Xavier Tang stated that the ships "may choose to sail closer to Pakistan to avoid US naval vessels and mark Karachi as a transit destination along their route."

Price Analysis: EUR/JPY Daily Rising Wedge Targeting 143.00

Daniel Rogers

Nov 23, 2022 16:01

 截屏2022-11-23 上午9.53.21.png

 

The EUR/JPY continues to consolidate within an ascending wedge, after ending Tuesday with tiny losses of 0.04% due to a risk-on sentiment. At the start of the Asian trading session, the EUR/JPY exchange rate is 145.48, representing a slight gain of 0.01%.

 

As noted previously, a rising wedge emerged on the EUR/JPY daily chart, with the bulk of daily lows acting as dynamic support after the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). In spite of the fact that the cross continues to move steadily, there has been less price action during the past four days. This would suggest that the EUR/JPY exchange rate is stable or that a breakout is near.

 

If the EUR/JPY reaches 146.00, it could accelerate a rally toward the year-to-date (YTD) highs near 148.40; however, buyers must first overcome crucial resistance levels. The first is the rising wedge top trendline close to 146.50, followed by the 9 November daily high at 147.11. After the psychological 148.00 is reached, the next objective will be 149.00.

 

If the EUR/JPY breaks below the rising wedge, the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) around 144.12 would provide first support. A breach of this level will expose the 143.00 level, followed by the November 11 swing low of 142.54.