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On June 7th, US President Trump stated that it would be a mistake for Federal Reserve policymakers to raise interest rates after the US jobs data significantly exceeded expectations. He also insisted that he did not want to influence Kevin Warsh before his first Fed meeting. In an interview with NBC, Trump said, "These days, whenever the economic data is good, the market goes down because everyone thinks the Fed will raise rates. But theres absolutely no reason to raise rates." Trumps remarks further increased the economic and political pressure on Warsh. Trump stated, "Raising the benchmark interest rate is the wrong thing to do. In fact, we should lower rates." Trump added, "I work with Kevin now. I have a lot of respect for him, but my view is that when a countrys economy is doing well, it shouldnt be punished immediately by raising interest rates." He further added, "We have a debt problem, and a lot of other things to deal with, a lot of plans to move forward. I want to further increase defense spending."June 7th - According to a communique released after Sundays OPEC meeting, the seven OPEC+ member countries (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Algeria, and Oman) decided to raise their daily crude oil production ceiling by 188,000 barrels starting in July. The communique stated that the countries reiterated the importance of a cautious approach and will retain full flexibility to increase, suspend, or reverse voluntary production cuts. The seven countries will meet again on July 5th.US President Trump: There is no reason to raise interest rates (regarding the Federal Reserve).1. Monday: ① Data: Japans April trade balance; Switzerlands May consumer confidence index; Eurozones June Sentix investor confidence index. ② Holiday: Australia closed for the day. 2. Tuesday: ① Data: Chinas May trade balance; Germanys April seasonally adjusted trade balance and industrial production month-on-month; US April trade balance, NFIB small business confidence index, ADP employment change week-on-week, May existing home sales report, and April wholesale sales month-on-month report. ② Event: Apples WWDC developer conference, until June 13. 3. Wednesday: ① Data: US API and EIA crude oil inventory weekly report, May CPI; Chinas May CPI, PPI, M2 and other financial data (time to be determined). ② Event: EIA releases monthly short-term energy outlook report; Bank of Canada interest rate decision, press conference by the governor and senior deputy governor. ③ Earnings report: Oracle. 4. Thursday: ① Data: US initial jobless claims, May PPI, and EIA natural gas storage weekly report. ② Events: US 10-year Treasury auction; ECB interest rate decision and ECB presidents press conference; OPEC monthly report. 5. Friday: ① Data: German and French May CPI; UK April three-month GDP month-on-month rate, manufacturing output month-on-month rate, seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, industrial production month-on-month rate; US June one-year inflation rate expectation preliminary value, University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary value. ② Events: Huawei Developer Conference, SpaceX listing on Nasdaq, World Cup officially starts. 6. Saturday: ① Data: US total number of oil rigs for the week ending June 12.According to Saudi media Alhadath, Israel notified the United States in advance before attacking the southern suburbs of Beirut.

Price Analysis: EUR/JPY Daily Rising Wedge Targeting 143.00

Daniel Rogers

Nov 23, 2022 16:01

 截屏2022-11-23 上午9.53.21.png

 

The EUR/JPY continues to consolidate within an ascending wedge, after ending Tuesday with tiny losses of 0.04% due to a risk-on sentiment. At the start of the Asian trading session, the EUR/JPY exchange rate is 145.48, representing a slight gain of 0.01%.

 

As noted previously, a rising wedge emerged on the EUR/JPY daily chart, with the bulk of daily lows acting as dynamic support after the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). In spite of the fact that the cross continues to move steadily, there has been less price action during the past four days. This would suggest that the EUR/JPY exchange rate is stable or that a breakout is near.

 

If the EUR/JPY reaches 146.00, it could accelerate a rally toward the year-to-date (YTD) highs near 148.40; however, buyers must first overcome crucial resistance levels. The first is the rising wedge top trendline close to 146.50, followed by the 9 November daily high at 147.11. After the psychological 148.00 is reached, the next objective will be 149.00.

 

If the EUR/JPY breaks below the rising wedge, the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) around 144.12 would provide first support. A breach of this level will expose the 143.00 level, followed by the November 11 swing low of 142.54.

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