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US President Trump: I think we are closer to our goal (reaching a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine) than ever before.On December 16th, the FBI announced the arrest of four suspects on December 15th for plotting bomb attacks at multiple locations in California on New Years Eve. FBI Director Cash Patel posted on social media that the FBI thwarted a "credible and imminent terrorist threat" and arrested four individuals with ties to the Los Angeles area. These individuals identified themselves as members of a radical wing of the far-left group "Turtle Island Liberation Front" and are suspected of planning attacks using improvised explosive devices at five different locations in the Los Angeles area on New Years Eve. "Turtle Island" is an English name for North America.On December 16th, the Argentine government of President Millai announced adjustments to its monetary policy, stating it would begin an initiative to accumulate its depleted foreign exchange reserves. This represents a step closer to the free-floating exchange rate that investors have long desired. Starting in 2026, the pesos trading band will expand at the same rate as monthly inflation, instead of the current 1%. Novembers price increases of 2.5% mean that the trading band could expand at more than twice the current rate in the short term. The central bank stated on Monday that it will also begin accumulating reserves, with a base case scenario target of purchasing $10 billion next year, the specific amount potentially increasing based on currency demand. Following this news, Argentine sovereign bonds surged across the board. The more liquid bonds maturing in 2035 rose by more than 1 cent, reaching nearly 73 cents.On December 16th, local time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and German Chancellor André Merz held a joint press conference in Berlin. Zelensky stated that the US delegation did not make any demands on Ukraine regarding territorial concessions, but merely conveyed Russias position. Regarding the question of whether the US demanded Ukraine withdraw from the Donetsk region, Zelensky said: "I dont think the US made any demands. I believe we are strategic partners. Therefore, I would put it this way: we have heard statements from the US regarding Russian territorial claims or demands. We consider these to be Russian demands." He also stated that Ukraine had conveyed its position to the US.Lockheed Martin (LMT.N) has completed production of its first F-16 Block 70 fleet, delivering them to Bulgaria and Slovakia.

AUDUSD fluctuates near 0.6670 support as higher Treasury yields bolster US Dollar rebound

Daniel Rogers

Nov 18, 2022 15:14

 截屏2022-11-18 上午11.27.07.png

 

AUDUSD stalls at 0.6690 following a two-day decline as bears seek fresh signals to end a four-week uptrend. Friday's light economic calendar offers a challenge for sellers of the Australian dollar throughout the Asian trading session. Notwithstanding, the US Dollar's recovery, aided by increased Treasury yields, mixes with the market's pessimistic outlook to keep pair sellers upbeat.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) appears to be recovering from a three-month low hit earlier in the week, as a result of recent assertive words from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and better top-tier data from the United States. The dollar disregards Thursday's conflicting secondary numbers as a result.

 

The solid Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers for the month of October appeared to favor Fed hawks. However, James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, remarked on Thursday that the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy is not now deemed restrictive enough to reduce inflation. Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issued his most recent comments along the same vein. The Federal Reserve's Kashkari stated, "With inflation still high and monetary policy tightening already underway, it is unknown how high the US central bank will have to raise its policy rate."

 

In terms of data, the US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index declined to -19.4, compared to -6.2 market estimates and -8.8 previously. In addition, Housing Starts decreased by 4.2% month-over-month in October, following a 1.3% decline in September, and Building Permits decreased by 2.4%, compared to a 1.4% increase the previous month. In addition, Jobless Claims decreased to 222K for the week ending November 11 compared to the 225K predicted and upwardly revised 226K the previous week.

 

Domestically, Australia's Employment Change increased by 32,2K versus 15K market forecasts and 0.9K previously, while the Unemployment Rate decreased to 3.4% from 3.5% previously and 3.5% forecasts. Especially with the publication of the solid Wage Price Index, the employment data gained a boost in their ability to attract buyers. However, it appears that previous dovish remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials have kept AUDUSD purchasers on the board.

 

In addition, elevated tensions between Russia and Ukraine as a result of missile strikes against Poland and growing Covid counts in China weighed on market sentiment and the risk-barometer pair.

 

Wall Street ended in the red, echoing sentiment, while 10-year Treasury yields rose from a six-week low.

 

A lack of significant data/events could allow bears to catch their breath, but risk-averse sentiment and hawkish Fed concerns could drive the AUDUSD price close to the weekly loss.

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