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On August 21, HSBC issued a report lowering its target price for Pop Mart (09992.HK) by 19% to HK$136.5 from HK$168.9, while maintaining a "Hold" rating. The main reason for the downward revision of its earnings per share forecast was the disappointing first-half results. HSBC stated that the banks previous downgrade to "Hold" was due to the limited earnings visibility after adjustments for Labubus intellectual property products. Second-quarter revenue in 2026 was lower than the banks expectations, with overseas markets experiencing a larger-than-expected decline compared to the previous quarter. Following the 2026 forecast adjustment, HSBC maintained its 2026 and 2028 revenue/earnings CAGR forecasts for Pop Mart at 16% and 20% respectively, but lowered its 2027 and 2028 earnings forecasts by 16% and 18% respectively. The banks current earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 are 27% and 23% lower than the market consensus, respectively.On August 21, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, Liao Min, Vice Minister of Finance, stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the Ministry of Finance will place greater emphasis on improving the effectiveness and precision of fiscal macro-control. Focusing on the policy objectives of stabilizing growth, employment, and expectations, the Ministry will increase counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. While maintaining the necessary deficit size and expenditure intensity, it will also strive to optimize the expenditure structure and concentrate financial resources to ensure the fulfillment of major national strategic tasks. We will further focus on investing in people, reasonably increasing the proportion of public service expenditures in fiscal expenditures, particularly expanding development space by meeting peoples livelihood needs.On August 21, the State Council Information Office held a press conference this morning on the theme of "Starting the 15th Five-Year Plan," where officials from the Ministry of Finance introduced the relevant situation regarding leveraging the role of proactive fiscal policy to promote high-quality economic and social development. Liao Min, Vice Minister of Finance, stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, we will strive to build a stronger, more stable, balanced, and sustainable fiscal system to provide a solid fiscal guarantee for achieving decisive progress in basically realizing socialist modernization. In summary, this means striving to achieve six "further" goals: further strengthening fiscal strength; further optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditure, with more fiscal spending shifting towards investment in people, supporting domestic consumption, and enhancing the endogenous driving force of the domestic economic cycle; further improving the effectiveness of fiscal macro-control; further deepening fiscal and tax system reform; further improving the level of scientific fiscal management; and further mitigating risks in key fiscal areas.On August 21, the Russian Pacific Fleet announced on social media that a mixed strike force of the Pacific Fleet conducted missile launch training against simulated enemy ships in waters near the Southern Kuril Islands (known as the Northern Territories in Japan), and all targets were successfully hit. The post stated that the missile cruiser Varyag launched Vulcan anti-ship missiles, the nuclear-powered submarine Omsk launched Granit cruise missiles, and the Bastion shore-based anti-ship missile system launched Onyx anti-ship missiles. The training targets were more than 300 kilometers from the launch sites. The Russian side did not mention the timing of the training exercise. Separately, according to a report by Kyodo News on August 21, regarding Russias missile launch training near the disputed islands between Japan and Russia, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi told the media in Oman on August 20, during his visit there, that "strengthening military capabilities in the Northern Territories violates Japans position and is unacceptable."August 21 – According to the 2026 APEC Customs and Business Dialogue, in the first seven months of this year, Chinas total import and export volume with other APEC economies reached 18.03 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%. Currently, the Asia-Pacific region accounts for more than 60% of the global economy and its total trade volume is close to half of the global total. The growth rate of Chinas import and export with other APEC economies in the first seven months of this year was higher than the overall level of Chinas merchandise trade during the same period, demonstrating the enormous potential of regional economic cooperation.

AUDUSD fluctuates near 0.6670 support as higher Treasury yields bolster US Dollar rebound

Daniel Rogers

Nov 18, 2022 15:14

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AUDUSD stalls at 0.6690 following a two-day decline as bears seek fresh signals to end a four-week uptrend. Friday's light economic calendar offers a challenge for sellers of the Australian dollar throughout the Asian trading session. Notwithstanding, the US Dollar's recovery, aided by increased Treasury yields, mixes with the market's pessimistic outlook to keep pair sellers upbeat.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) appears to be recovering from a three-month low hit earlier in the week, as a result of recent assertive words from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and better top-tier data from the United States. The dollar disregards Thursday's conflicting secondary numbers as a result.

 

The solid Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers for the month of October appeared to favor Fed hawks. However, James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, remarked on Thursday that the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy is not now deemed restrictive enough to reduce inflation. Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issued his most recent comments along the same vein. The Federal Reserve's Kashkari stated, "With inflation still high and monetary policy tightening already underway, it is unknown how high the US central bank will have to raise its policy rate."

 

In terms of data, the US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index declined to -19.4, compared to -6.2 market estimates and -8.8 previously. In addition, Housing Starts decreased by 4.2% month-over-month in October, following a 1.3% decline in September, and Building Permits decreased by 2.4%, compared to a 1.4% increase the previous month. In addition, Jobless Claims decreased to 222K for the week ending November 11 compared to the 225K predicted and upwardly revised 226K the previous week.

 

Domestically, Australia's Employment Change increased by 32,2K versus 15K market forecasts and 0.9K previously, while the Unemployment Rate decreased to 3.4% from 3.5% previously and 3.5% forecasts. Especially with the publication of the solid Wage Price Index, the employment data gained a boost in their ability to attract buyers. However, it appears that previous dovish remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials have kept AUDUSD purchasers on the board.

 

In addition, elevated tensions between Russia and Ukraine as a result of missile strikes against Poland and growing Covid counts in China weighed on market sentiment and the risk-barometer pair.

 

Wall Street ended in the red, echoing sentiment, while 10-year Treasury yields rose from a six-week low.

 

A lack of significant data/events could allow bears to catch their breath, but risk-averse sentiment and hawkish Fed concerns could drive the AUDUSD price close to the weekly loss.

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