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March 9th - The domestic refined oil price adjustment window will reopen at 24:00 on March 9th. According to the latest information from Longzhong Information, gasoline is expected to increase by 695 yuan per ton, and diesel by 670 yuan per ton. This translates to an increase of 0.50 yuan per liter for 89-octane, 0.53 yuan per liter for 92-octane, 0.56 yuan per liter for 95-octane, and 0.57 yuan per liter for 0#. This predicted increase is higher than last Fridays estimate. Based on a 70-liter fuel tank, it is expected that filling up a private car will cost nearly 40 yuan more (compared to approximately 27 yuan more last Friday).Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: Gold prices fluctuated widely last week, with London spot gold falling 2.09% to $5168.006 per ounce. On Monday morning (March 9th), international crude oil prices opened sharply higher due to the Middle East situation. The focus now shifts to whether inflation expectations will influence the direction of the Federal Reserves monetary policy. Furthermore, Fridays unexpectedly weak non-farm payroll report has put the Fed in a dilemma. Gold is likely to maintain high-level fluctuations this week. 1. The US Labor Departments February non-farm payroll report showed an unexpected decrease of 92,000 jobs, far below the market expectation of an increase of 55,000, and the previous figure was also revised downwards. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, a new high since December 2025. Despite the significant deterioration in employment data, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year, indicating wage stickiness. The unexpectedly weak non-farm payroll report, coupled with escalating tensions in the Middle East pushing up oil prices, has put the Federal Reserve in a dilemma, and market concerns about stagflation risks have intensified. Geopolitically, the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, with the Strait of Hormuz virtually closed, led to a sharp jump in international oil prices. However, the US dollars safe-haven status was temporarily strengthened amid the conflict, which also suppressed gold prices. Regarding central banks, data from the Peoples Bank of China on March 7th showed that Chinas gold reserves reached 74.22 million ounces at the end of February, compared to 74.19 million ounces at the end of January, marking the 16th consecutive month of increases. In terms of the magnitude of the increases, the central bank has been moderately increasing its reserves for several months. At the end of November and December last year, gold reserves increased by 30,000 ounces month-on-month, while January this year saw an increase of 40,000 ounces, and February saw an increase of 30,000 ounces. 2. Gold is currently at a crossroads again, with the key factor being the ultimate outcome of the US-Iran conflict. Rising oil prices will trigger inflation expectations, which are generally favorable for gold prices. However, if inflation remains high, expectations for Fed rate cuts and easing will be further delayed, which is not beneficial for gold prices. Therefore, investors should closely monitor the US-Iran situation. The duration of the conflict and whether oil prices continue to exceed expectations will provide further direction. Short-term strategy timing remains more important than directional choice. 3. In the medium to long term, the backdrop of "de-dollarization" and the resurgence of stagflation expectations due to the US-Iran conflict itself presents significant upside potential. Therefore, core positions should maintain gold holdings on dips as a strategic hedge to cope with the potential return of safe-haven buying due to escalating geopolitical risks. Silver, platinum, and palladium prices have fallen in the short term due to concerns about the global economic outlook caused by the escalating US-Iran conflict. However, the performance of gold, the "ballast" of precious metals, should still be monitored, as its downward momentum is not strong. (This content and opinion are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.)South Korean President Lee Jae-myung: Fuel price cap will be implemented swiftly.South Korean President Lee Jae-myung: We will quickly find sources of crude oil other than the Strait of Hormuz.CNBCs Jim Cramer: I see no possibility of a "de-escalation" between the US, Israel, and Iran.

EURUSD attracts sells below 1.0400 in anticipation of Lagarde's ECB address

Daniel Rogers

Nov 18, 2022 15:12

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The EURUSD lacks direction at 1.0365 on Friday morning after registering its first daily loss in three sessions. In a poor session preceding Christine Lagarde's speech as president of the European Central Bank, the primary currency pair reduces its weekly gains (ECB).

 

The inability of the US Dollar to justify the recovery in US Treasury yields from their six-week low has recently exerted pressure on the EURUSD bearish. The cautious optimism around US President Joe Biden's effort to relax student loan regulations and the most recent survey on the Fed's next move may also pose a danger to pair sellers.

 

The Biden administration will seek the Supreme Court to reinstate the student loan debt relief program, according to CNBC. On the other hand, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and housing data for October may have put doubt on the Fed's recent hawkish language.

 

In addition, the most recent Reuters poll for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) indicates that the Fed will downshift in December to deliver a 50 basis point (bps) interest rate hike, but a longer period of US central bank tightening and a higher policy rate peak are the greatest risks to the current outlook.

 

Nonetheless, strong Fed language and weakening Eurozone data may be regarded as the pair's most recent difficulties. Thursday, James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, remarked that the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy is not now deemed restrictive enough to reduce inflation. In a similar vein, Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, stated: "With inflation remaining high and a substantial degree of monetary policy tightening already underway, it is questionable how high the US central bank will need to increase the policy rate."

 

Notably, a downward revision to Eurozone inflation data, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), to 10.6% (final) in October from 9.9% (preliminary) in September also favored EURUSD bears the day before.

 

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields recovered from a six-week low before remaining roughly unchanged at 3.77 percent, while the S&P 500 Futures remain uncertain as of press time.

 

As the pair loses bullish momentum, a remark from ECB President Lagarde will be crucial for EURUSD price action in the immediate future. However, hawkish words from Lagarde and lower US Existing Home Sales statistics for October will keep bulls in play.