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On July 29th, Berenberg Bank analyst Andrew Wishart noted in a report that the Bank of England is likely to maintain its key interest rate at 3.75% on Thursday. However, the central bank may warn of a potential rate hike if energy prices rise sharply or a second round of inflation occurs. However, this warning does not necessarily mean a rate hike is highly probable. He stated that the mere threat of a rate hike, coupled with rising oil prices, would be enough to push up interest rate expectations and mortgage costs, thereby reducing the risk of inflation. Instead, Wishart believes the Bank of England may actually resume rate cuts in December, subsequently lowering the policy rate to 3.0% by mid-2027. He pointed out that wage and service sector inflation are trending downwards, and US President Trump will want to avoid rising oil prices as the midterm elections approach.Yemeni diplomatic missions: The Saudi-US attack on Iraq is a blatant violation of international law. Iraq and its people have the right to legitimately retaliate against this crime.Russian Defense Ministry: Russian troops have taken control of Svetly and Novasich in eastern Ukraine.July 29th, Futures News: 1. According to feedback from cotton regulatory warehouses/delivery warehouses in Aksu, Kashgar, and Kuitun, the transfer of Xinjiang cotton to inland areas has slowed since mid-to-late July, and the pressure on loading and shipping at storage warehouses has decreased. This is particularly evident at warehouses in Shihezi, Changji, and Kuitun in northern Xinjiang. Industry insiders believe that in addition to the start of sales of central reserve cotton, this is also related to factors such as the increasingly obvious off-season trend for domestic sales in June and July, the continued increase in the proportion of production restrictions and reductions by small and medium-sized textile mills in inland areas, and the continuous weakening supply of high-quality, high-grade cotton ("double 29/double 30/double 31") in Xinjiang warehouses. 2. According to surveys/estimations of some cotton-related enterprises in Xinjiang, as of July 20, the commercial cotton inventory in Xinjiang may have dropped to around 1.45 million tons. Moreover, the resources from Kashgar, Kizilsu, Hotan and Aksu in southern Xinjiang account for a relatively high proportion. Meanwhile, the inventory of bonded warehouses in Xinjiang, such as Western Pearl Bonded Logistics, is mainly cotton from Kazakhstan, Afghanistan and Turkey. Therefore, it is expected that more Xinjiang textile enterprises will participate in the auction of the 2026 central reserve cotton in August and September, and increase the replenishment of high-index and high-spinnability cotton such as "double 29/double 30" to safely get through the "supply gap period".Italys average hourly wage rose 2.4% year-on-year in June, up from 2.40% previously.

AUDUSD fluctuates near 0.6670 support as higher Treasury yields bolster US Dollar rebound

Daniel Rogers

Nov 18, 2022 15:14

 截屏2022-11-18 上午11.27.07.png

 

AUDUSD stalls at 0.6690 following a two-day decline as bears seek fresh signals to end a four-week uptrend. Friday's light economic calendar offers a challenge for sellers of the Australian dollar throughout the Asian trading session. Notwithstanding, the US Dollar's recovery, aided by increased Treasury yields, mixes with the market's pessimistic outlook to keep pair sellers upbeat.

 

US Dollar Index (DXY) appears to be recovering from a three-month low hit earlier in the week, as a result of recent assertive words from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and better top-tier data from the United States. The dollar disregards Thursday's conflicting secondary numbers as a result.

 

The solid Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers for the month of October appeared to favor Fed hawks. However, James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, remarked on Thursday that the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy is not now deemed restrictive enough to reduce inflation. Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issued his most recent comments along the same vein. The Federal Reserve's Kashkari stated, "With inflation still high and monetary policy tightening already underway, it is unknown how high the US central bank will have to raise its policy rate."

 

In terms of data, the US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index declined to -19.4, compared to -6.2 market estimates and -8.8 previously. In addition, Housing Starts decreased by 4.2% month-over-month in October, following a 1.3% decline in September, and Building Permits decreased by 2.4%, compared to a 1.4% increase the previous month. In addition, Jobless Claims decreased to 222K for the week ending November 11 compared to the 225K predicted and upwardly revised 226K the previous week.

 

Domestically, Australia's Employment Change increased by 32,2K versus 15K market forecasts and 0.9K previously, while the Unemployment Rate decreased to 3.4% from 3.5% previously and 3.5% forecasts. Especially with the publication of the solid Wage Price Index, the employment data gained a boost in their ability to attract buyers. However, it appears that previous dovish remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials have kept AUDUSD purchasers on the board.

 

In addition, elevated tensions between Russia and Ukraine as a result of missile strikes against Poland and growing Covid counts in China weighed on market sentiment and the risk-barometer pair.

 

Wall Street ended in the red, echoing sentiment, while 10-year Treasury yields rose from a six-week low.

 

A lack of significant data/events could allow bears to catch their breath, but risk-averse sentiment and hawkish Fed concerns could drive the AUDUSD price close to the weekly loss.

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