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June 18th, John Velis, macro strategist for the Americas at Bank of New York Mellon, said that no interest rate changes are expected at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, but the new Summary of Economic Projections may affect the market. The dot plot will indicate that the rate cut in 2025 will be lower than previously expected. Given that the market expects nearly two rate cuts this year, a more hawkish dot plot may disrupt the market. The Federal Reserve has become increasingly cautious about cutting interest rates in 2025, noting that inflation remains the top priority for most members who have shared their ideas. Given the continued uncertainty in policy, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to soften its interest rate views. After June, there are only four Federal Reserve meetings left this year, and it seems increasingly unlikely that there will be time for aggressive easing during the year.Hong Kongs Hang Seng Index closed at 23,710.69 points on June 18 (Wednesday), down 269.61 points, or 1.12%. Hong Kongs Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5,214.41 points on June 18 (Wednesday), down 77.44 points, or 1.46%. The CSI 300 Index closed at 8,594.19 points on June 18 (Wednesday), down 100.48 points, or 1.16%. The H-share Index closed at 4,091.13 points on June 18 (Wednesday), down 36.17 points, or 0.88%.June 18, ING Bank commodity strategists said that the biggest concern in the oil market is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which will affect the flow of oil in the Persian Gulf. Nearly one-third of the worlds seaborne oil trade passes through this choke point. Severe disruptions in oil circulation are enough to push oil prices up to $120 a barrel. They predict that in this case, OPECs spare capacity will not help ease market tensions, as most of the spare capacity is located in the Persian Gulf. In this case, governments may have to use their strategic oil reserves, although this is only a temporary solution.Ukrainian MP: The Ukrainian Parliament passed a law on Ukrainian multiple citizenship.JD Logistics (02618.HK): Launched its first international self-operated express delivery service in Saudi Arabia.

AUDJPY fails to exceed 94.00 prior to Australian Employment data

Alina Haynes

Nov 16, 2022 15:00

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The AUDJPY pair faces headwinds in the early Tokyo session as it attempts to hold above the important support level of 94.00. The asset has encountered resistance at 94.50 and is projected to stay volatile until the release of Australian employment data on Thursday.

 

As geopolitical tensions increase, the value of the cross has decreased. Following the expansion of Russian separatist military action into Poland, the risk profile has deteriorated. Russia has denied any participation in the incident, while Poland has demanded a meeting with NATO countries.

 

Despite the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes on Tuesday, the risk indicator remained relatively stable. In spite of an extraordinary spike in inflation to 7.3%, the RBA minutes showed a 75% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike.

 

The board concurred that acting consistently on policy rates would enhance the public's and financial market participants' faith in the monetary policy framework. In addition, RBA policymakers believed that the Official Cash Rate (OCR) had risen substantially in a short time. In addition, the anticipated interest rate has been raised to 8%.

 

Meanwhile, Japanese investors reacted less harshly to Tuesday's disappointing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. Contrary to forecasts of 0.3% growth and a previous declaration of 0.9%, the Japanese economy contracted 0.3% during the third quarter. Compared to the expected expansion of 1.1% and the prior release of 3.5%, the economic catalyst has revealed a negative growth rate of 1.2% on an annualized basis.

 

This week, the most important asset trigger will be the Australian payroll data. According to the consensus, the economy added 15,000 jobs in October, compared to a paltry gain of 900 jobs in September. The predicted unemployment rate is 3.6%, up from 3.5% in the previous report.


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