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Hang Seng Index futures closed down 0.19% at 26,643 points in overnight trading, a discount of 6 points.On November 11th, JPMorgan Private Bank stated that the strong upward momentum in gold prices could push them above $5,000 per ounce next year, primarily driven by continued purchases by central banks in emerging market economies. Alex Wolf, Global Head of Macro and Fixed Income Strategy at the bank, pointed out that gold prices could reach $5,200 to $5,300 by the end of 2026, more than 25% higher than current trading levels. Global central bank gold purchases have been a key driver of the sharp rise in gold prices over the past two years. Policymakers seeking a store of value and asset diversification pushed gold prices to a record high of over $4,380 in October this year. Although prices have retreated somewhat in recent weeks, they are still up more than 50% year-to-date. Wolf stated that for many central banks, gold still represents a relatively small proportion of their foreign exchange reserves, especially in emerging market countries. He added, "We are still seeing them increasing their gold holdings, although the pace of purchases may slow due to rising prices."On November 11, Hamas spokesman Hazem Qasim stated on the 10th that Israel is deliberately expanding the "yellow line" area in northern Gaza, effectively altering the post-ceasefire border, and has failed to implement the previously agreed-upon ceasefire map. He described the recent Israeli military operations in several areas as a "systematic breach" of the ceasefire agreement. Qasim said Hamas, through the mediators, has requested heavy machinery to search for the bodies of Israeli detainees in the rubble, but continued Israeli restrictions are hindering the operation.U.S. Senate Republican Leader Thune: Im not sure if I can vote today.U.S. Senate Republican Leader Thune: (The voting process for the temporary funding bill) remains stalled.

Prediction for Silver Price: XAG/USD falls below $20.00 on risk aversion

Alina Haynes

Oct 11, 2022 14:22

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The silver price has fallen below the 100-day exponential moving average for four consecutive days due to a risk-off impulse triggered by the US central bank's forecasts for additional tightening, tensions emanating from the US-China chip embargo, and the aggravation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Therefore, traders seeking security kept the dollar in the lead. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD exchange rate is $19.59 per troy ounce, a decrease of 2.50%.

 

US markets ended the day in the red, extending their four-day losing streak. Monday's paucity of economic data releases in the United States forces market participants to rely on Federal Reserve speeches delivered by Vice-Chair Lael Brainard and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans.

 

Brainard stated that despite the fact that the US economy slowed "more than anticipated," many sectors continue to lag behind the effects of monetary policy. She stated that monetary policy must be tight for some time in order to ensure that inflation would return to the Fed's target level.

 

Previously, Charles Evans stated that the U.S. central bank may be able to lower inflation while avoiding a recession. He predicts that the Federal funds rate (FFR) will peak around 4.5% in early 2023 and remain elevated for an extended period of time.

 

The US Dollar Index increased by 0.35 percent to 113.145 as the situation between Russia and Ukraine escalated during the course of the day. In addition, the US embargo on semiconductors to China is anticipated to provoke reaction from one of the strongest economies in Asia.

 

Noting that the US bond market is closed is important, but there was no justification for the precious metals' poor start to the week. The yield on 10-year US bonds is currently 3.961%, whereas 10-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) will open on Tuesday yielding 1.62 %.

 

Despite this, most traders anticipate the release of US inflation data on Thursday. On a monthly basis, expectations are 0.2% over the previous figure, while on an annual basis, they are 8.1% due to dropping energy prices. Regarding core inflation, which excludes food and energy, the MoM is anticipated to decline by 0.4%, less than August's, while the YoY is anticipated to increase by 6.5%, greater than August's 6.3% increase.

 

The XAG/USD fell below the 100-day exponential moving average at $19.95, extending its losses close to the 20-day EMA at $19.53. Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching the 50-midline, which, if breached downwards, would indicate that sellers are gaining strength. Then, the XAG/initial USD's support would be the previously mentioned 20-day EMA, followed by the 50-day EMA at $19.40, which, once cleared, could pave the way for a retest of the daily low of $17.97 from September 28.


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