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January 22 – The U.S. economy grew slightly faster than initially projected in the third quarter, driven by strong exports and a reduced drag from inventory factors. Newly released data shows that the final annualized quarterly rate of U.S. real GDP in the third quarter, adjusted for inflation, was 4.4%, the fastest pace in two years. This is one of the strongest two consecutive quarters of growth since 2021, when the economy was still recovering from the pandemic. Businesses slowed their imports after a rush to buy goods at the beginning of the year before Trumps massive tariffs. However, despite the volatile trade policy, consumer and business spending remained strong. With strong economic growth, a stabilizing job market, and inflation still above the Federal Reserves target, policymakers are expected to keep interest rates unchanged at next weeks meeting.January 22nd - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. remained largely unchanged last week, staying at a low level compared to the volatile holiday season. According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday, initial jobless claims rose by 1,000 to 200,000 in the week ending January 17th. Continuing jobless claims fell to 1.85 million last week, the lowest level since November. Initial jobless claims typically fluctuate in the last few weeks of the year, which is normal during the holiday season. However, the latest weekly data shows that the current labor market is characterized by limited layoffs.Bank of America CEO Moynihan: Bank of America is in talks with the government on affordability issues.January 22nd - A flurry of policy deployments are underway to deepen the construction of a unified national market and thoroughly address "involutionary" competition. Unlike previous efforts, this time the focus is not solely on administrative measures, but on optimizing the competition mechanism institutionally to promote high-quality economic development. In recent days, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the State Administration for Market Regulation have all spoken out on "anti-involution," outlining measures to strengthen capacity management in key industries and regulate fiscal subsidies. Policy documents such as the Regulations on the Construction of a Unified National Market, the List of Items Hindering the Construction of a Unified National Market, and the List of Encouraged and Prohibited Items for Investment Promotion are expected to be released, providing greater legal protection and institutional support for "anti-involution."Bank of America CEO Moynihan: Credit card limit caps slow down spending and reduce availability.

Prediction for Silver Price: XAG/USD falls below $20.00 on risk aversion

Alina Haynes

Oct 11, 2022 14:22

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The silver price has fallen below the 100-day exponential moving average for four consecutive days due to a risk-off impulse triggered by the US central bank's forecasts for additional tightening, tensions emanating from the US-China chip embargo, and the aggravation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Therefore, traders seeking security kept the dollar in the lead. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD exchange rate is $19.59 per troy ounce, a decrease of 2.50%.

 

US markets ended the day in the red, extending their four-day losing streak. Monday's paucity of economic data releases in the United States forces market participants to rely on Federal Reserve speeches delivered by Vice-Chair Lael Brainard and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans.

 

Brainard stated that despite the fact that the US economy slowed "more than anticipated," many sectors continue to lag behind the effects of monetary policy. She stated that monetary policy must be tight for some time in order to ensure that inflation would return to the Fed's target level.

 

Previously, Charles Evans stated that the U.S. central bank may be able to lower inflation while avoiding a recession. He predicts that the Federal funds rate (FFR) will peak around 4.5% in early 2023 and remain elevated for an extended period of time.

 

The US Dollar Index increased by 0.35 percent to 113.145 as the situation between Russia and Ukraine escalated during the course of the day. In addition, the US embargo on semiconductors to China is anticipated to provoke reaction from one of the strongest economies in Asia.

 

Noting that the US bond market is closed is important, but there was no justification for the precious metals' poor start to the week. The yield on 10-year US bonds is currently 3.961%, whereas 10-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) will open on Tuesday yielding 1.62 %.

 

Despite this, most traders anticipate the release of US inflation data on Thursday. On a monthly basis, expectations are 0.2% over the previous figure, while on an annual basis, they are 8.1% due to dropping energy prices. Regarding core inflation, which excludes food and energy, the MoM is anticipated to decline by 0.4%, less than August's, while the YoY is anticipated to increase by 6.5%, greater than August's 6.3% increase.

 

The XAG/USD fell below the 100-day exponential moving average at $19.95, extending its losses close to the 20-day EMA at $19.53. Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching the 50-midline, which, if breached downwards, would indicate that sellers are gaining strength. Then, the XAG/initial USD's support would be the previously mentioned 20-day EMA, followed by the 50-day EMA at $19.40, which, once cleared, could pave the way for a retest of the daily low of $17.97 from September 28.


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