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Dutch union FNV: KLM ground staff will strike on September 24 and October 1.On September 16th, the U.S. builder confidence index remained unchanged in September, but lower mortgage rates and market expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve cut in the federal funds rate have driven up expectations for home sales in the coming months. Buddy Hughes, President of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), said that while builders are still dealing with rising construction costs, the recent decline in mortgage rates over the past month should help stimulate housing demand. NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz noted: "The Federal Reserve is expected to cut the federal funds rate at this weeks meeting, which will help lower loan rates for builders and developers. In addition, according to Freddie Mac data, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 23 basis points to 6.35% over the past four weeks. This is the lowest level since mid-October of last year and a positive sign for future housing demand."Trump: I dont want to make money, I want to stop the Russia-Ukraine conflict.The U.S. commercial inventory monthly rate was 0.2% in July, in line with expectations of 0.20% and the previous value of 0.20%.Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, said on September 16 that Canadas August inflation report was "quiet" and would not impact the Bank of Canadas interest rate decision on Wednesday. Porter expects the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week. He also noted that inflationary pressures will ease further in the future due to a moderation in the short-term underlying trend in core inflation, which is currently at a three-month annualized rate of 2.5%, well below the annual rate of approximately 3.1%.

Prediction for Silver Price: XAG/USD falls below $20.00 on risk aversion

Alina Haynes

Oct 11, 2022 14:22

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The silver price has fallen below the 100-day exponential moving average for four consecutive days due to a risk-off impulse triggered by the US central bank's forecasts for additional tightening, tensions emanating from the US-China chip embargo, and the aggravation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Therefore, traders seeking security kept the dollar in the lead. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD exchange rate is $19.59 per troy ounce, a decrease of 2.50%.

 

US markets ended the day in the red, extending their four-day losing streak. Monday's paucity of economic data releases in the United States forces market participants to rely on Federal Reserve speeches delivered by Vice-Chair Lael Brainard and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans.

 

Brainard stated that despite the fact that the US economy slowed "more than anticipated," many sectors continue to lag behind the effects of monetary policy. She stated that monetary policy must be tight for some time in order to ensure that inflation would return to the Fed's target level.

 

Previously, Charles Evans stated that the U.S. central bank may be able to lower inflation while avoiding a recession. He predicts that the Federal funds rate (FFR) will peak around 4.5% in early 2023 and remain elevated for an extended period of time.

 

The US Dollar Index increased by 0.35 percent to 113.145 as the situation between Russia and Ukraine escalated during the course of the day. In addition, the US embargo on semiconductors to China is anticipated to provoke reaction from one of the strongest economies in Asia.

 

Noting that the US bond market is closed is important, but there was no justification for the precious metals' poor start to the week. The yield on 10-year US bonds is currently 3.961%, whereas 10-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) will open on Tuesday yielding 1.62 %.

 

Despite this, most traders anticipate the release of US inflation data on Thursday. On a monthly basis, expectations are 0.2% over the previous figure, while on an annual basis, they are 8.1% due to dropping energy prices. Regarding core inflation, which excludes food and energy, the MoM is anticipated to decline by 0.4%, less than August's, while the YoY is anticipated to increase by 6.5%, greater than August's 6.3% increase.

 

The XAG/USD fell below the 100-day exponential moving average at $19.95, extending its losses close to the 20-day EMA at $19.53. Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching the 50-midline, which, if breached downwards, would indicate that sellers are gaining strength. Then, the XAG/initial USD's support would be the previously mentioned 20-day EMA, followed by the 50-day EMA at $19.40, which, once cleared, could pave the way for a retest of the daily low of $17.97 from September 28.


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