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BNP Paribas expects the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged in March, whereas it had previously anticipated a rate cut.March 11 – Due to persistent inflationary pressures, two major Australian banks expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise interest rates for the second consecutive week. National Australia Bank (NAB) and Westpac predicted on Wednesday that the RBA will raise rates by 25 basis points to 4.1% next week, in line with expectations from UBS and Deutsche Bank. NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld stated, “Given Australia’s relatively unfavorable inflation starting point and recent data confirming that the economy is running well above trend growth, the rationale for a rate hike in the near term is clear.” Westpac Chief Economist Luci Ellis said that the RBA’s belief that demand continues to exceed economic capacity and its willingness to address surging overall inflation to prevent a sustained rise in price expectations prompted her to change her forecast. Ellis stated, “There could be disagreements at next week’s meeting. Market participants should consider the possibility that the RBA might choose to wait until May to raise rates, but this is no longer our base case scenario.”March 11 (Kyodo News) – Japanese Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Ryosuke Akazawa stated on Wednesday during a parliamentary committee meeting, in response to questions from lawmakers, that the Japanese government has not ruled out the possibility of releasing national oil reserves "on its own initiative," rather than as part of a coordinated action. He added, "We will take all possible measures to ensure a stable energy supply." As of the end of December, Japans total oil reserves were sufficient to meet domestic consumption needs for 254 days, of which 146 days worth were held by the government, 101 days worth were held by the private sector, and the remainder were stored jointly with oil-producing countries.March 11th - This years government work report further clarified the need to "expand market access with a focus on the service sector," accelerating Beijings new round of opening up. In the first batch of pilot programs nationwide to expand opening up in areas such as value-added telecommunications and healthcare, Beijing became the first city in China to establish a foreign-invested enterprise specializing in human gene diagnosis and treatment technology. To date, more than 60 foreign-invested enterprises have participated in the pilot programs. Last year, Beijing saw over 2,400 new foreign-invested enterprises, a record high. According to the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce, this year will see the release of the 3.0 plan for the comprehensive demonstration zone for expanding opening up in the service sector, the implementation of actions to enhance the opening-up level of key industrial parks, the promotion of differentiated development of comprehensive bonded zones, and proactive alignment with high-standard international trade and economic rules, injecting new momentum into a higher level of opening up.Market news: The Saudi Foreign Minister spoke with the US Secretary of State to discuss Irans regional aggression.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD to fall below $1,660 as DXY strengthens and US Inflation is eyed

Daniel Rogers

Oct 11, 2022 14:28

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In early Asia, the gold price (XAU/USD) is exhibiting erratic movements below $1,670.00. The precious metal is anticipated to exhibit extreme volatility if it breaches the support level of $1,660.00 as the risk-off profile intensifies in response to Russia's military attacks on Ukraine. After breaking the Crimean bridge in Russia that serves as a supply route for Russian forces in southern Ukraine, Russia has escalated its missile attacks against Kiev.

 

In the meantime, the US dollar index (DXY) has strengthened in response to the gloomy market sentiment and established itself solidly above the round-level barrier of 113.00. Monday was a holiday in the United States, but S&P500 futures remained extremely volatile due to unfavorable market sentiment.

 

This week, the mega-event of US inflation data will provide clear direction for the future. Gasoline price declines have resulted in a reduced consensus for the US inflation rate. The economic statistics is estimated to be 8.1% lower. While core inflation, which excludes oil and food costs, is estimated to be 6.5% higher.

 

According to the CME Fedwatch tool, there is a greater than 78% chance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce a fourth consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points (bps).

 

On an hourly basis, gold prices have fallen below the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $1,672.61 and are approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $1,658.90. Around $1,690.00, the 50-period and 200-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) have formed a death cross, which strengthens the downward filters.

 

In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has moved into the negative zone between 20.00 and 40.00, indicating further weakness ahead.