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The U.S. State Department advises U.S. citizens worldwide to be more vigilant about security.US-Israel-Iran Conflict: ① Iran 1. Iran claims its domestically produced air defense system hit a US F-35 fighter jet. 2. Iran claims to have intercepted an F-15 fighter jet off its southern coast. 3. Iran attacks two locations in southern Israel, injuring 175 people. 4. Iranian drones attack Jewish military infrastructure at Ben Gurion International Airport in Israel. 5. Iran launches its 74th wave of strikes. The Iranian armed forces claim they have switched from defense to offense. 6. The Iranian parliament speaker warns of cracking down on financial institutions that fund US military operations. ② US 1. Bessenter: Sometimes, to de-escalate tensions, it is necessary to escalate actions. 2. US Treasury Secretary Bessenter stated that "50 days of rising prices could buy 50 years of Iranian denuclearization." 3. A poll by the US research group ARG shows Trumps approval rating at a record low, with a disapproval rating of 63% and a approval rating of only 34%. ③ Israel 1. An explosion is reported in central Israel, suspected to be an Iranian missile attack. 2. The Israeli military admits it failed to intercept an Iranian missile, resulting in over 100 injuries. 3. A fire broke out near Galilee in northern Israel, killing one person. 4. Netanyahu said he would directly strike the leader of Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. 5. Netanyahu claimed that "all countries should join the military action against Iran." 6. Israel said Tel Aviv was attacked by Iran, injuring at least seven people. 7. The Israeli military confirmed that a rocket from Lebanon was fired at a community along its northern border, reporting injuries and property damage. ④ Other 1. Explosions were heard in Baghdad, the capital of Iraq. 2. British officials said they had not found any plans or capabilities by Iran to attack Europe. 3. Saudi Ministry of Defense: Detected three ballistic missiles launched towards the Riyadh area; one was intercepted, and the other two landed in uninhabited areas. 4. The Turkish Foreign Minister reportedly discussed measures to end the war with the foreign ministers of Iran and Egypt, US officials, and EU foreign policy chiefs in a phone call. 5. US media: Saudi Arabia is trying to prevent the Houthi rebels in Yemen from joining the war against Iran. ⑤ Strait of Hormuz 1. Iran: Allows non-enemy vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. 2. Irans Revolutionary Guard proposed four measures in response to Trumps threats: complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz; attacks on all power plants, energy and information technology facilities; complete destruction of all US-owned companies in the Middle East; and attacks on power plants in Middle Eastern countries with US military bases. 3. Sources: Iran hopes to "monetize" control of the Strait of Hormuz, apparently referring to reports that each oil tanker would have to pay around $2 million to pass through the strait. Gaza Situation: 1. Israel launched airstrikes on several bridges in southern Lebanon. 2. Israeli military: Continues ground operations against key targets in southern Lebanon. 3. Hezbollah claims to have fired rockets into northern Israel, hitting military bases. Roscosmos stated that astronauts aboard the International Space Station will remotely control the Progress MS-33 cargo spacecraft to dock with the station, and they are ready to do so.March 23 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessant claimed that Russia will receive an additional $2 billion in budget revenue due to Washington easing sanctions on Russian energy operators amid the Middle East situation.March 23 - According to foreign media reports, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two major mortgage lenders controlled by the U.S. government, have reportedly begun purchasing large amounts of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) from the market to cope with widening bond spreads and increased market volatility. Sources indicate that these two semi-official institutions are attempting to take advantage of the market sell-off to further expand their already substantial bond and loan portfolios. Recently, U.S. President Trump instructed these two institutions to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to enhance housing affordability.

Prediction for Silver Price: XAG/USD falls below $20.00 on risk aversion

Alina Haynes

Oct 11, 2022 14:22

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The silver price has fallen below the 100-day exponential moving average for four consecutive days due to a risk-off impulse triggered by the US central bank's forecasts for additional tightening, tensions emanating from the US-China chip embargo, and the aggravation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Therefore, traders seeking security kept the dollar in the lead. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD exchange rate is $19.59 per troy ounce, a decrease of 2.50%.

 

US markets ended the day in the red, extending their four-day losing streak. Monday's paucity of economic data releases in the United States forces market participants to rely on Federal Reserve speeches delivered by Vice-Chair Lael Brainard and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans.

 

Brainard stated that despite the fact that the US economy slowed "more than anticipated," many sectors continue to lag behind the effects of monetary policy. She stated that monetary policy must be tight for some time in order to ensure that inflation would return to the Fed's target level.

 

Previously, Charles Evans stated that the U.S. central bank may be able to lower inflation while avoiding a recession. He predicts that the Federal funds rate (FFR) will peak around 4.5% in early 2023 and remain elevated for an extended period of time.

 

The US Dollar Index increased by 0.35 percent to 113.145 as the situation between Russia and Ukraine escalated during the course of the day. In addition, the US embargo on semiconductors to China is anticipated to provoke reaction from one of the strongest economies in Asia.

 

Noting that the US bond market is closed is important, but there was no justification for the precious metals' poor start to the week. The yield on 10-year US bonds is currently 3.961%, whereas 10-year US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) will open on Tuesday yielding 1.62 %.

 

Despite this, most traders anticipate the release of US inflation data on Thursday. On a monthly basis, expectations are 0.2% over the previous figure, while on an annual basis, they are 8.1% due to dropping energy prices. Regarding core inflation, which excludes food and energy, the MoM is anticipated to decline by 0.4%, less than August's, while the YoY is anticipated to increase by 6.5%, greater than August's 6.3% increase.

 

The XAG/USD fell below the 100-day exponential moving average at $19.95, extending its losses close to the 20-day EMA at $19.53. Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching the 50-midline, which, if breached downwards, would indicate that sellers are gaining strength. Then, the XAG/initial USD's support would be the previously mentioned 20-day EMA, followed by the 50-day EMA at $19.40, which, once cleared, could pave the way for a retest of the daily low of $17.97 from September 28.


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