Natural Gas Price Prediction - Prices to Fall on Warm Weather Forecast

After reaching 13-year highs late last week, natural gas prices fell sharply on Monday. In the next six to ten days, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts above-average temperatures. Natural gas supplies were stable from week to week.

The Energy Information Administration reports that the U.S. natural gas supply is virtually stable from week to week. The weekly average total supply of natural gas increased by 0.1%. The little gain was due to slightly greater domestic dry natural gas output, while average net imports from Canada remained unchanged.

Analytical Techniques

On Monday, natural gas prices fell by more than 11 percent. Near the 20-day moving average at $7.29, old support is now resistance as prices have fallen through it. Target support is near the 50-day moving average at 6.01.

Momentum has turned negative over the medium term. MACD (moving average convergence divergence) generated a crossover sell signal. This occurs when the MACD line (12-day moving average minus 26-day moving average) crosses below the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

The MACD histogram is in negative territory and sloping downward, indicating that prices will decline. As the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal, short-term momentum has turned negative.