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January 12th - Bond investors overall bets on the Federal Reserves policy path and the direction of the US Treasury market in 2026 appear to have room for further expansion. Last Fridays non-farm payroll report showed weaker-than-expected job growth, maintaining market expectations for further Fed rate cuts. This result confirms market expectations that short-term Treasury bonds (most sensitive to monetary policy) will outperform long-term Treasury bonds this year, widening the yield spread between the two. This strategy, known as the "steepening trade," was one of the most popular bond trades for most of last year and continues to work at the start of 2026. Pramod Atrouli, fixed-income portfolio manager at Capital Group, stated, "There are many scenarios over the next 12 to 24 months that are very favorable for the yield curve steepening trade." An analysis of 25 of the largest actively managed core bond funds by JPMorgan shows that, historically, these funds still have a high exposure to this trade.According to Iranian state media, Iran summoned the British ambassador after protesters tore down the Iranian flag from the Iranian embassy building in London.Market news: Home Depot and Google Cloud have jointly launched the Agentic AI tool to help customers and employees transform projects from "how to do it" to "completed".Domestic News: 1. The "Tianma-1000" unmanned transport aircraft successfully completed its maiden flight. 2. Shanxi Province issued consumption subsidies for home appliances and digital smart products in 2026. 3. Hong Kongs new budget will be announced on February 25. 4. China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC): Focusing on cracking down on major, malicious, and key illegal activities, and severely punishing all kinds of malicious illegal activities. 5. Chinese Embassy: Due to scheduling conflicts, Wang Yis planned visit to Somalia on January 9 has been postponed. 6. Wang Yi held a telephone conversation with the Somali Foreign Minister: Opposing Somalilands collusion with the Taiwan authorities to seek independence. 7. National Business Work Conference: In 2026, efforts will be accelerated to cultivate new growth points in service consumption and optimize the implementation of the trade-in policy for consumer goods. International News: 1. A curfew has been imposed in Narathiwat Province in southern Thailand. 2. Israeli forces are reportedly planning a new round of attacks on the Gaza Strip. 3. British officials: The possibility of Britain deploying troops to Greenland cannot be ruled out. 4. South Korean Presidential Office: Will investigate the truth behind North Koreas claim of a "drone intrusion" and release the results promptly. 5. Iranian President: The government endorses peaceful protests and is willing to meet with protest groups. 6. Danish Parliament Chief: It would be "foolish" to go to war over Greenland. 7. Israel demands the EU designate Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a "terrorist organization." 8. US Media: Trump received a briefing on options for striking Iran but has not yet made a final decision; the government is considering multiple options for intervention in Iran. 9. Trump again pressures Cuba, threatening that if Cuba does not reach an agreement soon, it will face a situation of "zero oil and zero funds" flowing into Cuba. 10. Iranian Parliament Speaker warns Trump that any attack would lead Iran to consider Israel and US bases in the region as "legitimate targets" and strike them.On January 11, Cuban Foreign Minister Rodriguez posted on social media that the United States’ behavior was like “criminal and out-of-control hegemony,” threatening not only the peace and security of Cuba and the Western Hemisphere, but also the entire world.

Gold Price Prediction - Gold Prices Fell Sharply as Yields Increased

Alina Haynes

May 10, 2022 11:13

Despite soaring inflation and falling economic growth, gold prices declined. The dollar strengthened against other major currencies. As a result of the Fed's rate tightening, benchmark yields continue to rise, as the ten-year Treasury yield rose to 3.185 percent.

 

In accordance with forecasts, wholesale inventories in the United States increased by 2.3% in March compared to the previous month. Year-over-year, wholesale inventories climbed by 22%. The calculation of the gross domestic product includes inventories.

 

Wednesday's inflation figures will likely indicate the magnitude of the Fed's next action.

Analytical Techniques

Gold prices experienced negative pressure and are on course to break below the 200-day moving average of $1,836. Near the 200-day moving average at 1,836 is viewed as support. Near the 10-day moving average of 1,882 is observed resistance.

 

Short-term momentum is negative as the Fast Stochastic generated a sell crossing signal. With a value of 13.5 below the oversold threshold of 20, the fast stochastic indicates that prices are oversold.

 

As the MACD produces a crossover sell signal, medium-term momentum has gone negative. This occurs when the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average passes beneath the 9-day moving average of the MACD line. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram shows a negative trajectory, indicating falling prices.

 

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