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On September 14th, according to foreign media reports, Trump defended his remarks calling for Irish reunification, calling them "fairly routine comments" and sticking to his previous statements. These remarks have sparked controversy in Northern Ireland. Speaking to reporters at the Irish Open in Dornberg, Ireland on Sunday, Trump said, "Ive always liked the Irish people. It seems to me that since theres Northern Ireland and Ireland, uniting them seems like one of the most logical things that has ever happened." "Thats just my personal opinion. By the way, a lot of people agree with that," Trump said. "I made what I consider a fairly routine comment, and I got a lot of support." Trumps remarks on Sunday came in response to a question about whether British Prime Minister Andy Burnham should hold a referendum on Irish reunification, although the US president avoided the specific question.On September 14th, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright warned oil traders not to expect a quick breakthrough on the Strait of Hormuz issue. Iran is planning to propose a shipping agreement to other Gulf states. In an interview on Sunday, Wright stated, "Expecting to reach a consensus agreement with Iran today is clearly not a good option." He said the market still needs to rely on alternative shipping routes. He estimated that these alternative routes can currently still supply about 10 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products per day. Wright said, "Therefore, the current global oil market supply is indeed tighter than we would like, but not excessively so." Wright also said that Irans nuclear program will end "in some way," adding, "We prefer a negotiated solution. If negotiations fail, they can continue with a secret, hidden, covered-up, and denied nuclear weapons program, but after that, Iran will face the U.S. military, and the U.S. military will ensure they cannot develop nuclear weapons."U.S. Energy Secretary Wright stated that the U.S. will terminate Irans nuclear program "no matter what"; the U.S. expressed concern over the suspension of inspections of Irans nuclear program. Hoping to reach a Hormuz-related agreement with Iran is not a prudent option.Musk confirmed that Tesla will livestream the launch event for its Roadster electric sports car.According to the Iranian news agency IRNA: The Israeli military continues its airstrikes in southern Lebanon, bombing several towns and areas in Nabatieh.

NZD/USD fades US inflation-driven increases below 0.64 in anticipation of China trade data

Alina Haynes

Jan 13, 2023 15:04

 NZD:USD.png

 

During a lackluster Asian session on Friday morning, the NZD/USD consolidates the US inflation-driven advances within a range of 0.6390 to 0.6385. This underscores traders' nervousness ahead of China's December trade data and the initial January readings of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI).

 

Notably, the weaker December US Consumer Price Index (CPI) fueled expectations of easy rate hikes and depressed the US Dollar the previous day. However, recent reports that the Fed's easy strategy could push the RBNZ to reverse its hawkish stance appeared to weigh on the NZD/USD exchange rate.

 

However, the US CPI for December met expectations of 6.5% YoY, compared to 7.1% before. In addition, the CPI excluding food and energy maintained the market consensus of 5.7% YoY, as opposed to the previous readings of 6.0%. Notable is the fact that the CPI MoM had its first negative result since June 2020, with a -0.1% figure for the designated month, compared to forecasts of 0.0% and the prior figure of 0.1%.

 

Fed Fund Futures related to the policy rate implied a nearly 100 percent chance of a 0.25% Fed rate hike in February, whilst the odds favoring a 50 bps rate hike in the same month fell to 8%.

 

Notably, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Patrick Harker was the first to predict mild rate hikes after the US CPI, which weighed on the US Dollar. In a similar spirit, Thomas Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, remarked that it "makes sense" for the Fed to take a more cautious approach to reducing inflation. However, James Bullard, chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, emphasized that the most likely scenario is inflation continuing longer than 2%, thus the policy rate will need to be higher for a longer period of time.

 

Wall Street was able to close in the black despite these maneuvers, while 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond rates reached monthly lows. Notable is the fact that S&P 500 Futures register small gains while 10-year US Treasury rates remain under pressure near 3.44 percent.

 

In the absence of substantial local data or events, the NZD/USD exchange rate may remain muted until China and the United States announce their most significant numbers. If the anticipated data can convince policy hawks in Beijing and Washington, the New Zealand currency could extend its recent slide.


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