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February 2nd - On February 1st local time, US President Trump, answering reporters questions about Iran at Mar-a-Lago, stated his hope that "a deal can be reached." Responding to Iranian Supreme Leader Khameneis warning that a US strike would trigger a regional war, Trump said that if a deal cannot be reached, "then well see if he (Khamenei) is right." Trump emphasized to reporters that the US has deployed "the worlds largest and most powerful ships" in the region. Earlier that day, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that Iran "remains confident" of reaching an agreement with the US on the nuclear issue.Domestic News: 1. The State Taxation Administration clarified the threshold for value-added tax (VAT) collection and management. 2. Wang Yi held strategic communication with Sergei Shoigu, Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. 3. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC): Investors should closely monitor changes in precious metal prices and reasonably control their position size. 4. The first-month performance reports of emerging electric vehicle manufacturers in the new year are released. Xiaomi, Wenjie, and HarmonyOS performed well, while BYDs production and sales both declined. 5. Guotou Silver LOF: Trading will be suspended from the opening of the market on February 2nd until 10:30 am on the same day. The daily price fluctuation limit after resumption of trading will be 10%. 6. China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom announced: The scope of application of VAT on telecommunications services has been adjusted, and the tax rate has increased to 9%, which will affect the companys revenue and profits. International News: 1. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament announced that the armies of European countries will be considered "terrorist organizations." 2. US media: The Speaker of the US House of Representatives said he is confident that the partial government shutdown will end by Tuesday. 3. Zelensky: A new round of trilateral talks between Ukraine, the US, and Russia will be held on February 4th and 5th. 4. Saudi stocks suffered their biggest drop since June last year due to geopolitical factors and a gold price plunge. 5. Indias budget: 400 billion rupees will be allocated to support the semiconductor manufacturing industry. 6. Indias stock market held a special trading session on Sunday due to the budget, with metal stocks and ETFs suffering heavy losses. 7. OPEC+ statement: Eight member countries will maintain their original plan to suspend increases in oil production in March. 8. US-Iran situation—① It is reported that high-ranking US and Israeli military officials held intensive talks this weekend to discuss a strike against Iran. ② Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei stated that if the US launches a war this time, it will trigger a regional conflict. ③ Iranian officials: Media reports about the Revolutionary Guard planning military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz are incorrect. ④ US media: The US military is strengthening its air defense deployment in the Middle East to prepare for potential action against Iran.OPEC+ Statement: The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) reiterated the importance of full compliance with oil production targets.On February 1st, OPEC+ held an online meeting to assess the global market situation and outlook. The eight participating countries reaffirmed the decision made on November 2nd, 2025, to suspend increased production in March 2026 due to seasonal factors. The eight countries reiterated that the previous production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day may be partially or fully restored depending on market developments, and this will be done gradually. Countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and while continuing efforts to maintain market stability, reiterated the importance of a cautious approach and sufficient flexibility to continue suspending (increased production) or canceling additional (production cuts), including the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day announced in November 2023. The organization will hold its next meeting on March 1st, 2026.OPEC+ statement: Reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining market stability, and stated that the global economic outlook is stable and the current oil market fundamentals are healthy with low inventory levels.

As fears of a US economic slowdown mount, the USD/JPY exchange rate attempts to push auctions below 132.00

Alina Haynes

Jan 09, 2023 14:46

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During the opening minutes of the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair breached the immediate support level of 132.0. Given the severe volatility of the US Dollar Index, it is anticipated that the major will modify its auction profile below 132.00. (DXY). As Japanese markets are closed on Monday in observance of Coming of Age Day, the USD/JPY exchange rate may decline.

 

As the S&P500 futures have prolonged their upward gallop in early Monday trade, the market players' appetite for risk has increased. In addition, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is feeling more offers after President Evans' speech at the Chicago Federal Reserve that was less forceful (Fed). The USD Index has extended its decline to approximately 103.35 and is projected to reach a six-month low of 103.00.

 

Evans, president of the Chicago Fed, was quoted in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) as saying, "It was likely that economic data would justify a 25 basis point raise in the policy rate at the Fed's next meeting," according to a Reuters story.

 

Friday, Atlanta Fed bank president Raphael Bostic told Reuters that the Federal Reserve's actions will depend on the status of the economy. In addition, he noted that "The US economy is certainly faltering" due to a significant decrease in housing and interest rate activities. In terms of policy rate forecasts, the Fed policymaker anticipates a terminal rate above 5% and the continuation of policy rate peaks until CY2024.

 

As reported by Reuters, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida indicated on Sunday that his administration and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) must reevaluate their relationship in guiding economic policy after a new BoJ governor is appointed in April. In a move that would open the stage for an exit from the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy, he stated that the government may reconsider its decade-long commitment to combat deflation with the Bank of Japan.