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Spot gold and silver rebounded quickly, currently trading at $4,864/oz and $83.40/oz respectively.10-year US Treasury futures fell 1 point, and 30-year futures fell 7 points.February 2nd - With Kevin Warshs nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman, market focus has abruptly shifted from short-term interest rates to the Feds $6.6 trillion balance sheet and its fundamental role in the market. Zach Griffiths, Head of Investment Grade Bonds and Macro Strategy at CreditSights, noted, "He has consistently been a vocal critic of the Feds balance sheet expansion." Warsh hopes to fundamentally reverse the trend of asset expansion and push for other reforms. However, this move will face complex challenges, directly impacting not only long-term interest rates but also the core markets upon which large global financial institutions rely for daily interbank lending. If policymakers agree to shrink the balance sheet, the transmission effect in the market could lead to a conflict between the Feds and the governments goals of reducing long-term borrowing costs. This could force the Treasury or other US agencies to become more deeply involved in market management, which will face even greater challenges given the continued rise in total borrowing demand and the already over $30 trillion national debt. PGIM points out that if Warshs predictions are true, then the pressure to regulate will shift to the Treasury.February 2nd - On February 1st local time, Mexican President Sinbaum announced plans to send humanitarian aid to Cuba, including food and other basic necessities, while simultaneously seeking to resume oil shipments to Cuba "through all diplomatic channels" despite US restrictions. On the evening of January 31st, US President Trump publicly stated that he had asked Sinbaum to halt oil shipments to Cuba. On the same day, Mexican Foreign Minister De la Fuente responded that Mexico would not suspend humanitarian aid to Cuba.February 2nd - On February 1st local time, US President Trump, answering reporters questions about Iran at Mar-a-Lago, stated his hope that "a deal can be reached." Responding to Iranian Supreme Leader Khameneis warning that a US strike would trigger a regional war, Trump said that if a deal cannot be reached, "then well see if he (Khamenei) is right." Trump emphasized to reporters that the US has deployed "the worlds largest and most powerful ships" in the region. Earlier that day, Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi stated that Iran "remains confident" of reaching an agreement with the US on the nuclear issue.

AUD/USD struggles to maintain a price over 0.6720 due to risk aversion ahead of FOMC minutes

Daniel Rogers

Jan 04, 2023 14:59

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The AUD/USD pair is under pressure throughout the Asian session to maintain above the immediate resistance level of 0.6720. As the risk-aversion theme influences the Australian Dollar, it is projected that the Aussie asset will retest the round-level support at 0.6700.

 

The negative close of the S&P500 on Tuesday and the dismal performance of the 500-stock U.S. index on a larger scale highlight market participants' pessimism. On Tuesday, the US Dollar Index (DXY) turned positive after tenaciously defending the 103.00 support. In contrast, demand for US government bonds soared, leading in a decline to 3.76 percent for 10-year Treasury yields.

 

Prior to the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, there has been a significant spike in demand for the US Dollar Index. Investors eagerly await monetary policy outlook indicators for CY2023.

 

The current tight labor market and low unemployment rate in the United States present the Federal Reserve (Fed) with a considerable challenge in its pursuit of a 2% inflation rate. A continuation of the labor market's greater monthly job gains is attracting higher employment expenses to compensate for the labor shortage, which may encourage future retail demand.

 

The Australian Dollar is failing to capitalize on Caixin Manufacturing PMI data that exceeded expectations. IHS Markit reported economic data of 49.0, which is higher than the consensus estimate of 48.8 but lower than the prior release of 49.4. The market anticipated a decline in PMI figures after detecting negative signals in China's official Manufacturing PMI data and the precarious condition of Covid-19 in China.

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